Stock Selection: ChatGPT's picks for 2026-09-29
ChatGPT picked NVDA, KMX, AVGO, MU, NFLX for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -2.53%. Picks that beat SPY: 0%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | ChatGPT |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-29 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-30 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -2.53% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 0% |
| Benchmark return | +0.46% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDA | +0.36% | 62% | -0.10% | No |
| 2 | KMX | -8.64% | 60% | -9.10% | No |
| 3 | AVGO | -0.83% | 59% | -1.30% | No |
| 4 | MU | -0.10% | 57% | -0.57% | No |
| 5 | NFLX | -1.14% | 55% | -1.61% | No |
The model's market view
Modestly favor catalyst-driven stocks over SPY through 2026-09-30T14:10:00.000Z. Early trading shows semiconductor leadership despite weak broader breadth and elevated Treasury yields. The portfolio assigns 20% to each selection; its three semiconductor positions create substantial correlated risk. Confidence scores express subjective likelihood of outperforming SPY, not calibrated probabilities. Quotes are the latest intraday observations retrieved, with their actual source timestamps disclosed; they precede the scoring-window start and are not substitutes for its official baseline. Morning gains already realized before the window are not forecast returns.
Why each pick
NVDA
The announced additional $150 billion repurchase authorization supplies a company-specific catalyst supporting continued relative strength. My thesis is that investor reassessment and AI infrastructure demand expectations sustain buying through the next morning. Authorization does not establish immediate repurchase activity. Risks include fading enthusiasm after the initial rally, higher Treasury yields and adverse AI policy headlines. The latest retrieved intraday quote was $230.27 at 9:57 AM EDT on September 29; it is a timestamped observation, not a current executable quote.
KMX
Reported quarterly EPS of $1.16 exceeded the $0.73 consensus, and the planned resumption of repurchases strengthens the turnaround signal. I expect potential post-earnings estimate revisions to support further relative gains after the opening repricing. Risks are substantial: much of the surprise is already priced in, the retrieved quote was below the early session high, and elevated financing costs threaten vehicle demand. The latest retrieved intraday quote was $60.74 at 9:43 AM EDT on September 29.
AVGO
Broadcom showed strong early relative performance, with the retrieved quote above its opening price. I infer that renewed attention to AI infrastructure spending can sustain demand for its custom silicon and networking exposure over this short window. This is a sector-flow thesis, not a claim of a newly verified Broadcom contract. Risks include reversal of the opening advance, semiconductor crowding and rate-driven valuation compression. The latest retrieved intraday quote was $359.73 at 9:59 AM EDT on September 29.
MU
Positive earnings-preview commentary and AI memory demand create a possible pre-report accumulation catalyst following Monday's decline. The scheduled Wednesday after-close earnings release falls after this forecast window ends; the thesis therefore concerns positioning before results, not an earnings reaction. Risks include investors reducing exposure ahead of the report, exceptionally demanding expectations, fresh patent litigation headlines and broader semiconductor weakness. The latest retrieved intraday quote was $1,073.79 at 10:05 AM EDT on September 29.
NFLX
Deutsche Bank's upgrade from Hold to Buy provides a near-term reassessment catalyst after substantial share-price weakness. My thesis is that bargain buying continues into the next session, providing a different catalyst from the semiconductor positions. Conviction is limited because the upgrade also reduced the price target, other analysts remain cautious, and viewer-engagement concerns could overwhelm a brief rebound. The latest retrieved intraday quote was $70.50 at 10:02 AM EDT on September 29.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | NVDA, XOM, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN | +1.11% | 80% |
| Perplexity | KOD, BKYI, SMMT, SOXL, ARM | -5.70% | 40% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | XLV, XLE, NVDA, XLI, XLP | -0.61% | 0% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | META, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT | +1.54% | 80% |
| Grok 4.5 | NVDA, IOVA, SMMT, CCL, XOM | +1.56% | 80% |
| DeepSeek | SMMT, FCEL, IOVA, NVTS, CCL | +1.32% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: ChatGPT's picks for 2026-09-29.
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