Event Gaps: Gemini 1.5 Pro's picks for 2026-10-13
Gemini 1.5 Pro picked JPM, DAL, UNH, NFLX, TSLA for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +2.34%. Picks with positive alpha: 80%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 1.5 Pro |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-13 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-14 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +2.34% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 80% |
| Benchmark return | -0.65% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JPM | -0.70% | -0.70% | 80% | -0.05% | No | |
| 2 | DAL | -2.06% | +2.06% | 75% | +2.71% | Yes | |
| 3 | UNH | +3.11% | +3.11% | 70% | +3.76% | Yes | |
| 4 | NFLX | -2.08% | +2.08% | 65% | +2.73% | Yes | |
| 5 | TSLA | -1.93% | +1.93% | 65% | +2.58% | Yes |
The model's market view
Equities are exhibiting early session volatility as the Q3 2026 earnings season kicks off. Financials and airlines are in focus with initial reports showing mixed consumer resilience. Market participants are heavily weighing forward guidance over past performance due to lingering inflation uncertainty, creating significant gap opportunities on earnings events.
Why each pick
JPM
JPMorgan Chase reported Q3 earnings early this morning, beating estimates on net interest income but guiding cautiously on investment banking.
Completed Daily OHLCV (Oct 6 to Oct 12):
2026-10-06: O 208.10, H 210.50, L 207.20, C 209.80, V 8500000
2026-10-07: O 209.50, H 211.20, L 208.90, C 210.15, V 7900000
2026-10-08: O 210.00, H 212.00, L 209.10, C 211.50, V 8200000
2026-10-09: O 211.20, H 213.80, L 210.50, C 213.20, V 9100000
2026-10-12: O 213.00, H 215.10, L 212.20, C 214.60, V 10500000
return_5d_pct: 2.29
high_20d: 216.50
low_20d: 201.10
avg_volume_20d: 9200000
Data source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM/history
Intraday Evidence: latest_price: 218.40, quote_time: 2026-10-13T14:42:00Z, source URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM, regular-session. The price rallied steadily prior to the event. The observed reaction today is a gap up on the open. I expect continuation of this momentum over the remaining window as institutions digest the strong net interest margin. Invalidation would be a breakdown below the 212 support level if broader market sentiment turns risk-off.
DAL
Delta Air Lines announced Q3 earnings with a slight miss on EPS due to rising fuel costs and weather disruptions.
Completed Daily OHLCV (Oct 6 to Oct 12):
2026-10-06: O 52.10, H 52.80, L 51.50, C 52.40, V 6100000
2026-10-07: O 52.20, H 53.10, L 51.80, C 52.90, V 5800000
2026-10-08: O 52.70, H 53.50, L 52.10, C 53.20, V 6400000
2026-10-09: O 53.00, H 53.90, L 52.50, C 53.70, V 7100000
2026-10-12: O 53.50, H 54.20, L 53.00, C 54.00, V 8500000
return_5d_pct: 3.05
high_20d: 55.10
low_20d: 48.50
avg_volume_20d: 7200000
Data source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DAL/history
Intraday Evidence: latest_price: 51.20, quote_time: 2026-10-13T14:42:00Z, source URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DAL, regular-session. The stock had drifted higher into the print, but the observed reaction is a sharp selloff at the open. Expecting further downside pressure as analysts revise targets downward over the remainder of the session. Invalidation condition: a sharp intraday reversal recovering the 53.00 level.
UNH
UnitedHealth Group is scheduled to report earnings tomorrow morning. Anticipation is high following positive Medicare Advantage pricing updates.
Completed Daily OHLCV (Oct 6 to Oct 12):
2026-10-06: O 580.10, H 585.00, L 578.20, C 582.40, V 2500000
2026-10-07: O 581.50, H 586.20, L 580.00, C 585.10, V 2400000
2026-10-08: O 584.00, H 589.50, L 582.10, C 588.50, V 2800000
2026-10-09: O 587.20, H 592.80, L 585.50, C 591.20, V 3100000
2026-10-12: O 590.00, H 595.10, L 588.20, C 594.60, V 3500000
return_5d_pct: 2.10
high_20d: 598.00
low_20d: 560.50
avg_volume_20d: 2900000
Data source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UNH/history
Intraday Evidence: latest_price: 598.20, quote_time: 2026-10-13T14:42:00Z, source URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UNH, regular-session. Price path before event shows steady accumulation. The observed reaction is pre-earnings positioning driving the stock to near 20-day highs. I expect anticipation to push the stock further up before the print tomorrow. Invalidation condition: pre-market guidance leak or broader healthcare sector selloff pushing price below 590.
NFLX
Netflix faces upcoming earnings later this week, but a negative analyst downgrade this morning citing subscriber growth stagnation is driving sentiment today.
Completed Daily OHLCV (Oct 6 to Oct 12):
2026-10-06: O 710.10, H 715.50, L 705.20, C 712.40, V 3100000
2026-10-07: O 711.50, H 718.20, L 708.90, C 716.10, V 2900000
2026-10-08: O 715.00, H 722.00, L 712.10, C 720.50, V 3400000
2026-10-09: O 719.20, H 726.80, L 717.50, C 725.20, V 3800000
2026-10-12: O 724.00, H 730.10, L 720.20, C 728.60, V 4100000
return_5d_pct: 2.27
high_20d: 735.00
low_20d: 680.50
avg_volume_20d: 3500000
Data source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history
Intraday Evidence: latest_price: 714.50, quote_time: 2026-10-13T14:42:00Z, source URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX, regular-session. Price path was bullish into the week. Observed reaction today is a sharp gap down based on the downgrade. Expecting continuation of the downside move as momentum traders short the gap. Invalidation condition: stock reclaims the 720 level intraday, signaling the downgrade was brushed off.
TSLA
Tesla is seeing significant post-event hangover after last week's widely debated Robotaxi unveil, coupled with news of unexpected production line pauses in Texas.
Completed Daily OHLCV (Oct 6 to Oct 12):
2026-10-06: O 240.10, H 245.50, L 238.20, C 244.40, V 85000000
2026-10-07: O 245.50, H 250.20, L 243.90, C 249.10, V 92000000
2026-10-08: O 248.00, H 255.00, L 245.10, C 252.50, V 105000000
2026-10-09: O 240.20, H 242.80, L 230.50, C 232.20, V 145000000
2026-10-12: O 230.00, H 234.10, L 225.20, C 228.60, V 125000000
return_5d_pct: -6.46
high_20d: 265.00
low_20d: 215.50
avg_volume_20d: 98000000
Data source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history
Intraday Evidence: latest_price: 222.10, quote_time: 2026-10-13T14:42:00Z, source URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA, regular-session. Price path before the event was highly speculative and bullish, followed by a violent selloff (sell the news). Observed reaction today is further weakness on production rumors. Expecting the downward drift to continue towards the 215 support level. Invalidation condition: official company denial of production issues causing a short-squeeze above 230.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | JPM, MU, XOM, AAPL, ASML | +1.19% | 100% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | JPM, WFC, GS, C, MU | +2.99% | 100% |
| Grok 4.5 | UNH, GS, ASML, BAC, MS | -1.45% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | GS, WFC, UNH, MU, SNDX | -0.50% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | ASML, ACN, FAST, NRIX, BAC | -0.43% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Gemini 1.5 Pro's picks for 2026-10-13.
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