IONQ 1-day forecast by GPT-6
GPT-6's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-14: expected range $34.72 to $41.00 at 60% confidence. Settled at $37.63: no directional call, score 51.5.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | GPT-6 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $37.82 |
| Price the model reported | $37.86 |
| Expected range | $34.72 to $41.00 |
| Confidence | 60% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $37.63 |
| Traded range in the window | $36.26 to $38.56 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 51.5 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Price evidence: Google Finance displayed $37.86 at 14:28:37 UTC on September 14, before the requested 14:35 UTC baseline. This is my baseline estimate, not a verified trade at the exact starting time. The reported opening price was $35.16 and the session range was $35.00-$38.04, showing a substantial opening reversal. Source: [Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/IONQ:NYSE).
(2) Market regime: The opening recovery supports a mildly bullish immediate signal, but broader technology weakness and rising oil prices create competing valuation and inflation pressures. My inference is that quantum enthusiasm can temporarily offset those pressures without establishing a dependable one-day direction. IonQ's September 8 revenue guidance of $450-460 million supports its commercialization narrative, but includes acquired SkyWater revenue and should not be interpreted as entirely organic growth. Sources: [Reuters market report](https://au.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/shares-slip-in-asia-as-oil-climbs-rate-hikes-loom-4639617), [IonQ guidance filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1824920/000119312526384388/ionq-ex99_1.htm).
(3) Range construction: My $34.72-$41.00 range is deliberately symmetric around $37.86 because the one-day directional evidence is inconclusive. The five completed sessions through September 11 had an average true range of approximately $2.28, calculated from published daily highs, lows and previous closes; September 14 had already spanned $3.04. The forecast allows more movement than that recent daily average, including overnight risk. The observed $35.00 low and $38.04 high are immediate reference points, with September 8's $40.47 close marking a higher recovery reference. Source: [Stock Analysis price history](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ionq/history/).
(4) Catalysts: The September 15 Empire State Manufacturing Survey is scheduled shortly after 12:30 UTC, inside the forecast window ending at 14:35 UTC. A growth surprise could change Treasury yields and speculative-equity sentiment. The Federal Reserve meeting begins September 15, but its September 16 decision falls outside this window. I found no confirmed IonQ earnings release within the window. Sources: [New York Fed survey schedule](https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview), [Federal Reserve calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm), [IonQ events](https://investors.ionq.com/events-and-presentations/default.aspx).
(5) Counterargument and invalidation: The strongest challenge to neutrality is that the opening reversal may begin sustained momentum following IonQ's commercialization announcements. Persistent strength beyond $38.04, followed by recovery toward $40.47, would favor a bullish interpretation. Conversely, renewed weakness below the observed $35.00 low would favor a bearish interpretation. Neither development is assumed to have occurred. Company execution and financing remain material uncertainties: IonQ reported a second-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss of $120.3 million. Source: [IonQ second-quarter results](https://www.ionq.com/news/ionq-announces-record-second-quarter-2026-revenues-growing-287-yoy).
(6) Confidence: The 60% figure is my subjective, uncalibrated probability that the price remains within the stated range during the forecast window; it is not a probability of an increase. Confidence is limited by the missing exact-baseline trade, unusually large intraday movement, and competing company and macroeconomic signals. Longer-horizon signals remain neutral because these observations do not establish a sufficiently reliable directional advantage.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | $32.40 to $38.30 | 45% | Direction called correctly | 13.5 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $37.50 to $44.00 | 52% | Direction called incorrectly | 9.3 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $36.50 to $39.50 | 70% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.3 |
| Grok 4.5 | $35.50 to $39.00 | 38% | Direction called correctly | 71.5 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $34.00 to $37.50 | 62% | Direction called incorrectly | 6.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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