Stock Selection: Gemini 1.5 Pro's picks for 2026-09-11
Gemini 1.5 Pro picked ORCL, XOM, LMT, CVX, RTX for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -0.67%. Picks that beat SPY: 60%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 1.5 Pro |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v7 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-11 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-14 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -0.67% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.65% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ORCL | -7.23% | 85% | -6.57% | No |
| 2 | XOM | +0.77% | 80% | +1.42% | Yes |
| 3 | LMT | +0.59% | 75% | +1.24% | Yes |
| 4 | CVX | +0.57% | 75% | +1.23% | Yes |
| 5 | RTX | -1.30% | 70% | -0.65% | No |
The model's market view
The market is facing significant headwinds with inflation fears, 10-year Treasury yields approaching 5%, and soaring oil prices above $107 driven by escalating U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflicts. While SPY may struggle due to rate hike anxieties ahead of the August CPI data, sectors tied to energy, defense, and select tech earnings winners are strongly positioned to outperform the broader index today.
Why each pick
ORCL
Oracle surged approximately 6% in premarket trading following a stellar fiscal first-quarter earnings report that highlighted a 60% surge in profits. This strong fundamental catalyst is expected to drive significant outperformance relative to SPY today, even in a cautious broader market environment. The primary risk is that a hotter-than-expected August CPI print could trigger a severe market-wide tech selloff, dragging ORCL down despite its strong individual earnings momentum.
XOM
Exxon Mobil is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the geopolitical risk premium currently driving energy markets. With Brent crude surpassing $107 per barrel due to the U.S.-Iran conflict and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, XOM will likely see strong inflows as an inflation hedge. Risks include a sudden de-escalation of Middle East tensions or government interventions to artificially cap soaring gasoline prices, which could trigger a sharp pullback in oil.
LMT
Lockheed Martin is a classic defensive play during times of military escalation. With direct military strikes and a developing U.S.-Iran conflict, investors typically rotate into defense prime contractors anticipating increased government defense appropriations and munitions demand. The main risk is a rapid diplomatic resolution or ceasefire agreement, which would abruptly remove the geopolitical premium currently bolstering the stock.
CVX
Like its peers, Chevron directly benefits from the structural supply threats to global energy infrastructure, underscored by attacks on Saudi pipelines and Houthi blockades in the Red Sea. Rising crude prices provide an immediate tailwind to CVX's margins. A potential risk is demand destruction if oil prices remain excessively elevated, pushing the global economy into a recession that ultimately harms long-term energy consumption.
RTX
RTX Corporation, a major aerospace and defense contractor, stands to gain from the heightened geopolitical instability and the prospect of a prolonged conflict requiring air defense systems and munitions. It serves as a tactical outperformer when broader equities face pressure from war fears. The primary downside risk would be supply chain constraints impacting their defense segment deliveries or an unexpected pivot toward peace negotiations in the Middle East.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | ORCL, DELL, XLE, NVDA, RTX | -2.78% | 20% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | ORCL, NVDA, SMH, QQQ, MSFT | -2.71% | 20% |
| DeepSeek V3 | ORCL, RH, CPRT, HPE, GME | -2.64% | 40% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | ORCL, RH, CSCO, CAT, META | -1.80% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | ORCL, DELL, HPE, NVDA, CPRT | -3.96% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Gemini 1.5 Pro's picks for 2026-09-11.
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