Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-24
Grok 4.5 picked XLE, XOM, CVX, COP, OXY for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -1.87%. Picks that beat SPY: 0%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-24 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-25 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -1.87% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 0% |
| Benchmark return | +0.15% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XLE | -1.77% | 68% | -1.92% | No |
| 2 | XOM | -2.14% | 65% | -2.29% | No |
| 3 | CVX | -0.83% | 62% | -0.98% | No |
| 4 | COP | -1.61% | 60% | -1.76% | No |
| 5 | OXY | -2.25% | 58% | -2.40% | No |
The model's market view
US equities opened lower and remain under pressure from multi-decade-high Treasury yields (10-year near 5.13-5.15%) driven by strong economic data, sticky inflation fears, and rising oil prices linked to US-Iran tensions. Brent near $105 and WTI near $93-97 support the energy sector, which led gains yesterday and is outperforming intraday while tech and rate-sensitive names lag. The Trump-Xi meeting provides a potential volatility catalyst, but near-term relative strength favors energy over the broad market.
Why each pick
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR is the purest liquid vehicle for oil-price upside. With Brent above $105 on geopolitical supply risks and limited Hormuz traffic, the sector is the clear relative winner versus SPY amid the rates-driven risk-off tone. Thesis: continued oil strength or even stable elevated prices should drive outperformance over one session. Risks: sudden diplomatic progress on Iran or a sharp equity rebound that rotates capital back into growth.
XOM
Exxon Mobil, the largest integrated major, benefits directly from higher crude realizations and refining margins. It rose with energy yesterday and is higher intraday while the broad market declines. Thesis: oil-driven cash-flow tailwinds and defensive integrated model position it to outperform SPY on a 1-day horizon. Risks: rapid de-escalation in Middle East tensions or a broader equity risk-on move that leaves energy behind.
CVX
Chevron offers similar oil-price leverage with a strong balance sheet and dividend support. Sector leadership and elevated crude prices favor it versus the S&P 500, which is pressured by yields. Thesis: continued energy outperformance on geopolitical premium in oil. Risks: profit-taking after recent strength or a surprise drop in oil if talks with Iran advance.
COP
ConocoPhillips, a pure-play E&P with high oil weighting, amplifies the crude-price move more than integrated peers. Energy sector leadership and oil above $90 provide a clear relative edge versus SPY. Thesis: one-session continuation of oil-driven gains. Risks: higher beta to oil means faster downside if crude reverses on diplomacy headlines.
OXY
Occidental Petroleum carries elevated operational leverage to oil prices and has participated in the energy rebound. In a session dominated by rates pressure on growth stocks, OXY’s commodity exposure offers relative strength. Thesis: sustained elevated oil supports outperformance versus the benchmark. Risks: higher volatility and sensitivity to any sudden oil pullback or broader market rebound.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | CRWD, XLE, PANW, LMT, META | -2.30% | 0% |
| Claude Opus 5 | XLE, OIH, XOM, XLF, XLV | -1.49% | 0% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | GOOG, IONQ, MSFT, NVDA, SOXL | +3.69% | 100% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | AAPL, GOOG, NVDA, MSFT, SOXL | +2.44% | 80% |
| DeepSeek | NBIS, CRWV, GRAL, FRVO, P | -2.44% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-24.
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