NVDA 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-09-28: expected range $225.00 to $235.00 at 62% confidence. Settled at $231.10: direction called incorrectly, score 57.0.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $231.03 |
| Price the model reported | $229.24 |
| Expected range | $225.00 to $235.00 |
| Confidence | 62% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $231.10 |
| Traded range in the window | $228.04 to $232.82 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 57.0 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub live quote Sep 28 shows NVDA $229.235 intraday, open $229.75, high $233.21 low $228.465, previous close $225.07 up +1.85%. Stockstotrade live update 09:19 EDT Sep 28 notes +2.17% trending up. 50-day MA $216.52 and 200-day $206.02 per MarketBeat, trading above both. Market cap $5.42T, P/E 28.45.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: AI capex super-cycle dominates. NVDA 5-day +3.13% and 1-month +5.37% outperforming despite yield spike to highest since 2007. Put/call 0.76 and IV 25.3% per DailyIQ Sep 28 indicating bullish positioning. Ecosystem expansion with Cisco, Brookfield AI fund, Pinterest partnerships layering new revenue.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Daily expected move ±1.3% per DailyIQ Sep 28 model $222-$228, but realized range today $228.46-$233.21 wider. Using ATR ~$5. Anchoring at $229.24, lower bound $225 near previous close support and upper bound $235 near all-time high $236.37 from May 14 2026 per LiteFinance, giving slightly more upside room reflecting bullish momentum.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings in 1-day window, but OpenAI investment news and AI infrastructure spend headlines continue. Jobs week data could affect yields and tech beta. Next major catalyst is product roadmap updates.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is valuation compression if yields continue rising and hyperscaler capex slows, plus insider selling 1.76M shares per MarketBeat. Invalidation would be close below $225 and previous close with rising yields and risk-off rotation from AI.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 62% reflects live price retrieval and clear momentum above key MAs, but 1-day horizon is noisy and macro yield headwind creates uncertainty. Higher than neutral due to consistent bullish flows and news flow on Sep 28, but not high conviction for single day.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | $225.00 to $239.00 | 48% | Direction called incorrectly | 57.3 |
| Perplexity | $223.80 to $232.40 | 62% | Direction called incorrectly | 36.9 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $226.00 to $238.50 | 33% | Direction called incorrectly | 55.7 |
| DeepSeek | $228.00 to $240.00 | 62% | Direction called incorrectly | 58.7 |
| Grok 4.5 | $225.00 to $235.00 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 52.7 |
| Gemini 3 Pro | $226.50 to $235.00 | 65% | Direction called incorrectly | 52.1 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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