Stock Selection: Perplexity's picks for 2026-09-29
Perplexity picked KOD, BKYI, SMMT, SOXL, ARM for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -5.70%. Picks that beat SPY: 40%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Perplexity |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-29 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-30 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -5.70% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.46% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KOD | +4.89% | 78% | +4.43% | Yes |
| 2 | BKYI | -30.63% | 72% | -31.09% | No |
| 3 | SMMT | +3.88% | 68% | +3.42% | Yes |
| 4 | SOXL | -1.89% | 62% | -2.35% | No |
| 5 | ARM | -2.43% | 58% | -2.89% | No |
The model's market view
US equities face headwinds from elevated 10-year Treasury yields (~5.24%), persistent inflation fears, and US-Iran geopolitical tensions. The S&P 500 closed Monday down 0.8% at 7,683.69, with tech and AI-related stocks pressured by AI safety concerns. However, premarket momentum shows extreme moves in select names, particularly biotech and identity security stocks with catalyst-driven gaps. Semiconductor leverage via SOXL offers beta to any intraday stabilization in chip names like NVDA, which announced a historic $150B buyback.
Why each pick
KOD
Thesis: Kodiak Sciences surged +177.96% on Monday to close at $89.92, with premarket trading showing continuation to ~$92 (+185%+). This extreme momentum, likely driven by a major clinical or regulatory catalyst, typically exhibits intraday follow-through as late buyers and momentum traders pile in. The stock has already gapped massively, but 1-day horizon favors momentum continuation over mean reversion. Risks: Sharp reversal if profit-taking accelerates; high volatility could lead to whipsaw; no fundamental details confirmed in snippets. Reference price: $92.38 (intraday quote during market open on 2026-09-29). Data date: 2026-09-29. Price source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KOD/
BKYI
Thesis: BIO-key International announced a partnership with Al Majlis Group to expand identity security across the Arabian Gulf, sending shares up +83-95% in premarket/early trading from a $1.68 close. Partnership announcements in cybersecurity/identity often sustain momentum intraday as volume surges and short covering accelerates. The low float and micro-cap nature (~$2.4M market cap) amplifies moves. Risks: Extremely speculative; no contract value disclosed; potential for rapid fade if no revenue visibility; illiquidity risk. Reference price: $3.08-$3.36 (premarket/early quotes on 2026-09-29). Data date: 2026-09-29. Price source: https://finviz.com/stock?t=BKYI
SMMT
Thesis: Summit Therapeutics is up +16.60% in after-hours and +20-22% in premarket trading, with multiple sources citing strong momentum into the open. Biotech names with catalyst-driven gaps (likely trial data or partnership news) often see sustained intraday buying as institutional flow catches up. The stock closed at $15.48 Monday and is trading near $18.80 in early session. Risks: Biotech binary events can reverse quickly; if news is already priced, profit-taking could accelerate; no specific catalyst confirmed in snippets. Reference price: $18.80 (early session quote on 2026-09-29). Data date: 2026-09-29. Price source: https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/SMMT/
SOXL
Thesis: Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF offers 3x leveraged exposure to semiconductors. NVDA announced a historic $150B buyback and is bucking the AI selloff trend, up ~1.7% premarket. If chip names stabilize intraday after Monday's broad AI/tech weakness, SOXL could outperform SPY significantly on any bounce. The ETF closed at $142.29 Monday and is trading ~$142.69-$144.72 in premarket. Risks: 3x leverage magnifies downside if semis continue to weaken; sector remains under pressure from AI safety concerns and yields; decay risk over time (though 1-day horizon mitigates this). Reference price: $142.69 (premarket/early quote on 2026-09-29). Data date: 2026-09-29. Price source: https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/SOXL/
ARM
Thesis: Arm Holdings dropped -8.45% to -8.70% on Monday to close at $283.33 amid AI safety concerns, but is rebounding +1.37% to +6.05% in premarket/early trading (~$287-$300). Chip design names can see sharp intraday reversals after oversold conditions, especially if broader semis stabilize. NVDA's strength and any AI-related positive flow could lift ARM. Risks: AI safety overhang remains; stock is still down significantly on the day; high beta to semiconductor sector weakness; could underperform if tech selloff deepens. Reference price: $300.49 (intraday quote on 2026-09-29). Data date: 2026-09-29. Price source: https://www.investing.com/equities/arm
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | NVDA, KMX, AVGO, MU, NFLX | -2.53% | 0% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | NVDA, XOM, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN | +1.11% | 80% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | XLV, XLE, NVDA, XLI, XLP | -0.61% | 0% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | META, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT | +1.54% | 80% |
| Grok 4.5 | NVDA, IOVA, SMMT, CCL, XOM | +1.56% | 80% |
| DeepSeek | SMMT, FCEL, IOVA, NVTS, CCL | +1.32% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Perplexity's picks for 2026-09-29.
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