Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-29
Muse Spark 1.1 picked CCL, KMX, SRRK, MU, JEF for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -2.05%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v10 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-29 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-30 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -2.05% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.39% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CCL | +1.94% | +1.94% | 78% | +1.54% | Yes | |
| 2 | KMX | -8.21% | -8.21% | 72% | -8.61% | No | |
| 3 | SRRK | +1.85% | +1.85% | 68% | +1.46% | Yes | |
| 4 | MU | -0.26% | -0.26% | 65% | -0.66% | No | |
| 5 | JEF | -3.58% | -3.58% | 60% | -3.98% | No |
The model's market view
Market is in quarter-end positioning with cruise and auto retail earnings beating today driving intraday momentum, while biotech PDUFA and Micron memory earnings tomorrow create high anticipation volatility into Sep 30 close. SPY likely muted vs single-name event gaps.
Why each pick
CCL
Carnival reported Q3 FY2026 before open Sep 29: revenue $8.44B vs $8.35B est (1.1% beat), adjusted EPS $1.43 vs $1.35 est (5.9% beat), EBITDA $2.99B beat, and raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $2.24 midpoint. Stock already up 12.4% to $24.885 intraday on volume surge. Beat plus guide raise should sustain emotional continuation into next session as shorts cover and momentum chases. Risk: move already largely priced, cruise demand comments could reverse if macro fears. Price is intraday live Sep 29.
KMX
CarMax reported Q2 FY27 results Sep 29 morning: net revenues up 19.5% to $7.9B, combined used unit sales up 14.7%, adjusted EPS $1.16 vs consensus $0.72, beating by 59%. Announces resuming share repurchases Q3 FY27 and strategic update Nov 3. Intraday up 9.9% to $62.1456 showing strong reaction. Used-car pricing strength thesis validated. Risk: pullback after gap if market takes profit.
SRRK
Scholar Rock has PDUFA action date for apitegromab BLA for spinal muscular atrophy set for Sep 30, 2026. FDA accepted resubmission March 2026 after CRL related to third-party Catalent fill-finish OAI, not efficacy. Company said approval decision anticipated by Sep 30 and may be granted any time through Sep 30. Company has alternate fill-finish supply ready. Biotech binary into deadline typically sees run-up and volatility. Expect up on approval optimism. Risk: delay or CRL due to manufacturing.
MU
Micron Technology reports fiscal Q4 2026 after close Sep 30. Consensus EPS ~$31.49-$31.62 on revenue ~$50.9-$51.2B, up ~350% YoY, guidance $50B +/- $1B and $31 +/- $1. Stock up 275% YTD to ~1072, options pricing 11% move vs 8.14% average. Memory demand driven by AI. Pre-earnings run likely to continue into earnings anticipation during window, even though actual print is just after window end (after close Sep 30). Risk: high expectations, 【entity-Wells Fargo¦canonical_name=Wells Fargo】 cut price target to $1400 from $1525.
JEF
Jefferies Financial Group announced Q3 results Sep 29: reported $1.08 EPS beating consensus $1.00 by $0.08 per FiscalAI. Financial services earnings set tone for brokers. Stock at $47.825 intraday up slightly from $47.13 prior close, lagging beat suggests upside catch-up potential as investors digest beat. Risk: financials weak month -9.92%, macro headwinds.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | FICO, KMX, SMMT, CCL, MU | +0.50% | 60% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | MU, CCL, JBL, FDS, CAG | -2.13% | 20% |
| Perplexity | MU, JBL, CCL, FDS, CALM | -1.11% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | MU, SMMT, KMX, CCL, CNXC | -1.52% | 40% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | CNXC, CAG, CCL, MU, FICO | -2.79% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | MU, CAG, JBL, CALM, NKE | -0.42% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-29.
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