Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-10-12
Perplexity picked JPM, DPZ, UNH, JNJ, C for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +1.17%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Perplexity |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-12 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-13 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +1.17% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.06% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JPM | -0.35% | -0.35% | 62% | -0.29% | No | |
| 2 | DPZ | -2.59% | +2.59% | 58% | +2.65% | Yes | |
| 3 | UNH | -1.18% | -1.18% | 55% | -1.12% | No | |
| 4 | JNJ | -4.99% | +4.99% | 52% | +5.05% | Yes | |
| 5 | C | -0.52% | -0.52% | 50% | -0.46% | No |
The model's market view
The one-session window captures the opening reaction to the densely scheduled October 13 pre-market earnings cycle. JPMorgan, Citigroup, UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson and Domino's all report before the open, so anticipation is already embedded in Monday's prices and the residual opportunity is primarily the surprise component at Tuesday's open. Broad sentiment is constructive but fragile: futures were muted with oil above $100, while third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth expectations remain high, leaving limited room for disappointment.
Why each pick
JPM
JPMorgan is scheduled to report Q3 2026 results before the October 13 open, with consensus near $5.93 EPS and $51.23B revenue; prior management commentary pointed to strong trading and investment-banking activity. The verified setup supports an upside surprise: the bank posted record revenue across businesses last quarter, and the stock entered the event near $333.57 after a modest pre-earnings advance rather than a large run-up. Latest verifiable quote: $333.57, 2026-10-12 intraday, live, https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/JPM/. The catalyst has not occurred yet; the forecast is for the remaining window after the current quote, mainly the opening reaction. Risks: elevated market-wide earnings expectations, oil/geopolitical risk-off, and any softening in net interest income or credit costs could reverse an opening gain. A close below the pre-earnings $332.99 reference would invalidate the upside thesis. Completed five-session OHLC history, 20-day high/low, 20-day average share volume and 20-day average dollar volume could not be independently verified from the available sources, so those figures are reported as null rather than estimated. Market cap $885.23B and average volume 7.35M imply approximately $2.45B average daily dollar volume at the quoted price.
DPZ
Domino's reports Q3 2026 results at 06:05 ET on October 13, before the open. Consensus is approximately $4.33-$4.39 EPS and $1.17B revenue, but the company missed EPS in three of its last four quarters and analyst revisions have been mixed-to-cautious, with RBC and Guggenheim cutting targets while BofA raised theirs. That creates asymmetric downside if U.S. same-store sales, order counts or margins again disappoint. Latest verifiable quote: $303.10, Nasdaq quote page, timestamp not displayed, treated as latest available regular-session/delayed quote, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/dpz. The event is officially scheduled but has not occurred; the forecast covers the post-quote remainder of the window, including the opening reaction. Risks: low expectations can produce a relief rally on an in-line print, and promotions may already be lifting comps. A reported U.S. same-store-sales result above roughly 1% with margin expansion would invalidate the downside thesis. Completed five-session OHLC, 20-day range and 20-day average volume were not verifiable from available sources and are null. Market cap $10.23B and average volume 727,530 shares imply approximately $220M average daily dollar volume at the quoted price.
UNH
UnitedHealth is scheduled to report Q3 2026 results before the October 13 open, with consensus near $4.12 EPS and $111.31B revenue. The stock closed October 9 at $379.30 and traded near $379.98 on October 12, up from the prior $370.75 close, indicating some positive pre-event positioning but not an extreme run-up. Latest verifiable quote: $379.98, Robinhood snapshot dated 2026-10-11 with intraday volume 7.47M, live, https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/UNH/. The earnings release has not occurred; the expected move is the remaining-window reaction to the scheduled print. Managed-care guidance and medical-cost trends are the central swing factors; a constructive outlook could extend the recent advance, while cost pressure could quickly unwind it. Risks: the stock has already rebounded sharply from its 52-week low area, so a merely in-line report may trigger profit-taking. A break back below the verified $373.02 October 9 low would invalidate the upside thesis. Five-session OHLC is only partially verifiable: the October 9 bar was open 373.94, high 387.52, low 373.02, close 379.30, volume 7,462,300; the other four bars and 20-day statistics could not be verified and are null. Market cap $340.44B and average volume 5.13M imply approximately $1.95B average daily dollar volume.
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson is scheduled to report Q3 2026 results before the October 13 open, with an 08:30 ET investor call. Koyfin-based expectations cited in reporting were roughly $25.38B revenue, $2.07 GAAP EPS, lower EBITDA and EBIT year over year, implying a demanding comparison even for a defensive healthcare name. The stock traded near $261.00 with a $630.16B market cap, close to its recent $262.00 high, suggesting limited pre-event upside cushion. Latest verifiable quote: $261.00, Robinhood, as of 2026-10-11, live snapshot, https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/JNJ/. The event is scheduled, not yet reported; the forecast applies to the remaining window after this quote. A downside call reflects valuation near recent highs and consensus expecting lower profitability, not an observed negative result. Risks: pharmaceutical pipeline updates, oncology momentum or better-than-feared operational results could produce an upside gap; JNJ's defensive profile also limits the likely magnitude. A close above the recently observed $262.00 high would invalidate the downside thesis. Completed five-session OHLC, 20-day range and 20-day average volume were not independently verifiable and are null. Average volume 7.14M at $261 implies approximately $1.86B average daily dollar volume.
C
Citigroup is scheduled to report Q3 2026 results before the October 13 open. Consensus cited in the earnings-calendar snapshot was approximately $2.65 EPS and $23.72B revenue, with market cap about $217.46B; the quoted price was $129.72, up 0.06% in the displayed snapshot. Bank earnings are expected to open the quarter with strength, and Citi's lower valuation and sensitivity to trading/markets revenue make it a higher-beta expression of a constructive financial-sector print. Latest verifiable quote: $129.72, Investing.com earnings-calendar snapshot, timestamp not displayed, treated as latest available quote, https://www.investing.com/earnings-calendar. The earnings event is officially scheduled but has not occurred; the forecast is for the remaining window and opening reaction. Risks: the entire bank complex reports the same morning, so an idiosyncratic Citi miss could be amplified by sector-wide risk-off; expense or credit-cost surprises are the main downside triggers. A move below the quoted $129.64 level on heavy volume would challenge the upside thesis. Completed five-session OHLC, 20-day range, 20-day average share volume and 20-day average dollar volume could not be verified from available sources and are null; the dollar-volume floor therefore cannot be confirmed and confidence is reduced accordingly.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | JPM, GS, JNJ, DPZ, UNH | -1.22% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | MIRM, BMY, JPM, UNH, GS | -0.20% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | IREN, WFC, ONDS, NBIS, JPM | -0.76% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-10-12.
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