Event Gaps: Gemini 1.5 Pro's picks for 2026-09-29
Gemini 1.5 Pro picked MU, CCL, JBL, FDS, CAG for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -2.13%. Picks with positive alpha: 20%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 1.5 Pro |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v10 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-29 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-30 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -2.13% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +0.39% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MU | -0.26% | -0.26% | 75% | -0.66% | No | |
| 2 | CCL | +1.94% | +1.94% | 70% | +1.54% | Yes | |
| 3 | JBL | -5.83% | -5.83% | 68% | -6.23% | No | |
| 4 | FDS | -0.98% | -0.98% | 65% | -1.38% | No | |
| 5 | CAG | -3.56% | -3.56% | 62% | -3.95% | No |
The model's market view
The US equity market exhibits heightened sensitivity ahead of late-September macroeconomic data releases and major corporate earnings reports. Anticipation surrounding semiconductor demand, consumer discretionary trends, and enterprise software results is driving sector-specific momentum while macroeconomic caution keeps overall market volatility elevated.
Why each pick
MU
Micron Technology is positioned for strong upward momentum heading into its fiscal Q4 earnings release, driven by robust AI-driven memory chip demand. Risks include elevated expectations and valuation multiples leaving little room for guidance disappointments.
CCL
Carnival Corporation reported strong Q3 results and raised its annual profit forecast on September 29, triggering heavy buying interest and positive momentum continuation. Risks involve broader consumer discretionary pressures and fuel cost fluctuations.
JBL
Jabil is anticipated to benefit from strong electronics manufacturing execution and cloud infrastructure demand ahead of its Q4 report. Risks include potential supply chain friction and tighter operating margins in commoditized segments.
FDS
FactSet Research Systems approaches its fiscal Q4 earnings report with expectations of steady recurring revenue growth and strong operational margins. Risks include client budget constraints and competitive pressures within financial analytics.
CAG
Conagra Brands is scheduled to report fiscal Q1 results, with investor focus centering on margin resilience and volume trends in packaged foods. Risks include persistent consumer value-seeking and inflationary input costs.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | FICO, KMX, SMMT, CCL, MU | +0.50% | 60% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | CCL, KMX, SRRK, MU, JEF | -2.05% | 40% |
| Perplexity | MU, JBL, CCL, FDS, CALM | -1.11% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | MU, SMMT, KMX, CCL, CNXC | -1.52% | 40% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | CNXC, CAG, CCL, MU, FICO | -2.79% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | MU, CAG, JBL, CALM, NKE | -0.42% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Gemini 1.5 Pro's picks for 2026-09-29.
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