Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-19
DeepSeek picked STLD, GE, RTX, HAL, GM for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -1.62%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-19 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-20 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -1.62% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.19% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STLD | -0.48% | -0.48% | 65% | -0.67% | No | |
| 2 | GE | -3.77% | -3.77% | 55% | -3.96% | No | |
| 3 | RTX | +1.53% | +1.53% | 60% | +1.35% | Yes | |
| 4 | HAL | +1.55% | +1.55% | 55% | +1.36% | Yes | |
| 5 | GM | -6.00% | -6.00% | 60% | -6.19% | No |
The model's market view
US equities are mixed at the start of a heavy earnings week. Steel and defense names are in focus after Cleveland-Cliffs' strong beat, while aerospace and auto majors report before Tuesday's open. Event-driven volatility is elevated and I expect the five selected earnings-driven common stocks to move sharply in either direction over the one-session window.
Why each pick
STLD
STLD reports Q3 2026 after the close on 2026-10-19. Consensus EPS is $5.42 on revenue of $6.11B; the company pre-announced Q3 EPS of $5.34-$5.38, so the bar is modest. Peer CLF surged roughly 20% on 2026-10-19 after a strong beat and raised outlook, creating a positive read-across for steel pricing. The stock is up 64.7% in 52 weeks, so 'sell the news' risk is real, but sector momentum and the guidance raise support a gap-up. Price action: the last five completed sessions (Oct 12-16) are Oct 12 O238.90 H241.63 L237.95 C239.14 V705,200; Oct 13 O239.50 H241.92 L237.28 C240.63 V688,400; Oct 14 O238.95 H243.30 L238.27 C242.92 V766,200; Oct 15 O242.65 H243.58 L235.25 C240.76 V921,900; Oct 16 O243.64 H248.92 L239.76 C240.54 V905,800. Return_5d_pct = 0.91% (240.54 vs 238.38 on Oct 9). The 20-day high is 248.92 and the 20-day low is 219.10; avg_volume_20d is 826,119 shares. Oct 16 tested 248.92 but closed mid-range, showing supply above 248; volume was above average. Latest intraday quote: 243.66 at 2026-10-19T14:52:00Z (Yahoo Finance, regular session). The stock has already moved from an Oct 19 open of 245.73 to a low of 240.44 before recovering; the elapsed-window move is negative. The remaining forecast is for a positive earnings reaction. Invalidation: a close below 240.00 after earnings, or guidance that disappoints, would negate the thesis. Confidence is moderate because the event is binary and the stock has already run far.
GE
GE Aerospace reports Q3 2026 before the open on 2026-10-20. Consensus EPS is $2.01, representing 21% year-over-year growth. The stock has fallen about 20% from its August peak and is trading near a death cross, so expectations are subdued and a beat could trigger a relief rally. However, the trailing PE is 37 and industrial demand concerns remain, so the reaction could be muted or negative if guidance disappoints. Price action: the last five completed sessions (Oct 12-16) are Oct 12 O307.78 H311.73 L307.65 C308.64 V2,432,300; Oct 13 O308.00 H309.98 L305.20 C307.63 V4,516,600; Oct 14 O307.73 H311.27 L305.09 C307.02 V3,302,100; Oct 15 O308.80 H312.18 L304.09 C312.00 V3,809,200; Oct 16 O314.79 H321.17 L313.20 C313.83 V4,204,700. Return_5d_pct = 1.83% (313.83 vs 308.20 on Oct 9). The 20-day high is 329.17 and the 20-day low is 296.61; avg_volume_20d is 3,915,116 shares. The stock recovered from a 304.09 low on Oct 15 to close near the upper end of the range on Oct 16, but volume was only modestly above average. Latest intraday quote: 312.06 at 2026-10-19T15:01:00Z (Yahoo Finance, regular session). The elapsed-window move is slightly negative. Invalidation: a close below 305.00 after earnings would invalidate the upside thesis. Confidence is lower because the stock is in a downtrend and the event risk is two-sided.
RTX
RTX reports Q3 2026 before the open on 2026-10-20. Consensus EPS is $1.78 on revenue of about $24.1B. The company has beaten estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, and defense demand remains firm. The stock closed at 193.92 on Oct 16, near the top of its 20-day range, and a positive surprise could push it to new highs. Risks include supply-chain pressure and the possibility that good news is already priced in after a 18% 52-week gain. Price action: the last five completed sessions (Oct 12-16) are Oct 12 O186.71 H187.41 L185.95 C186.66 V3,767,500; Oct 13 O185.30 H185.80 L181.15 C183.02 V4,726,500; Oct 14 O184.12 H186.79 L183.67 C186.47 V4,045,900; Oct 15 O189.96 H189.96 L185.31 C186.95 V4,674,600; Oct 16 O188.76 H194.32 L188.00 C193.92 V7,721,000. Return_5d_pct = 4.28% (193.92 vs 185.97 on Oct 9). The 20-day high is 195.19 and the 20-day low is 179.02; avg_volume_20d is 4,043,173 shares. Oct 16 volume was nearly double the 20-day average, confirming strong demand at the breakout attempt. Latest intraday quote: 192.16 at 2026-10-19T14:54:00Z (Yahoo Finance, regular session). The elapsed-window move is slightly negative, but the pre-event setup remains constructive. Invalidation: a close below 186.00 after earnings would signal that the breakout failed. Confidence is moderate because RTX has a consistent beat record but a low beta.
HAL
Halliburton reports Q3 2026 before the open on 2026-10-20. Consensus EPS is $0.58 on revenue of about $5.58B, roughly flat year over year. The stock is up 49.6% in 52 weeks and has been consolidating near 33.50. A modest beat or strong commentary on international and offshore activity could lift the shares. Oil-price volatility and geopolitical risk are the main counterweights. Price action: the last five completed sessions (Oct 12-16) are Oct 12 O32.92 H33.17 L32.46 C32.60 V4,526,700; Oct 13 O32.80 H33.07 L32.55 C32.79 V5,347,500; Oct 14 O32.85 H33.19 L32.64 C32.83 V8,939,900; Oct 15 O32.76 H32.99 L32.01 C32.89 V9,083,300; Oct 16 O33.32 H33.70 L33.23 C33.50 V7,705,000. Return_5d_pct = 2.92% (33.50 vs 32.55 on Oct 9). The 20-day high is 33.75 and the 20-day low is 31.42; avg_volume_20d is 8,390,051 shares. Oct 16 closed near the day's high on volume slightly below the 20-day average, showing steady accumulation. Latest intraday quote: 32.77 at 2026-10-19T15:00:00Z (Yahoo Finance, regular session). The elapsed-window move is negative, creating a lower entry for the event. Invalidation: a close below 32.00 after earnings would break the recent range and negate the thesis. Confidence is moderate because the event is binary and oil-service sentiment can shift quickly.
GM
General Motors reports Q3 2026 before the open on 2026-10-20. Consensus EPS is $3.52 on revenue of about $48.2B, representing 25.7% year-over-year earnings growth. The stock is up 46.4% in 52 weeks and trades at a forward PE of just 5.9, so a beat could extend the rally. Risks include EV losses, tariff uncertainty and a cyclical slowdown in auto demand. Price action: the last five completed sessions (Oct 12-16) are Oct 12 O82.65 H82.96 L82.21 C82.37 V5,580,400; Oct 13 O82.88 H84.59 L82.49 C84.00 V6,224,500; Oct 14 O83.18 H83.49 L82.02 C83.05 V6,101,500; Oct 15 O83.70 H84.16 L82.76 C83.66 V5,712,700; Oct 16 O84.76 H85.79 L83.44 C83.96 V7,486,400. Return_5d_pct = 1.49% (83.96 vs 82.73 on Oct 9). The 20-day high is 85.79 and the 20-day low is 76.44; avg_volume_20d is 7,344,993 shares. Oct 16 printed a high of 85.79 but closed below the open, leaving an upper wick and suggesting supply above 85. Latest intraday quote: 83.11 at 2026-10-19T14:57:00Z (Yahoo Finance, regular session). The elapsed-window move is negative, which may have flushed some weak hands ahead of the event. Invalidation: a close below 82.00 after earnings would break the recent higher-low structure and negate the upside thesis. Confidence is moderate because GM has a strong beat-and-raise history but the auto sector is sensitive to macro headlines.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | GE, GM, RTX, NFLX, ISRG | -2.39% | 20% |
| Perplexity | NFLX, CCK, GM, GE, RTX | +0.13% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | CLF, STLD, NFLX, GE, GM | -2.35% | 20% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | STLD, HAS, NFLX, CLF, WAL | +1.48% | 80% |
| GPT-6 | STLD, GM, WAL, ZION, GE | +0.39% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-19.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.