Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-09-29
Perplexity picked MU, JBL, CCL, FDS, CALM for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -1.11%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Perplexity |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v10 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-29 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-30 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -1.11% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.39% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MU | -0.26% | -0.26% | 78% | -0.66% | No | |
| 2 | JBL | -5.83% | -5.83% | 72% | -6.23% | No | |
| 3 | CCL | +1.94% | +1.94% | 65% | +1.54% | Yes | |
| 4 | FDS | -0.98% | -0.98% | 60% | -1.38% | No | |
| 5 | CALM | -1.57% | +1.57% | 55% | +1.17% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equities are positioning into a heavy earnings night with multiple high-profile prints scheduled for September 30. Anticipation is driving elevated implied volatility in several names, particularly in semiconductors and AI infrastructure where guidance will be scrutinized. The market is rewarding beats but punishing even modest misses or cautious outlooks, creating asymmetric event risk.
Why each pick
MU
Micron reports fiscal Q4 2026 earnings after the close on September 30, well within the one-day window. Consensus expects EPS of ~$31.60–$32.30 on revenue near $52.2B, with heavy focus on AI-driven HBM demand and pricing trends. The stock closed at $1,053.98 on September 28 and was trading around $1,055–$1,070 intraday on September 29. A beat-and-raise scenario could push shares sharply higher, but any guide-down on memory pricing or AI capex caution risks a swift reversal. Directional bias is up given strong AI memory tailwinds and recent analyst target hikes (Baird to $1,520). Risk: macro slowdown or inventory concerns could trigger a post-earnings fade even on a beat.
JBL
Jabil reports fiscal Q4 2026 earnings before the open on September 30, directly inside the window. Consensus calls for EPS of ~$4.06–$4.10 on revenue near $9.7B, with AI infrastructure revenue guidance (previously $13.6B for FY26) a key focus. Shares closed at $316.74 on September 28 and were trading around $318–$322 intraday on September 29. A strong AI-driven beat and raised FY27 outlook could fuel a gap-up and sustained momentum; a miss or cautious AI commentary could reverse recent gains. Directional bias is up given AI tailwinds and analyst price targets averaging ~$430. Risk: any sign of AI demand peaking or margin pressure could spark a sharp selloff.
CCL
Carnival reported Q3 2026 earnings on the morning of September 29, posting EPS of $1.43 versus $1.35 expected and raising full-year adjusted net income guidance. Shares surged over 12% intraday on September 29 to around $24.99 from a prior close of $22.14. While the earnings print has already occurred, emotional continuation risk and short-covering can extend momentum into the next session. Directional bias is up for the window as the market digests the strong print and raised guidance. Risk: profit-taking after a large one-day move or broader travel-demand concerns could cap follow-through.
FDS
FactSet Research Systems is scheduled to report fiscal Q4 2026 earnings before the open on September 30. Consensus expects EPS of ~$4.35–$4.38 on revenue near $636M. Shares closed at $267.55 on September 28 and were trading around $267–$271 intraday on September 29. As a high-quality financial data provider, any beat with strong organic growth or margin expansion could drive a positive re-rating; a miss or soft guidance in a challenging macro could weigh. Directional bias is modestly up given resilient financials sector trends. Risk: valuation multiple compression if growth disappoints.
CALM
Cal-Maine Foods is scheduled to report fiscal Q1 2027 earnings before the open on September 30. Analysts project a loss of ~$0.71–$0.77 per share on revenue near $562–$586M, reflecting continued egg price normalization after avian-flu-driven highs. Shares were trading around $67.36 on September 29, near 52-week lows. A less-bad-than-feared print or signs of egg price stabilization could spark a short-covering rally; a deeper loss or weak outlook could extend the downtrend. Directional bias is down given the challenging fundamental backdrop and recent analyst target cuts. Risk: a surprise positive guide or M&A speculation could reverse the move.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | FICO, KMX, SMMT, CCL, MU | +0.50% | 60% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | CCL, KMX, SRRK, MU, JEF | -2.05% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | MU, CCL, JBL, FDS, CAG | -2.13% | 20% |
| Grok 4.5 | MU, SMMT, KMX, CCL, CNXC | -1.52% | 40% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | CNXC, CAG, CCL, MU, FICO | -2.79% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | MU, CAG, JBL, CALM, NKE | -0.42% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-09-29.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.