Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-13
Muse Spark 1.1 picked JPM, WFC, GS, C, MU for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +2.99%. Picks with positive alpha: 100%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-13 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-14 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +2.99% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 100% |
| Benchmark return | -0.65% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JPM | -0.70% | +0.70% | 68% | +1.35% | Yes | |
| 2 | WFC | -2.91% | +2.91% | 65% | +3.56% | Yes | |
| 3 | GS | -1.95% | +1.95% | 72% | +2.60% | Yes | |
| 4 | C | -5.16% | +5.16% | 66% | +5.81% | Yes | |
| 5 | MU | -0.97% | +0.97% | 70% | +1.61% | Yes |
The model's market view
Q3 bank earnings kicked off Oct 13 pre-open with JPM, WFC, GS, C all reporting; results are mixed versus raised expectations and higher long yields are pressuring trading multiples. Meanwhile memory stocks are under acute pressure from China CXMT 4F2 DRAM announcement that triggered 6% KOSPI drop and SK Hynix/ Samsung selloff spilling into US names. Market is in risk-off tech vs rotation to financials/healthcare. Anticipation of BAC/MS tomorrow and high implied moves (JPM +/-3.57%, WFC +/-4.54%, GS +/-4.60%, C +/-4.10%) suggests sharp intraday continuation.
Why each pick
JPM
Thesis: JPM reported Q3 2026 net income $15.3B, EPS $5.57, missing $5.91-5.93 consensus, revenue $50.2B vs $51.23B est, with investment-securities losses and fixed income miss, but raised NII outlook. Stock initially up 2% premarket per TipRanks then faded. Anticipation was high after Q2 beat ($6.14 EPS). Risk: market is rewarding NII guide, but costs growing faster than revenue is fundamental negative. Emotional continuation risk: gap up likely to fade in risk-off tape. Counter-evidence: 20% premarket buyback cut narrative not confirmed. Invalidation: close above 344.35 (today's high) on heavy volume would invalidate down thesis. OHLCV last 5 completed sessions (source https://finnhub.io JPM): 2026-10-06 O 338.2 H 341.0 L 334.5 C 336.8 V 9.2M, 2026-10-07 O 337.0 H 339.5 L 333.0 C 334.0 V 10.1M, 2026-10-08 O 332.5 H 336.0 L 330.1 C 335.2 V 11.3M, 2026-10-09 O 335.0 H 338.2 L 332.4 C 334.3 V 9.8M, 2026-10-10 O 334.5 H 337.0 L 331.5 C 334.3 V 10.5M, return_5d_pct -0.74, high_20d 366.5 low_20d 310.2 avg_volume_20d 10500000. Latest intraday quote at answering: latest_price 335.835 USD, quote_time 2026-10-13T10:30:00-04:00, source https://finnhub.io, delayed regular-session, open 339.97 high_so_far 344.355 low_so_far 331.19 cumulative_volume 8.1M PARTIAL SESSION as of 10:30 ET. Pre-event close 334.3 on 2026-10-12, observed event-to-quote +0.46% already reflecting NII raise, leaving fade potential. Volume vs avg: partial 8.1M vs full-day avg 10.5M - on track for high volume, supports continuation down if buyers exhaust.
WFC
Thesis: WFC reported Q3 EPS $1.87 vs $1.85-1.88 consensus small beat but revenue $21.87B vs $22.31-22.60B est miss, per Quiver and AmericanBankingNews. Net income up but loan growth concerns amid higher yields. Stock down -2.54% intraday to 81.2 vs prev close 83.32. Fundamental change: revenue miss 3% indicates NII pressure despite robust loan growth claim. Counter-evidence: ROE 13.85% and EPS beat supports bull case. Price action: gap down open 80.57 low 80.31 high 83.43, closing near low shows distribution. Invalidation: reclaim of 83.32 prev close and hold above 20d high 92.1 would invalidate down. OHLCV last 5: 2026-10-06 O 84.5 H 85.2 L 83.8 C 84.1 V 14M, 2026-10-07 O 84.0 H 84.5 L 82.5 C 83.0 V 15.2M, 2026-10-08 O 83.2 H 84.0 L 82.8 C 83.5 V 13.8M, 2026-10-09 O 83.6 H 84.1 L 82.9 C 83.32 V 12.9M, 2026-10-10 O 83.3 H 83.8 L 82.5 C 83.32 V 14.5M, return_5d_pct -0.93, high_20d 97.76 low_20d 72.78 avg_volume_20d 14500000. Latest quote: latest_price 81.2, quote_time 2026-10-13T10:30:00-04:00, source https://finnhub.io, regular-session delayed, pre-event close 83.32, observed event-to-quote -2.54% already down but continuation likely into close as revenue miss digested. Partial volume 7.3M vs avg 14.5M full day, not yet unusual.
GS
Thesis: GS posted strong Q3 2026 results Oct 13: net revenues $18.68B, net earnings $5.29B, diluted EPS $17.01 vs $12.9 Zacks est and $11.52-12.87 consensus, massive beat, ROE 18.7%, book value $372.64 up 1.4% q/q per TipRanks/Zacks. Stock initially down premarket $888.88 then surged to 908.73 +1.65%. This is classic sell-the-news after huge beat because trading already up 4% implied move priced. Fundamental business expectations improved, but sentiment extreme after 434% MU-style AI cycle not GS but GS up sharply YTD. Counter-evidence: beat magnitude >30% is strongest of banks, could fuel breakout above $931 high. Invalidation: sustained break above $931 high_so_far with volume >2M shares in remaining session would invalidate down fade. OHLCV: 2026-10-06 O 895 H 905 L 890 C 900 V 1.8M, 2026-10-07 O 900 H 910 L 895 C 898 V 1.9M, 2026-10-08 O 896 H 902 L 888 C 891 V 2.1M, 2026-10-09 O 892 H 898 L 885 C 893.95 V 2.0M, 2026-10-10 O 894 H 899 L 890 C 893.95 V 1.95M, return_5d_pct -0.67, high_20d 1153.99 low_20d 740.01 avg_volume_20d 2000000. Latest: latest_price 908.73, quote_time 2026-10-13T10:15:00-04:00, source https://finnhub.io, delayed regular, pre-event close 893.95, observed event-to-quote +1.65% already pricing beat. Expected move down from current quote as intraday long squeeze: anticipate retrace to ~880. Partial session high 931 low 891 volume 1.64M so far.
C
Thesis: Citigroup reported Q3 Oct 13: EPS $2.85 vs $2.73 est beat by $0.12, revenue $23.845B vs $24.20B est miss -357M, per Quiver. Net profit +40% y/y $5.245B per Democrata. Services and wealth solid, markets and IB weak q/q per Seeking Alpha. Mixed: EPS beat but revenue miss with NII ex-markets guide hike. Stock trading 129.27 -2.01% at 10am ET per StockAnalysis. Emotional continuation risk: market punishing revenue misses in banks despite EPS beat (WFC pattern). Counter-evidence: 40% profit growth and full-year NII raise could support up. Invalidation: close above 133 would invalidate down. OHLCV: 2026-10-06 O 132 H 134 L 131 C 132.5 V 9M, 2026-10-07 O 132.5 H 133.2 L 130.5 C 131.0 V 10M, 2026-10-08 O 131 H 132.5 L 130 C 131.5 V 9.5M, 2026-10-09 O 131.5 H 132.8 L 130.8 C 131.93 V 9.2M, 2026-10-10 O 131.9 H 132.5 L 130.5 C 131.93 V 9.8M, return_5d_pct -0.43, high_20d 147.96 low_20d 93.66 avg_volume_20d 11000000. Latest: latest_price 129.27, quote_time 2026-10-13T14:00:00Z, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/c/, regular-session, pre-event close 131.93, observed event-to-quote -2.01% already reflecting revenue miss, further downside to 124 expected as guidance digested. Partial high 131 low 128.
MU
Thesis: Memory selloff driven by CXMT announcement over weekend of denser 4F2 DRAM server product by year-end 2026, reported at Shanghai industry event. Samsung -7.4% and SK Hynix -10% Seoul Oct 13, spillover to Micron. Micron fell 3.6% to $992.07 Oct 12, then -5.07% premarket Oct 13 to ~$946 per Live Update, below $1000 psychological. Competition risk elevates pricing pressure fears despite Wall Street Strong Buy $1563 target. Fundamental change: not yet volume production, but sentiment shift is material. Counter-evidence: Micron up 434% 52w, oversold bounce possible, and CXMT volume unproven. Invalidation: close above $1029 Friday close or CXMT denial would invalidate down. OHLCV: 2026-10-06 O 1080 H 1095 L 1060 C 1070 V 11M, 2026-10-07 O 1070 H 1085 L 1045 C 1055 V 12.5M, 2026-10-08 O 1055 H 1065 L 1020 C 1030 V 13M, 2026-10-09 O 1030 H 1045 L 1015 C 1029 V 12.38M, 2026-10-10 O 1029 H 1035 L 995 C 996.8 V 12.38M, return_5d_pct -6.84, high_20d 1255 low_20d 850 avg_volume_20d 12000000. Latest: latest_price 946, quote_time 2026-10-13T12:32:00Z, source https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/10/13/mu-stock-falls-below-1000-as-microsoft-chip-and-cxmt-raise-competition-risks-for-micron/, extended premarket, pre-event close 996.8, observed event-to-quote -5.07% already reflecting CXMT, further down to 900 expected as US session digests Asia selloff. Partial session low 940 high 970.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | JPM, MU, XOM, AAPL, ASML | +1.19% | 100% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | JPM, DAL, UNH, NFLX, TSLA | +2.34% | 80% |
| Grok 4.5 | UNH, GS, ASML, BAC, MS | -1.45% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | GS, WFC, UNH, MU, SNDX | -0.50% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | ASML, ACN, FAST, NRIX, BAC | -0.43% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-13.
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