IONQ 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-14: expected range $37.50 to $44.00 at 52% confidence. Settled at $37.63: direction called incorrectly, score 9.3.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $37.82 |
| Price the model reported | $41.06 |
| Expected range | $37.50 to $44.00 |
| Confidence | 52% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $37.63 |
| Traded range in the window | $36.26 to $38.56 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 9.3 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Barchart snapshot shows IONQ : 41.06 (-8.47%) alongside QBTS 18.68 (-8.39%) and RGTI 16.37 (-8.60%) on Sep 14, indicating broad quantum selloff, QTUM -2.35%. CoinGecko tokenized IONQON reports CA$49.17 Sep 14 -4.0%, CA$51.01 Sep 13 +0.4%, and $35.79 -2.70% today per Metamask table. Stockopedia delayed quote says $36.75 as of 21:23 UTC with -21.89% 365 days underperforming SPY by -32.83%. FinancialContent lists Price $38.71. Motley Fool notes IONQ raised full-year revenue outlook by ~60% to $450-460M and signed $8.18M quantum-safe networking deal with Congruity360, with price $40.14 +1.57% on that news day.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Bearish momentum for quantum basket. Beta 3.35 for IONQ.WS warrants per Finnhub, indicating high sensitivity to rates. With Brent $106-109 and 10Y ~4.86% and Fed hike odds 58-86% into Sep 15-16, high-beta unprofitable tech under pressure. Quantum peers down 8-9% today, showing sector-wide de-risking after Q2 2026 earnings divergence noted by MarketBeat Aug 19. Tokenized price down 10.9% past week from $40.17 to $35.79.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $41.06 Barchart live print. Using tokenized range $35.79-$40.17 past week and CAD range CA$49-53. High beta suggests daily move 6-8%. Set lower bound $37.50 near Stockopedia $36.75 and FinancialContent $38.71 support, upper bound $44.00 near recent $40-41 bounce plus 7% upside if quantum short covering. More room below than above reflects -8.47% intraday momentum and sector downtrend.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: 1-day window Sep 14 14:35 UTC to Sep 15 covers pre-FOMC positioning. No IONQ earnings inside window; Q2 earnings already reported. Catalysts are macro: oil spike, yield move, and quantum sector sympathy with QBTS and RGTI. Potential news on quantum-safe networking deals or revenue guidance follow-through could support, but no calendar event scheduled.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case: revenue outlook raised 60% to $450-460M per Motley Fool provides fundamental floor; oversold bounce after -8.5% drop could produce intraday reversal toward $44 if yields ease. Invalidation: daily close above $44.50 with volume and QTUM strength would negate bearish 1d view; close below $37.50 would accelerate toward $35.79 tokenized low.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 52% reflects live price from Barchart dated Sep 14 but dispersion across sources $35.79 to $41.06 indicates fragmented tokenized vs primary listing and delayed quotes. High beta and Fed week add uncertainty. Direction over 24h is noisy for high-volatility quantum name. Labeling live because Barchart print is after baseline and confirms -8.47% move, but low confidence due to spread in quotes.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | $32.40 to $38.30 | 45% | Direction called correctly | 13.5 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $36.50 to $39.50 | 70% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.3 |
| Grok 4.5 | $35.50 to $39.00 | 38% | Direction called correctly | 71.5 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $34.00 to $37.50 | 62% | Direction called incorrectly | 6.4 |
| GPT-6 | $34.72 to $41.00 | 60% | No directional call | 51.5 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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