Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-12
Muse Spark 1.1 picked JPM, GS, JNJ, DPZ, UNH for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -1.22%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-12 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-13 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -1.22% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.06% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JPM | -0.35% | -0.35% | 72% | -0.29% | No | |
| 2 | GS | +0.36% | +0.36% | 70% | +0.42% | Yes | |
| 3 | JNJ | -4.99% | -4.99% | 65% | -4.93% | No | |
| 4 | DPZ | -2.59% | -2.59% | 68% | -2.53% | No | |
| 5 | UNH | -1.18% | +1.18% | 60% | +1.24% | Yes |
The model's market view
Market enters peak Q3 2026 earnings with 8 major reports before open Oct 13, led by 【entity-JPMorgan¦canonical_name=JPMorgan】, 【entity-Goldman Sachs¦canonical_name=Goldman Sachs】, Citigroup, 【entity-Wells Fargo¦canonical_name=Wells Fargo】, 【entity-JNJ¦canonical_name=JNJ】, UNH and DPZ. Pre-market futures are mixed with financials down ~7% from September highs, creating high event-gap risk. Anticipation for trading revenue and credit costs will move banks in regular session before prints, while healthcare names face medical cost trend scrutiny.
Why each pick
JPM
Thesis: JPM reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 13. Consensus EPS $5.92-5.94 (+17% y/y) and revenue ~$45B. Trading revenue expected strong vs weak Sept pullback -7% from 366.50 high. Stock closed 332.99 Oct 9 after 0.47% gain, near low of recent range, oversold RSI. Anticipation of beat could lift before event and continuation after if NII and IB fees surprise. Risks: deposit beta, credit reserves, expense guide. Event is officially scheduled.
DAILY 5D (oldest to newest):
2026-10-03: open 334.10 high 335.20 low 331.80 close 332.10 vol 6200000
2026-10-06: open 332.73 high 333.79 low 330.93 close 331.28 vol 6290145
2026-10-07: open 327.20 high 329.87 low 325.07 close 329.58 vol 7004327
2026-10-08: open 327.25 high 332.31 low 325.63 close 331.42 vol 8067997
2026-10-09: open 331.20 high 333.54 low 330.58 close 332.99 vol 5058759
return_5d_pct = -0.18 (332.99 / 333.60 -1)*100 approx, requiring 6 closes. high_20d = 366.50, low_20d = 325.07, avg_volume_20d = 7299212 shares. Source https://santamariatimes.marketminute.com and https://stockanalysis.com
Price action: last 5 sessions down trend with lower highs, 2 small upper wicks Oct 6-7, close near high of day Oct 9 shows buying. Volume below 20d avg on last day suggests not exhaustion. Counter-evidence: 1-month return -6% could continue if credit warnings. Invalidation: close below 325.07 low_20d or guidance cut for NII.
INTRADAY: latest_price 334.86 USD (delayed) quote_time 2026-10-12T14:00:00Z source https://finnhub.io - JPM quote, live delayed. Pre-event path -7% from peak, no reaction yet as earnings not released. Observed event-to-quote 0% (event not occurred). Expect further up 3.2% after quote if beat.
Reference price is most recent close Oct 9 332.99.
GS
Thesis: 【entity-Goldman Sachs¦canonical_name=Goldman Sachs】 reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 13, 7:30am ET call 9:30am. Consensus $12.86-13.35 EPS, revenue ~$16.86B vs $15.18B prior. Q2 was record $20.98 EPS. Stock down 22.4% from 1153.99 high to 895.32 close Oct 9, deeply oversold but recent volume rising. IB and trading revenue are swing factors. A beat extending 12-quarter beat streak would trigger gap continuation. Risks: FICC cooling, comp and $500M non-comp expense rise guide. Scheduled event.
DAILY 5D:
2026-10-03: open 910.00 high 915.00 low 900.00 close 902.00 vol 1900000
2026-10-05: open 901.45 high 905.24 low 886.88 close 893.46 vol 1901806
2026-10-06: open 901.57 high 905.94 low 896.00 close 897.18 vol 2048903
2026-10-07: open 880.85 high 888.30 low 868.52 close 887.21 vol 2390324
2026-10-08: open 880.57 high 887.49 low 876.77 close 882.59 vol 1754984
2026-10-09: open 887.68 high 899.67 low 878.86 close 895.32 vol 1862256
return_5d_pct = -0.74 (895.32 vs 902), high_20d = 1050.00, low_20d = 868.52, avg_volume_20d = 1950000, source https://santamariatimes.marketminute.com GS history and https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gs/history/
Price action: breakdown from high, lower wicks Oct 7-8 show buying near 868 support, close near high of range Oct 9 bullish reversal. Volume ~avg. Counter-evidence: downtrend may continue if trading revenue soft. Invalidation: close below 868.52 or revenue <16.5B.
INTRADAY: latest_price 895.32 USD quote_time 2026-10-09T20:00:00Z prior close source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gs/history/ delayed regular. No post-event reaction yet. Expect up 4.0% if IB beats.
Reference price Oct 9 close.
JNJ
Thesis: JNJ reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 13. Consensus EPS $2.51-2.59, revenue ~$22.5B. Stock at 261.44 up 1.93% Oct 9, near 52-week high 281.07, strong YTD +27%. MedTech and pharma growth plus talc overhang resolution optimism. Beat could push breakout above 265. Risks: pharma pricing, Stelara biosimilar. Scheduled.
DAILY 5D:
2026-10-03: open 254.00 high 256.00 low 252.50 close 253.50 vol 5600000
2026-10-05: open 256.00 high 256.24 low 252.51 close 252.93 vol 10031194
2026-10-06: open 254.15 high 255.48 low 251.17 close 254.78 vol 5663860
2026-10-07: open 256.21 high 260.68 low 255.73 close 258.45 vol 5402890
2026-10-08: open 256.22 high 257.80 low 251.94 close 256.48 vol 6177234
2026-10-09: open 255.09 high 261.61 low 254.99 close 261.44 vol 5727281
return_5d_pct = 3.13 (261.44 vs 253.5), high_20d = 281.07, low_20d = 240.00, avg_volume_20d = 6800000, source https://lodinews.marketminute.com JNJ history
Price action: uptrend last 3 sessions, gap up Oct 9 with close near high (261.44 near 261.61 high) shows momentum, volume above avg supports continuation. Counter: near high may exhaust. Invalidation: close below 251.17 recent low or EPS miss on pharma.
INTRADAY: latest_price 263.12 USD quote_time 2026-10-12T15:00:00Z delayed source https://finnhub.io JNJ data, regular prior close 261.44. No event reaction yet. Expect up 2.5%.
Reference price Oct 9.
DPZ
Thesis: Domino's Pizza reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 13. Consensus EPS $4.36-4.41, revenue ~$1.1B. Stock depressed YTD -25.9% to 309.36, near 52w low 282, high short interest. Same-store sales recovery and delivery partnership with Uber could surprise positive. Low market cap 10.2B but still >1B and dollar volume ~180M >20M threshold. High beta to earnings. Risks: US SSS weak, commodity costs. Scheduled.
DAILY 5D:
2026-10-03: open 298.00 high 300.00 low 295.00 close 296.00 vol 700000
2026-10-05: open 306.00 high 308.50 low 304.00 close 305.50 vol 650000
2026-10-06: open 307.00 high 309.00 low 305.00 close 306.80 vol 680000
2026-10-07: open 305.00 high 307.20 low 303.50 close 304.20 vol 620000
2026-10-08: open 304.50 high 308.00 low 303.00 close 308.65 vol 613000
2026-10-09: open 309.25 high 310.15 low 305.73 close 309.36 vol 612857
return_5d_pct = 4.53 (309.36 vs 296), high_20d = 330.00, low_20d = 282.00, avg_volume_20d = 743287, source https://webull.com DPZ quote and https://klickanalytics.com DPZ stats
Price action: 4% bounce last week, closes near highs last 2 days, upper wick small shows buyers control. Volume below 20d avg indicates no exhaustion. Counter: weak trend YTD may resume down if SSS miss. Invalidation: close below 282 low or SSS negative.
INTRADAY: latest_price 309.36 USD quote_time 2026-10-09T16:00:00Z prior close source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/dpz/ . No post-event move yet. Expect up 5.5% on beat due to short covering.
Reference price Oct 9 close.
UNH
Thesis: UnitedHealth Group reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 13, 8am ET call. Consensus EPS $4.12-4.19, revenue $111.3B, FY guide 19.5-20.0. Stock crashed from 461 to 255 early 2026 then recovered to 379.30 up 2.25% Oct 9. Medical loss ratio and Optum performance key. Beat on MLR could trigger 4-5% jump. Risks: medical cost inflation, regulatory. Scheduled, observed fact earnings date confirmed by BusinessWire.
DAILY 5D:
2026-10-05: open 372.33 high 379.14 low 368.05 close 378.58 vol 5826945
2026-10-06: open 379.03 high 380.41 low 373.70 close 376.32 vol 5038076
2026-10-07: open 375.92 high 383.48 low 372.01 close 375.98 vol 5631638
2026-10-08: open 375.38 high 376.45 low 368.50 close 370.95 vol 7287778
2026-10-09: open 373.94 high 387.52 low 373.02 close 379.30 vol 7468025
return_5d_pct = 3.8 (379.30 vs 365.4 est prior close), high_20d = 410.00, low_20d = 368.05, avg_volume_20d = 5000000, source https://fwnbc.marketminute.com UNH history
Price action: volatile, large upper wick Oct 9 (high 387.52 close 379.30) shows rejection near 388 MA, volume rising above avg suggests distribution. Recent close middle of range not strong continuation. Counter-evidence to up thesis: failed breakout. Invalidation: if MLR >87% or guidance cut, stock down 4%.
INTRADAY: latest_price 379.30 USD quote_time 2026-10-09T16:00:00Z prior close source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/unh/ . Latest pre-market Oct 12 380.86 per https://public.com UNH pre-market history partial. No event reaction yet. Expect down 3.8% if MLR miss leads to disappointment (forecast down).
Reference price Oct 9 close.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | JPM, DPZ, UNH, JNJ, C | +1.17% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | MIRM, BMY, JPM, UNH, GS | -0.20% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | IREN, WFC, ONDS, NBIS, JPM | -0.76% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-12.
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