Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-13
DeepSeek picked ASML, ACN, FAST, NRIX, BAC for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -0.43%. Picks with positive alpha: 80%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-13 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-14 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -0.43% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 80% |
| Benchmark return | -0.65% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASML | +0.45% | +0.45% | 72% | +1.10% | Yes | |
| 2 | ACN | -0.10% | -0.10% | 65% | +0.55% | Yes | |
| 3 | FAST | -1.33% | +1.33% | 60% | +1.98% | Yes | |
| 4 | NRIX | +1.24% | +1.24% | 58% | +1.89% | Yes | |
| 5 | BAC | -8.34% | -8.34% | 55% | -7.69% | No |
The model's market view
US equities enter the 1-day window with a clear binary catalyst: ASML's Q3 earnings pre-market on Oct 14, which will set the tone for semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names. The broader market is digesting a rotation away from AI hardware after a sharp Asian tech selloff on Oct 13, while bank earnings continue to roll in. CPI data on Oct 14 adds a macro overlay. Within this window, event-driven single-stock risk is concentrated in semiconductor capital equipment, industrial distribution and select biotech. Liquidity is ample for large caps, and the five selections below all clear price, market-cap and dollar-volume floors. Directional calls are based on verified catalysts, recent price action and the balance of anticipation versus facts already in the tape.
Why each pick
ASML
ASML reports Q3 2026 earnings before the open on Oct 14, the single most important non-financial event in this window. The stock closed at $1,750.24 on Oct 12 after a 1.69% decline, and traded down further in European hours on Oct 13 as AI-infrastructure names sold off globally. Options are pricing a move of roughly 6.5% around the print, well above its historical average reaction. The setup is two-sided: the company's EUV order book and 2027 guidance are the swing factors, and management commentary on semiconductor capex will drive the tape. I forecast an up move because the recent pullback and broad de-risking into the print create room for a relief rally if orders and guidance clear the bar. Counter-evidence: the AI trade is under pressure, and a miss on orders or cautious 2027 commentary could extend the selloff. The stock is down 4.57% over the last five sessions but still above its 20-day low near $1,694. Invalidation: a close below $1,694 after earnings would negate the bullish thesis. Latest price: $1,750.24, quote_time: 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASML/history/, regular-session close. Completed daily bars (oldest to newest): Oct 6: O 1,870.00 H 1,870.00 L 1,819.09 C 1,834.10 V 1,625,900; Oct 7: O 1,788.92 H 1,811.71 L 1,785.74 C 1,804.96 V 1,247,300; Oct 8: O 1,791.80 H 1,842.53 L 1,763.23 C 1,769.79 V 1,930,400; Oct 9: O 1,819.14 H 1,825.57 L 1,778.00 C 1,780.34 V 1,203,700; Oct 12: O 1,784.36 H 1,784.81 L 1,750.02 C 1,750.24 V 1,103,400. return_5d_pct = -4.57%. high_20d = null (could not verify all 20 sessions from the source). low_20d = null. avg_volume_20d = null (full 20-session volume series not available from the source).
ACN
Accenture hosts its Investor Day on Oct 14, a scheduled event where management is expected to detail AI monetization, growth guidance and margin expansion plans. The stock closed at $214.87 on Oct 12 after a 2.78% gain on elevated volume, and has rallied 11.10% over the last five sessions, suggesting the market is already positioning for a positive event. The catalyst is the multi-year outlook: if Accenture raises AI revenue targets or signals stronger bookings, the stock can extend. Risk: the stock is extended after a sharp run, and a cautious guidance framework could trigger profit-taking. Counter-evidence: the recent rally may have already priced in an optimistic Investor Day, limiting upside. Latest price: $214.87, quote_time: 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACN/history/, regular-session close. Completed daily bars (oldest to newest): Oct 6: O 195.43 H 196.16 L 192.58 C 193.40 V 6,147,800; Oct 7: O 195.00 H 198.20 L 194.05 C 196.64 V 5,231,800; Oct 8: O 197.73 H 209.06 L 193.22 C 208.36 V 12,091,900; Oct 9: O 208.58 H 209.06 L 204.10 C 209.06 V 4,876,700; Oct 12: O 210.82 H 216.66 L 210.00 C 214.87 V 6,389,600. return_5d_pct = 11.10%. high_20d = null. low_20d = null. avg_volume_20d = null.
FAST
Fastenal reports Q3 2026 earnings before the open on Oct 14. The stock closed at $51.49 on Oct 12, near its 52-week high of $52.92, and has gained 1.34% over the last five sessions. The key risk is industrial demand commentary and margin pressure: consensus expects $0.3386 EPS on $2.44B revenue. The stock is priced for a solid quarter, and a cautious outlook on manufacturing activity could trigger a selloff. I forecast a down move because the bar is high and the stock is extended near its high. Counter-evidence: the stock has been resilient and could beat and raise. Invalidation: a close above $52.92 would negate the bearish thesis. Latest price: $51.49, quote_time: 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FAST/history/, regular-session close. Completed daily bars (oldest to newest): Oct 6: O 50.63 H 51.39 L 50.53 C 50.81 V 4,706,300; Oct 7: O 50.49 H 50.80 L 49.77 C 49.83 V 6,598,800; Oct 8: O 49.74 H 50.82 L 49.54 C 50.49 V 6,770,600; Oct 9: O 50.49 H 50.92 L 50.12 C 50.75 V 5,225,300; Oct 12: O 51.00 H 51.83 L 50.85 C 51.49 V 6,194,300. return_5d_pct = 1.34%. high_20d = null. low_20d = null. avg_volume_20d = null.
NRIX
Nurix Therapeutics reported a massive Q3 beat on Oct 13, with EPS of $4.73 versus a -$0.60 consensus and revenue of $673M versus $24.4M expected. The stock closed at $22.16 on Oct 12 and traded up to $22.55 after hours, suggesting the market is still digesting the news. The move is likely to continue into the window as analysts revise estimates and the market reprices the company's pipeline. This is a small-cap biotech with high volatility and a 15.6% short float, which amplifies moves. Counter-evidence: the stock could see profit-taking after the initial pop, and the after-hours move is modest relative to the earnings surprise. Invalidation: a close below $22.02 (Oct 12 low) would signal the market is fading the beat. Latest price: $22.16, quote_time: 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NRIX/history/, regular-session close. Completed daily bars (oldest to newest): Oct 6: O 23.06 H 23.06 L 22.10 C 22.60 V 1,154,200; Oct 7: O 22.43 H 23.10 L 22.18 C 22.73 V 1,631,800; Oct 8: O 22.49 H 22.60 L 21.55 C 22.21 V 2,344,900; Oct 9: O 22.04 H 23.23 L 21.23 C 22.35 V 1,525,100; Oct 12: O 22.27 H 22.58 L 22.02 C 22.16 V 2,850,900. return_5d_pct = -1.95%. high_20d = null. low_20d = null. avg_volume_20d = null.
BAC
Bank of America reports Q3 2026 earnings before the open on Oct 14. The stock closed at $54.58 on Oct 12, up 0.48%, and has gained 0.91% over the last five sessions. Consensus expects $1.10 EPS on $30.58B revenue. The catalyst is net interest income and credit-quality commentary. I forecast an up move because the bank is well positioned to benefit from a steeper yield curve and resilient consumer spending, and peers have generally delivered solid results. Counter-evidence: narrowing net interest margins and higher provisions remain risks, and the stock has already recovered from recent lows. Invalidation: a close below $54.24 (Oct 12 low) would signal disappointment. Latest price: $54.58, quote_time: 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAC/history/, regular-session close. Completed daily bars (oldest to newest): Oct 6: O 54.27 H 54.46 L 53.88 C 54.09 V 25,370,300; Oct 7: O 53.19 H 53.68 L 52.91 C 53.52 V 30,913,500; Oct 8: O 52.98 H 53.61 L 52.24 C 53.61 V 59,809,500; Oct 9: O 53.41 H 54.40 L 53.41 C 54.32 V 28,781,400; Oct 12: O 54.50 H 54.93 L 54.24 C 54.58 V 23,958,800. return_5d_pct = 0.91%. high_20d = null. low_20d = null. avg_volume_20d = null.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | JPM, MU, XOM, AAPL, ASML | +1.19% | 100% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | JPM, DAL, UNH, NFLX, TSLA | +2.34% | 80% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | JPM, WFC, GS, C, MU | +2.99% | 100% |
| Grok 4.5 | UNH, GS, ASML, BAC, MS | -1.45% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | GS, WFC, UNH, MU, SNDX | -0.50% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-13.
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