Event Gaps: Gemini 1.5 Pro's picks for 2026-09-10
Gemini 1.5 Pro picked COO, IQV, BAX, ADBE, CPRT for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +0.18%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 1.5 Pro |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v7 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-09 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-10 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +0.18% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.03% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COO | down | +4.41% | +4.41% | 90% | +4.44% | Yes |
| 2 | IQV | up | +1.07% | +1.07% | 85% | +1.10% | Yes |
| 3 | BAX | up | +0.12% | +0.12% | 80% | +0.15% | Yes |
| 4 | ADBE | down | -1.18% | -1.18% | 75% | -1.16% | No |
| 5 | CPRT | up | -3.64% | -3.64% | 70% | -3.61% | No |
The model's market view
Heading into Thursday, September 10, 2026, broader market sentiment remains cautious due to elevated crude oil prices and inflation concerns. However, the pre-market session is driven by highly idiosyncratic catalysts. Companies that reported weak forward guidance or missed revenue estimates in Wednesday's after-hours session are facing severe distribution. Conversely, firms announcing proactive debt restructuring, raising their operational outlooks, or preparing for high-stakes earnings reports today are experiencing pronounced positioning shifts that will materialize as sharp opening gaps.
Why each pick
COO
Cooper Companies reported its fiscal Q3 results, beating EPS estimates but missing top-line revenue expectations. More importantly, the company issued softer-than-expected guidance for both Q4 and the full fiscal year, citing channel inventory reductions at CooperVision. This forward-looking weakness sparked a severe 16% selloff in Wednesday's after-hours session. The magnitude of the after-hours distribution indicates a highly probable gap down at Thursday's open, with significant emotional continuation risk driving early selling pressure before value buyers attempt to establish a fundamental floor.
IQV
IQVIA Holdings announced the pricing of a massive $2 billion senior notes offering due 2034 at 6.375% to refinance existing debt. The market reacted positively to this proactive balance sheet management, sending shares up over 4% in after-hours trading. This debt restructuring effectively extends maturities and reduces near-term liquidity risks. The favorable institutional reception guarantees a definitive gap up at the open. The primary risk is a potential intraday fade if traders view the after-hours pop as fully pricing in the refinancing benefits.
BAX
During Wednesday's Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference, Baxter International's management raised its full-year 2026 operational growth outlook to 2%-3% and highlighted successful debt reduction efforts. These positive corporate updates injected optimism into the turnaround narrative, lifting shares over 2% in extended trading. We expect a solid gap up at Thursday's open as institutional investors recalibrate their models to reflect the improved cash flow generation. The main risk is that ongoing supply-chain issues highlighted by management could cap upside momentum during regular trading hours.
ADBE
Adobe is officially scheduled to release its highly anticipated Q3 2026 earnings report after the market closes on September 10. Anticipation is heavily clouded by a recent unexpected CEO succession announcement, which previously sent shares tumbling. Options markets are pricing in a substantial 7.2% move upon release. This high degree of anxiety and defensive positioning is expected to drive a gap down at Thursday's open as investors actively de-risk their portfolios ahead of the print. The downside gap reflects cautious pre-positioning rather than an observed fundamental failure.
CPRT
Copart is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings after the closing bell on September 10. Analysts anticipate strong results, with revenue expected to hit $1.14 billion. The company has demonstrated exceptional operational efficiency and strong free cash flow generation. Anticipatory buying ahead of the report should create a positive gap at the open as momentum traders and institutions position for an earnings beat. The primary emotional continuation risk is that the stock's relatively high valuation could prompt rapid profit-taking if the actual earnings release fails to deliver an immaculate quarter.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | COO, AVAV, SKIL, M, DBI | -1.97% | 80% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | AVAV, COO, ORCL, ADBE, CAL | -0.04% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | COO, AEO, NAVN, AVAV, CHWY | +0.33% | 60% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | ASO, NET, COO, NAVN, AVAV | +1.38% | 60% |
| Claude Opus 5 | AVAV, NAVN, AEO, M, COO | -0.08% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Gemini 1.5 Pro's picks for 2026-09-10.
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