Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-29
Grok 4.5 picked NVDA, IOVA, SMMT, CCL, XOM for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +1.56%. Picks that beat SPY: 80%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-29 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-30 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +1.56% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 80% |
| Benchmark return | +0.46% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDA | +0.36% | 68% | -0.10% | No |
| 2 | IOVA | +3.41% | 62% | +2.94% | Yes |
| 3 | SMMT | +3.88% | 58% | +3.42% | Yes |
| 4 | CCL | +1.76% | 55% | +1.30% | Yes |
| 5 | XOM | +0.69% | 52% | +0.23% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equities are attempting a modest rebound after Monday's decline driven by elevated oil prices and multi-year-high Treasury yields amid ongoing US-Iran tensions. Oil has eased modestly on reports of resumed Saudi pipeline flows, yields have pulled back slightly from peaks, and tech is stabilizing with Nvidia strength on buyback news and AI event focus. Selective biotech movers and earnings releases are driving outperformance potential versus the broader SPY, though geopolitical headlines and upcoming labor data keep overall risk sentiment cautious.
Why each pick
NVDA
Nvidia is showing early strength with a rebound after Monday pressure, supported by a record $150 billion buyback authorization and continued AI leadership focus ahead of OpenAI DevDay remarks. Chip peers rose in premarket, and the stock has hit technical buy points noted in coverage. Thesis is for relative outperformance on AI momentum and risk-on rotation into large-cap tech if oil/yields stabilize. Risks include broader market fade on geopolitical headlines or higher yields limiting multiple expansion.
IOVA
Iovance is among the top gainers with a sharp advance on raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $410-420 million following strong product revenue. Biotech momentum and positive trial/guidance catalysts support further relative strength versus SPY in a selective risk environment. Thesis centers on continuation of the guidance-driven move into the session. Risks are typical biotech volatility, profit-taking after the large gap, or negative sector sentiment if macro data disappoints.
SMMT
Summit Therapeutics is advancing on reports of a substantial AstraZeneca investment commitment and partnership updates, driving premarket and early gains. Biotech catalyst flow provides a clear short-term outperformance driver independent of broad market direction. Thesis is momentum continuation from the investment news. Risks include rapid mean-reversion after the move or dilution concerns around large investments.
CCL
Carnival is surging after reporting record quarterly revenue that beat estimates, driving one of the stronger large-cap moves of the session. Consumer discretionary recovery potential and positive earnings surprise support relative strength versus SPY. Thesis relies on follow-through buying post-earnings. Risks are sensitivity to oil prices (fuel costs) and any renewed geopolitical risk-off that hits travel stocks.
XOM
ExxonMobil benefits from still-elevated crude prices despite modest oil pullbacks, with energy names showing resilience amid Middle East uncertainty. Integrated oil majors have been relative winners when yields and oil remain firm. Thesis is defensive sector relative outperformance if broader risk assets remain range-bound. Risks include sharper oil declines on any peace progress headlines or rotation out of energy into growth if yields fall further.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | NVDA, KMX, AVGO, MU, NFLX | -2.53% | 0% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | NVDA, XOM, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN | +1.11% | 80% |
| Perplexity | KOD, BKYI, SMMT, SOXL, ARM | -5.70% | 40% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | XLV, XLE, NVDA, XLI, XLP | -0.61% | 0% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | META, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT | +1.54% | 80% |
| DeepSeek | SMMT, FCEL, IOVA, NVTS, CCL | +1.32% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-29.
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