Event Gaps: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-12
Grok 4.5 picked MIRM, BMY, JPM, UNH, GS for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -0.20%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-12 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-13 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -0.20% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.06% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIRM | +1.01% | +1.01% | 68% | +1.07% | Yes | |
| 2 | BMY | -1.15% | -1.15% | 65% | -1.09% | No | |
| 3 | JPM | -0.35% | -0.35% | 62% | -0.29% | No | |
| 4 | UNH | -1.18% | -1.18% | 60% | -1.12% | No | |
| 5 | GS | +0.36% | +0.36% | 58% | +0.42% | Yes |
The model's market view
Bank earnings season kicks off Tuesday before the open with JPM, GS, WFC, C, UNH and JNJ; positive Phase 3 readouts for MIRM and BMY today support selective upside in healthcare. Anticipation and post-print reactions are expected to drive the bulk of 1-session moves within the window, against a backdrop of steady indexes and elevated oil.
Why each pick
MIRM
Positive Phase 3 EXPAND topline results for LIVMARLI announced today (primary endpoint met on pruritus and bile acids; sNDA planned H1 2027) drove premarket strength into the open. Latest quote ~$91.30 (pre/early session, delayed sources) versus prior close $86.01 shows partial reflection of the news; remaining window allows for continuation on analyst upgrades and call commentary. Counter-evidence: recent 1-month weakness and high short interest could fuel profit-taking. Invalidation: close back below $86 without follow-through volume. daily_5d (oldest to newest, completed sessions to 2026-10-09): 2026-10-05 O81.43 H83.35 L81.23 C81.43 V980143; 2026-10-06 O81.94 H81.94 L77.78 C79.25 V1146951; 2026-10-07 O78.79 H83.13 L78.39 C80.64 V1020895; 2026-10-08 O80.31 H82.20 L78.63 C81.35 V664296; 2026-10-09 O81.01 H87.79 L81.01 C86.01 V1139715. return_5d_pct ~5.7; high_20d ~100.5 low_20d ~77.8; avg_volume_20d ~910k (source finance.yahoo.com / chartexchange). latest_price 91.30 quote_time 2026-10-12T12:18:00Z (approx pre/early) source tradesmith.com delayed/regular; partial session open/high/low/volume not fully verified relative to avg. Event already reflected partially; further upside expected on continuation.
BMY
Dual positive Phase 3 interim results (RYZ101 ACTION-1 met PFS primary endpoint; additional IPF data) announced 2026-10-12 drove premarket gains. Latest quote ~$61 early session versus prior close $59.12. Partial event reaction already observed; remaining window supports further upside on regulatory path comments. Counter-evidence: recent multi-week decline and modest multiple. Invalidation: fade below $59 on volume. daily_5d (to 2026-10-09): 2026-10-05 O59.89 H60.15 L58.33 C58.81 V19239537; 2026-10-06 O58.94 H59.60 L58.64 C59.59 V9885724; 2026-10-07 O59.45 H60.10 L59.01 C59.70 V11091915; 2026-10-08 O59.10 H59.94 L58.73 C59.58 V13070829; 2026-10-09 O58.88 H59.79 L58.74 C59.12 V9253525. return_5d_pct ~-3.3; high_20d ~64.6 low_20d ~58.3; avg_volume_20d ~12M (source tradesmith/marketwatch). latest_price 61.03 quote_time 2026-10-12T13:17:00Z source tradesmith delayed; partial session volume elevated but relative baseline unavailable. Pre-event close 59.12; observed reaction ~+3% already; further move expected.
JPM
Q3 2026 earnings scheduled before open 2026-10-13; historically strong beat rate and sector leadership support positive anticipation into the print and reaction within window. Latest quote ~$334 early session vs prior close $332.99. Price action recent sessions mixed with lower volume; no major pre-event gap. Counter-evidence: broad market caution on rates/oil. Invalidation: miss or weak guidance driving close below $325. daily_5d (to 2026-10-09): 2026-10-05 O331.66 H332.09 L328.95 C330.73 V5346072; 2026-10-06 O332.73 H333.79 L330.93 C331.28 V6272322; 2026-10-07 O327.20 H329.87 L325.07 C329.58 V7005559; 2026-10-08 O327.25 H332.31 L325.63 C331.42 V8069276; 2026-10-09 O331.20 H333.54 L330.58 C332.99 V5058748. return_5d_pct ~0.7; high_20d ~363 low_20d ~325; avg_volume_20d ~8M (source tradesmith). latest_price 334.05 quote_time 2026-10-12T13:18:00Z source tradesmith delayed regular; partial session mild green. Event upcoming; anticipation supports modest further upside.
UNH
Q3 2026 earnings before open 2026-10-13; historically higher post-print volatility (avg move ~7%). Latest quote ~$376-379 early session vs prior close $379.30 shows mild pressure. Recent 5d path mixed with higher volume on Friday. Counter-evidence: year-to-date underperformance and valuation. Invalidation: guidance cut or medical-cost ratio miss. daily_5d (to 2026-10-09): 2026-10-05 O372.33 H379.14 L368.05 C378.58 V5827539; 2026-10-06 O379.03 H380.41 L373.70 C376.32 V5037500; 2026-10-07 O375.92 H383.48 L372.01 C375.98 V5631976; 2026-10-08 O375.38 H376.45 L368.50 C370.95 V7293545; 2026-10-09 O373.94 H387.52 L373.02 C379.30 V7467985. return_5d_pct ~2.0; high_20d ~461 low_20d ~256; avg_volume_20d ~5.0M (source stockanalysis/tradesmith). latest_price 376.82 quote_time 2026-10-12T14:01:00Z source tradesmith delayed; partial session soft. Event upcoming; mild anticipation already, further move expected post-print.
GS
Q3 2026 earnings before open 2026-10-13; investment-banking and trading results key catalyst amid strong market backdrop. Latest quote ~$895 early session near prior close levels. Recent sessions showed recovery. Counter-evidence: elevated valuation vs peers and rate sensitivity. Invalidation: revenue miss or weaker outlook. daily_5d incomplete in sources but prior closes around 880-895 range with avg vol supporting liquidity; high_20d ~950 low_20d ~850 est from context; avg_volume_20d ~2.5M. latest_price 895.51 quote_time 2026-10-12T13:00:00Z approx source tradesmith delayed; partial mild. Event upcoming; anticipation supports upside.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | JPM, GS, JNJ, DPZ, UNH | -1.22% | 40% |
| Perplexity | JPM, DPZ, UNH, JNJ, C | +1.17% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | IREN, WFC, ONDS, NBIS, JPM | -0.76% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-12.
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