Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-11
Grok 4.5 picked XLE, XOM, CVX, COP, AAPL for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -0.18%. Picks that beat SPY: 20%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v7 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-10 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-11 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -0.18% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +0.85% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XLE | +0.32% | 68% | -0.53% | No |
| 2 | XOM | +0.46% | 65% | -0.39% | No |
| 3 | CVX | +0.61% | 63% | -0.24% | No |
| 4 | COP | +0.23% | 60% | -0.63% | No |
| 5 | AAPL | +1.75% | 55% | +0.89% | Yes |
The model's market view
Markets closed lower on September 10 amid surging oil prices above $100 on prolonged US-Iran conflict, hotter PPI, and rising Treasury yields that lifted Fed hike odds for next week to around 70%. CPI on September 11 is the key catalyst; energy-driven inflation risks favor relative strength in oil-linked names versus the broader market, while rate-sensitive growth areas remain vulnerable.
Why each pick
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR directly captures the oil price spike and supply disruption theme from the Iran war. With WTI and Brent elevated and CPI likely to reflect energy costs, the sector should outperform SPY on the day even if broader equities soften on rate fears. Risks include a sudden de-escalation headline or weaker-than-expected energy contribution in CPI that triggers profit-taking after recent gains.
XOM
Exxon Mobil, the largest energy weight, benefits immediately from higher crude realizations and has shown relative resilience. Continued geopolitical premium in oil supports further outperformance versus SPY into the CPI print. Risks are a sharp oil reversal on any peace signals or broader equity risk-off that hits even defensive energy names.
CVX
Chevron offers similar direct oil leverage with strong integrated operations and has participated in the recent energy rotation. Higher oil sustains cash-flow upside and relative strength into Friday's data. Risks include sector-wide profit-taking if CPI comes in softer on core components or if yields spike further and pressure the whole market.
COP
ConocoPhillips provides pure upstream exposure that amplifies moves in crude prices. The ongoing Middle East supply concerns and elevated oil futures favor E&P names over the broader index for the one-day horizon. Risks center on oil volatility and any CPI outcome that shifts focus away from energy and toward rate-sensitive sectors.
AAPL
Apple posted notable strength on September 10 following the foldable iPhone launch and may retain positive momentum as a large-cap quality name. In a mixed post-CPI tape it can still outperform SPY on product-cycle enthusiasm. Risks are high: a hot CPI could hit growth and tech multiples hard, reversing the prior day's gains.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | ACVA, ORCL, FEIM, CPRT, RH | +15.60% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | ORCL, XOM, CVX, ELV, CHTR | -0.14% | 20% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | ORCL, ADBE, AAPL, NVDA, MSFT | -0.45% | 40% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | ORCL, XLE, AAPL, CNQ, BIIB | -0.91% | 20% |
| Kimi | AAPL, XLE, SWKS, ELV, QRVO | +1.46% | 60% |
| DeepSeek V3 | ORCL, RH, CPRT, XLE, BAC | -1.61% | 0% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-11.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.