Event Gaps: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-19
Grok 4.5 picked CLF, STLD, NFLX, GE, GM for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -2.35%. Picks with positive alpha: 20%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-19 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-20 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -2.35% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +0.19% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLF | -1.63% | -1.63% | 68% | -1.81% | No | |
| 2 | STLD | -0.48% | -0.48% | 62% | -0.67% | No | |
| 3 | NFLX | +1.05% | +1.05% | 58% | +0.86% | Yes | |
| 4 | GE | -3.77% | -3.77% | 55% | -3.96% | No | |
| 5 | GM | -6.00% | -6.00% | 52% | -6.19% | No |
The model's market view
US markets are recovering from last week's tech/AI selloff with futures higher on Monday as chip names rebound. Earnings season intensifies with steel names already reporting or due after the close today and major industrials/tech due Tuesday. Focus is on guidance quality amid mixed macro signals from oil and yields. Expect elevated single-name volatility around prints while the broader market remains range-bound pending larger tech reports later in the week.
Why each pick
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q3 results before the open on 2026-10-19: adjusted EPS $0.28 beat consensus ~$0.24, adjusted EBITDA $612M exceeded its own $575M guide, and Q4 EBITDA guided to ~$715M with 2027 EBITDA expected >$4B. Stock gapped higher and was trading ~+11-13% in the morning session (latest observed ~13.50-13.66 range). The positive print and raised multi-year outlook provide a fundamental catalyst that is only partially reflected so far; continuation risk exists if profit-taking sets in or if steel peers disappoint. Strongest counter-evidence is the modest revenue miss versus some estimates and elevated short interest. Invalidation would be a close back below the pre-earnings ~12.12 level on volume. Partial-session volume already elevated versus recent averages. latest_price 13.56 quote_time 2026-10-19T14:21:00Z source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CLF/ (intraday regular-session delayed). Completed daily bars unavailable in full verified form so return_5d_pct high_20d low_20d avg_volume_20d set null; recent closes clustered 12.1-12.9 prior to the print.
STLD
Steel Dynamics is scheduled to report Q3 after the close on 2026-10-19 with consensus EPS ~$5.40-5.47 (nearly double prior-year) and revenue ~$6.4-6.5B. Pre-announced guidance range was tight at $5.34-5.38. Options implied move ~8-9%. Positive steel pricing environment and aluminum ramp progress support upside bias into the print; the stock was modestly higher intraday. Counter-evidence includes potential for sequential margin pressure or softer guidance commentary. Invalidation level near recent support ~235-238. latest_price 243.20 quote_time 2026-10-19T13:48:00Z source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STLD/ (intraday). Full 5d/20d OHLCV not fully verified in sources so historical stats null.
NFLX
Netflix reports Q3 after the close on 2026-10-20. Consensus EPS ~$0.82, revenue ~$12.9B. Stock has been under pressure in the recent tech selloff (down ~12% over the prior week) and was softer intraday. Anticipation of subscriber/engagement metrics and any commentary on advertising or content spend can drive a sharp move; historical post-earnings moves average high single digits. Direction leans modestly up on potential for a relief bounce if numbers meet or beat after the selloff, but downside risk is material if guidance is soft. Counter-evidence is the broader AI/tech valuation reset. Invalidation would be a break below the recent 65-67 range. latest_price 69.50 quote_time 2026-10-19T14:10:00Z source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/ (intraday). Historical bars partial; 20d stats null.
GE
GE Aerospace reports Q3 before the open on 2026-10-20. Consensus EPS ~$2.01-2.06. Aerospace demand remains a bright spot; positive surprise or raised full-year commentary could extend the recent recovery from last week's weakness. Stock was modestly higher in early trading. Risk is that any guidance caution on commercial or defense mix weighs on the shares. Counter-evidence includes broader industrials sensitivity to rates and oil. Invalidation near 300 support. latest_price 313.83 quote_time 2026-10-19T12:00:00Z source https://www.stockmarketcap.com/ (snapshot). Full verified 5d/20d OHLCV null.
GM
General Motors reports Q3 before the open on 2026-10-20. Consensus EPS ~$3.50-3.70. EV transition progress, China exposure and any commentary on tariffs or inventory will drive the reaction. Stock has been relatively stable versus pure tech names. Slight positive bias on potential for solid auto production numbers, but risk of guidance caution remains elevated. Counter-evidence is consumer spending softness signals. Invalidation below recent lows near 40-42 range if available. latest_price approx 48-50 range inferred from calendar context but exact live quote limited; used calendar-linked sources. Historical stats null.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | GE, GM, RTX, NFLX, ISRG | -2.39% | 20% |
| Perplexity | NFLX, CCK, GM, GE, RTX | +0.13% | 60% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | STLD, HAS, NFLX, CLF, WAL | +1.48% | 80% |
| GPT-6 | STLD, GM, WAL, ZION, GE | +0.39% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | STLD, GE, RTX, HAL, GM | -1.62% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-19.
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