Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-11
Grok 4.5 picked DELL, HPE, ANET, ORCL, SMCI for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -4.18%. Picks that beat SPY: 0%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v7 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-11 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-14 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -4.18% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 0% |
| Benchmark return | -0.31% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DELL | -3.06% | 68% | -2.76% | No |
| 2 | HPE | -6.84% | 65% | -6.53% | No |
| 3 | ANET | -4.66% | 62% | -4.35% | No |
| 4 | ORCL | -5.11% | 60% | -4.80% | No |
| 5 | SMCI | -2.79% | 58% | -2.48% | No |
The model's market view
US equities rebounded roughly 1% on Friday after a four-session losing streak as August CPI matched expectations at 3.4% YoY (core slightly mixed), oil prices retreated 3% from multi-month highs, and Oracle’s strong AI-cloud backlog and guidance revived the AI infrastructure trade. Rate-hike odds for the September 16 FOMC rose further toward 85%, but lower energy prices provided relief. Momentum is concentrated in AI server, networking and related hardware names that reacted positively to Oracle’s results; this short-horizon setup favors continuation of today’s relative-strength leaders into the next session absent fresh negative macro or geopolitical surprises.
Why each pick
DELL
Dell surged more than 10% on Friday as AI-server demand read-through from Oracle’s AI-cloud backlog beat and guidance lift, plus a fresh RBC Outperform initiation with a $640 target. Hardware names with direct exposure to hyperscaler and enterprise AI racks have shown the strongest relative strength versus SPY today. Thesis: residual buying and weekend positioning in the AI-infra theme can carry the stock higher on the next session. Risks: profit-taking after a double-digit move, broader market fade if yields re-spike, or any softening in Oracle-related commentary.
HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise gained 9–11% on the same Oracle AI-capex and networking tailwinds, supported by its own recent record AI backlog, raised guidance and large contract wins. The stock is trading well above key moving averages with elevated volume. Thesis: continued rotation into AI server and networking suppliers should favor HPE over the broad market on the subsequent session. Risks: high single-day percentage move invites mean-reversion, sensitivity to any cooling in AI spending narratives, and general rate-sensitive pressure.
ANET
Arista Networks advanced several percent as part of the AI networking and data-center infrastructure rally tied to Oracle’s cloud results. Networking names have been consistent relative-strength leaders within the AI complex. Thesis: sustained demand visibility for high-speed switching in AI clusters supports outperformance versus SPY into the next trading day. Risks: valuation premium leaves little room for disappointment, potential sector rotation away from growth, and any broader risk-off move on weekend geopolitics or yields.
ORCL
Oracle itself delivered a clear earnings and backlog beat driven by AI cloud infrastructure, lifting the entire related complex and confirming demand. Although the stock opened higher and later consolidated, the fundamental catalyst remains fresh. Thesis: positive residual sentiment and analyst follow-up after the print can produce relative strength versus the index on the next session. Risks: post-earnings volatility and partial fade already visible, high prior-year drawdown leaving it sensitive to any guidance skepticism, and macro rate concerns.
SMCI
Super Micro Computer participated in the AI-server sympathy rally, rising several percent alongside Dell and HPE on the Oracle-driven AI infrastructure optimism. It remains a high-beta pure-play on liquid-cooled AI racks. Thesis: momentum continuation in the server hardware group favors SMCI outperforming SPY over the short window. Risks: elevated volatility and prior sharp swings, potential for faster profit-taking than larger peers, and any cooling in hyperscaler capex expectations.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | DELL, HPE, GOOGL, AAPL, SMCI | -1.78% | 40% |
| DeepSeek V3 | DELL, ACVA, HPE, MRVL, RH | -2.58% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5 | ORCL, DELL, XLE, NVDA, VLO | -2.96% | 0% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | ORCL, DELL, NVDA, AVGO, CLS | -4.10% | 0% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | BE, ORCL, HPE, DELL, AAPL | -3.97% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-11.
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