Stock Selection: Perplexity's picks for 2026-09-28
Perplexity picked NVDA, META, MSFT, AMD, SOXL for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +1.23%. Picks that beat SPY: 40%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Perplexity |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-28 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-29 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +1.23% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.37% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDA | -0.62% | 78% | -0.25% | No |
| 2 | META | -0.38% | 75% | -0.01% | No |
| 3 | MSFT | -0.81% | 72% | -0.44% | No |
| 4 | AMD | +0.92% | 68% | +1.28% | Yes |
| 5 | SOXL | +5.20% | 65% | +5.57% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equities closed higher on Friday with the S&P 500 up 0.5% and Nasdaq up 0.5%, supported by falling oil prices and optimism around US-China talks despite elevated Treasury yields. Technology and AI-related stocks led gains, with semiconductors and mega-cap software names showing relative strength into Monday's session. The 1-day horizon favors momentum names with near-term catalysts, strong institutional flows, and exposure to the ongoing AI infrastructure build-out.
Why each pick
NVDA
Thesis: NVIDIA remains the core AI infrastructure play with dominant datacenter GPU share and strong pricing power. The stock closed at $225.07 on September 25, up 0.22%, and has shown resilience despite bond yield pressure. With OpenAI Developer Day scheduled for September 29, NVDA often sees pre-event momentum as AI ecosystem announcements drive speculative flows. Semiconductor sector strength and positive analyst commentary on AI safety and demand support near-term upside. Risks: Elevated valuation multiples, potential profit-taking after recent gains, and sensitivity to Treasury yield moves could limit upside if risk sentiment deteriorates.
META
Thesis: Meta Platforms closed at $751.66 on September 25, down 3.33% on the day but up over 30% in the past month driven by strong reception of its Muse AI agent. Analyst commentary highlights Meta's transition from AI laggard to leader, with personalized AI commerce seen as a major profit driver. The pullback offers a potential entry point ahead of continued AI monetization newsflow. Strong institutional ownership and AI narrative alignment support a bounce. Risks: Recent sharp gains increase vulnerability to rotation, ad spending concerns persist, and Reality Labs losses remain a drag on sentiment.
MSFT
Thesis: Microsoft closed at $516.17 on September 25, up 3.66%, leading mega-cap tech gains. The company's Copilot AI reboot focused on workplace use cases has been well-received, and Azure cloud growth remains a key driver. With earnings approaching in late October and continued enterprise AI adoption, MSFT offers a blend of stability and AI upside. The stock's relative strength into Monday's session positions it well for continuation. Risks: High valuation leaves little room for execution missteps, cloud growth deceleration fears, and regulatory overhangs could cap near-term upside.
AMD
Thesis: AMD closed at $630.63 on September 25, up 0.22%, hitting new records as semiconductors bounced on AI optimism. The company's MI300 AI accelerator lineup continues to gain traction against NVIDIA, and datacenter revenue growth remains strong. Semiconductor sector momentum and AI infrastructure spending tailwinds support near-term outperformance. Risks: Intense competition in AI chips, customer concentration risk, and potential multiple compression if growth expectations are not met could weigh on shares.
SOXL
Thesis: The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF (SOXL) closed at $151.45 on September 25, up 3.50%, offering leveraged exposure to the semiconductor sector. With AI-driven chip demand remaining robust and the sector showing relative strength, SOXL provides amplified upside if semiconductor momentum continues into Monday. The ETF's top holdings include NVDA, AMD, and AVGO, aligning with the AI infrastructure thesis. Risks: Leveraged ETFs decay over time and are highly sensitive to intraday volatility; a sector pullback would magnify losses. Suitable only for very short-term tactical exposure.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | NVDA, XOM, AAPL, PLTR, MSFT | -0.96% | 0% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, TSLA, GOOGL | -1.03% | 0% |
| Grok 4.5 | NVDA, XLE, XOM, VLO, OXY | -1.22% | 0% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | NVDA, XOM, CVX, XLE, APA | -0.89% | 0% |
| GPT-6 | XOM, CVX, IONQ, COP, KOD | +0.20% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Perplexity's picks for 2026-09-28.
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