Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-19
Muse Spark 1.1 picked GE, GM, RTX, NFLX, ISRG for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -2.39%. Picks with positive alpha: 20%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-19 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-20 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -2.39% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +0.19% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GE | -3.77% | -3.77% | 72% | -3.96% | No | |
| 2 | GM | -6.00% | -6.00% | 68% | -6.19% | No | |
| 3 | RTX | +1.53% | -1.53% | 65% | -1.72% | No | |
| 4 | NFLX | +1.05% | +1.05% | 70% | +0.86% | Yes | |
| 5 | ISRG | +0.74% | -0.74% | 62% | -0.92% | No |
The model's market view
Major Q3 earnings week starting Oct 20 with 70+ S&P 500 reporters. Focus is on aerospace/defense (GE, RTX), autos (GM), and high-beta tech/medtech (NFLX, ISRG) reporting Oct 20. Pre-market Oct 19 shows mixed positioning with options pricing ~9.5% move for NFLX. Anticipation into Oct 20 open is the scored window, not the post-close reactions, so direction is driven by expectation reset and positioning.
Why each pick
GE
GE Aerospace reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 20, confirmed by company IR Sept 29. Consensus EPS ~$1.43, revenue ~$11B, price target avg $391 vs $313.96 current. Stock is down from 388.84 high, SMA20 ~312.92, under 50-day 330.45, suggesting oversold into earnings but aerospace aftermarket demand strong. Thesis: beat on services margin and LEAP spares should drive up 4-5% in anticipation during Oct 20 morning session. Counter-evidence: GE down 1.6% recently despite market up; supply chain delays could miss. Invalidation: close below $300 or pre-market print showing engine delivery cut. Daily history unavailable verified; reporting null for OHLCV to avoid estimation. Intraday evidence: latest_price $313.96 on 2026-10-19, quote_time 2026-10-19T14:20:00Z, source https://upstox.com, type delayed prior close. Pre-event price $313.20 open same day. Observed event-to-quote move null as event not yet occurred. Anticipation explains expected up move within window even though actual release is at 2026-10-20T10:30:00Z, after window start but before window end pre-market.
GM
General Motors reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 20, 2026 at ~6:30am ET per Sept 15 IR release. Consensus EPS $3.41-3.70, YoY growth >20% despite EV charge. Stock at ~$83.96 with market cap $73.67B and avg daily traded value $632.62M. Trading near 52-week high $91.85, showing strength vs sector. Thesis: up move 3.5% on expectation of ICE truck pricing beat and buyback update. Counter: JPMorgan cut target $120 to $110 Oct 13, high inventories risk. Invalidation: guidance cut on EV losses or close below 50-day $84.34. Daily bars null not verified. Latest_price $83.96, quote_time 2026-10-19T12:00:00Z, source https://finnhub.io, delayed prior close. Pre-event path flat, no reaction yet. Remaining window captures pre-market positioning into earnings.
RTX
RTX Corp reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 20, 2026, confirmed Sept 29 release, call 8:30am ET. Consensus EPS $1.77-1.78, revenue $24.05B, FY guide $7.10-7.25. Market cap $251.03B, avg daily traded value $989.07M. Stock near $186.56, below 52-week high $226.88, defense backlog strong with $729M naval contract. Thesis: down 3% on risk of Pratt & Whitney GTF costs and commercial aero margin miss, sentiment has been weak vs GE. Counter: defense budget tailwind and buyback could support. Invalidation: pre-market >$195 or EPS beat >5%. Daily history null unverified. Latest_price $186.56, quote_time 2026-10-19T14:00:00Z, source https://marketbeat.com, delayed. No observed reaction yet as event after window start.
NFLX
Netflix Q3 2026 earnings scheduled after close Oct 20, 2026 at 4:45pm ET, confirmed across TipRanks and MarketBeat. EPS est $0.82, revenue $12.87B, implied move +/-9.57% per options. Market cap $293.68B, avg daily traded value $3.79B, price $70.53 Oct 16 close. Stock down 42% YoY and 16% past 30 days, trading below 50-day $75.40 and 200-day $81.19, oversold. Thesis: up 5.5% into earnings on anticipation of ad-tier subscriber beat and password-sharing tailwind, short covering. Counter: content spend and churn risk, prior Q1 miss -7.89%. Invalidation: guidance cut on engagement or close below $68 low. Intraday null but anticipation drives window even though event occurs after window end (after close Oct 20). Window from Oct 19 14:22Z to Oct 20 14:22Z includes only anticipation, not result. Latest_price $70.53, quote_time 2026-10-16T20:00:00Z, source https://stockanalysis.com, prior close. Daily bars null.
ISRG
Intuitive Surgical reports Q3 2026 after close Oct 20, 2026, confirmed after-close. EPS est $2.61-2.65, revenue $2.91B. Market cap $148.83B, avg daily traded value $1.05B. Stock $426.70 range, high $603.88, low $328.57, margins pressured by China pricing and freight per Zacks. Thesis: down 4% on fear of procedure growth slowdown and margin pressure, anticipation of miss in morning session. Counter: ISRG beat last quarter 11.5% surprise, da Vinci placements resilient. Invalidation: pre-market up >$440 or raised procedure guide. Latest_price $426.70, quote_time 2026-10-19T14:00:00Z, source https://marketbeat.com, delayed. Event after window but anticipation of high valuation into earnings causes down move.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | NFLX, CCK, GM, GE, RTX | +0.13% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | CLF, STLD, NFLX, GE, GM | -2.35% | 20% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | STLD, HAS, NFLX, CLF, WAL | +1.48% | 80% |
| GPT-6 | STLD, GM, WAL, ZION, GE | +0.39% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | STLD, GE, RTX, HAL, GM | -1.62% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-19.
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