Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-11
Grok 4.5 picked ORCL, DELL, HPE, NVDA, CPRT for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -3.96%. Picks that beat SPY: 20%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v7 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-11 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-14 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -3.96% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 20% |
| Benchmark return | -0.65% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ORCL | -7.23% | 72% | -6.57% | No |
| 2 | DELL | -4.07% | 65% | -3.42% | No |
| 3 | HPE | -8.34% | 62% | -7.69% | No |
| 4 | NVDA | -4.86% | 60% | -4.21% | No |
| 5 | CPRT | +1.43% | 58% | +2.08% | Yes |
The model's market view
Markets are rebounding after a rough week of losses driven by elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions and rising yields. August CPI came in slightly hotter than expected on core measures, reinforcing rate-hike odds for the upcoming FOMC, yet stocks rose as oil cooled and Oracle's strong AI cloud results provided a positive catalyst. Tech and industrials are leading the recovery while energy lags. Near-term tone is constructive on risk-on flows but remains sensitive to oil volatility and Fed pricing.
Why each pick
ORCL
Oracle reported fiscal Q1 results with 30% revenue growth and 121% surge in cloud infrastructure to $7.4B, plus over $30B in new AI contracts that lifted remaining performance obligations to $664B. Premarket and early session strength reflects investor relief that AI investments are monetizing. Thesis is residual momentum and potential further analyst upgrades carrying into the next session. Risks include valuation pressure if broader rate fears re-emerge or if guidance commentary is later viewed as insufficient.
DELL
Dell is benefiting from the same AI infrastructure demand highlighted by Oracle's results, with shares showing strong gains amid broader server and storage optimism. Thesis centers on continued rotation into AI hardware names that can deliver tangible revenue from data-center buildouts. Risks include high beta to semiconductor and tech sentiment, plus any disappointment on margin sustainability if component costs rise with oil or tariffs.
HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise is participating in the AI server and hybrid-cloud uplift, posting notable gains as investors favor companies positioned for enterprise AI deployments. Thesis is spillover strength from Oracle's cloud commentary and sector leadership in technology. Risks are execution on large deals, competition intensity, and sensitivity to higher rates that could slow enterprise IT spending.
NVDA
Nvidia remains the primary beneficiary of accelerated AI cloud spending, with Oracle's GPU delivery and contract wins reinforcing demand visibility. Thesis is that positive AI infrastructure news sustains momentum even after prior-week pressure. Risks include elevated valuation, potential profit-taking after the rebound, and any escalation in geopolitical or oil-driven inflation that hits growth stocks.
CPRT
Copart announced an all-cash acquisition of ACV Auctions that expands its digital dealer-to-dealer platform and is expected to be accretive longer term. Shares are reacting positively to the strategic expansion and cash-funded structure. Thesis is deal-related momentum and potential multiple expansion as the combined platform story is digested. Risks include integration uncertainty, regulatory clearance timelines, and broader market pullback if oil or yields spike again.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | ORCL, XOM, LMT, CVX, RTX | -0.67% | 60% |
| Claude Opus 5 | ORCL, DELL, XLE, NVDA, RTX | -2.78% | 20% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | ORCL, NVDA, SMH, QQQ, MSFT | -2.71% | 20% |
| DeepSeek V3 | ORCL, RH, CPRT, HPE, GME | -2.64% | 40% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | ORCL, RH, CSCO, CAT, META | -1.80% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-11.
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