Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-11
Muse Spark 1.1 picked ORCL, ADBE, AAPL, NVDA, MSFT for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -0.45%. Picks that beat SPY: 40%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v7 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-10 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-11 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -0.45% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.85% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ORCL | -1.74% | 78% | -2.59% | No |
| 2 | ADBE | +1.37% | 74% | +0.51% | Yes |
| 3 | AAPL | +1.75% | 68% | +0.89% | Yes |
| 4 | NVDA | -0.03% | 65% | -0.88% | No |
| 5 | MSFT | +0.65% | 62% | -0.20% | No |
The model's market view
Market enters Sep 11 session with two major after-hours earnings beats (Adobe Q3 FY26 and Oracle Q1 FY27) and Apple iPhone 18 / first foldable iPhone Duo event from Sep 9 still driving momentum. Cleveland Fed nowcast for Aug CPI due Sep 11 points to +0.38% headline and +0.20% core, flat to soft vs July, which should support growth/mega-cap tech vs SPY. Earnings beat + raised guidance + AI cloud demand favors selective tech outperformance for 1 session.
Why each pick
ORCL
Oracle reported Q1 FY27 after close Sep 10: $19.35B revenue +29.6% YoY vs $19.13B consensus (+1.11% surprise) and EPS $1.92 vs $1.74 consensus (+10.35% surprise). Cloud $11.61B vs $11.5B est, Cloud Infrastructure $7.39B vs $7.22B est, Hardware +15.5% YoY. RPO momentum remains key AI infrastructure signal. Stock returned +5.5% past month vs S&P -1.4%. Overnight gap and AI capex narrative should drive beta-adjusted outperformance vs SPY on Sep 11. Risks: high expectations already, valuation pullback from Sep peak, any cautious call commentary on capex or margins could reverse after-hours gains.
ADBE
Adobe reported record Q3 FY26 after close Sep 10: $6.76B revenue +13% YoY, non-GAAP EPS $6.13 up from $5.31, beating estimates, total ARR $27.5B, RPO $22.16B, $2.52B operating cash flow. Raised FY26 targets: revenue $26.576-26.626B and non-GAAP EPS $24.45-24.50, plus Q4 target $6.80-6.85B and EPS $6.30-6.35. CEO cited 1B+ MAU and AI innovation strength. Earnings beat in oversold software name typically produces 1-day momentum vs SPY. Risks: intra-day -2.1% before print shows profit-taking, guidance raise may be modest vs whisper, broader software multiple compression if CPI hot.
AAPL
Apple held annual iPhone event Sep 9 announcing iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max and first foldable iPhone Duo plus Watch Series 12, Watch Ultra 4 and AirPods 5. Event was Sep 9 10am PT, so Sep 11 is T+2, historically positive as pre-order sentiment and analyst upgrades arrive. Product cycle breadth supports ASP and services attach. Large SPY weight but idiosyncratic catalyst gives edge for 1-day outperformance if CPI benign and tech risk-on. Risks: sell-the-news after event, high base, supply chain or pricing concerns could cap upside.
NVDA
Oracle cloud infrastructure beat $7.39B vs $7.22B and RPO growth narrative signals continued AI GPU demand, direct read-through to NVDA data center revenue. Oracle + Adobe AI commentary reinforces enterprise AI monetization. If CPI core prints ~0.20% as Cleveland Fed nowcasts, rate-sensitive mega-cap growth benefits most vs SPY. NVDA beta >1 amplifies upside in risk-on tape. Risks: crowded AI trade, any hawkish CPI surprise hurts high-multiple names first, Oracle capex sustainability questions could weigh on suppliers.
MSFT
MSFT is second-order beneficiary of both Oracle cloud validation and Adobe AI productivity narrative. Azure competes but broader cloud growth lifts all, and OpenAI/Adobe partnership ecosystem supports sentiment. Defensive mega-cap growth with strong balance sheet tends to outperform SPY on mixed CPI days when investors rotate to quality growth. Risks: correlation to SPY high so alpha small, any Azure growth concerns from Oracle share gains could limit relative performance.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | ACVA, ORCL, FEIM, CPRT, RH | +15.60% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | ORCL, XOM, CVX, ELV, CHTR | -0.14% | 20% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | ORCL, XLE, AAPL, CNQ, BIIB | -0.91% | 20% |
| Kimi | AAPL, XLE, SWKS, ELV, QRVO | +1.46% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | XLE, XOM, CVX, COP, AAPL | -0.18% | 20% |
| DeepSeek V3 | ORCL, RH, CPRT, XLE, BAC | -1.61% | 0% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-11.
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