Event Gaps: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-09-10
Gemini 3 Pro picked ASO, NET, COO, NAVN, AVAV for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +1.38%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 3 Pro |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v7 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-09 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-10 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +1.38% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.03% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASO | up | +8.13% | +8.13% | 82% | +8.15% | Yes |
| 2 | NET | up | -0.70% | -0.70% | 78% | -0.67% | No |
| 3 | COO | down | +4.41% | +4.41% | 85% | +4.44% | Yes |
| 4 | NAVN | down | -5.28% | -5.28% | 76% | -5.26% | No |
| 5 | AVAV | up | +0.20% | +0.20% | 72% | +0.23% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equities fell for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, September 9, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% to 7,636.36 and the Dow off 0.8% to 52,380.66. Crude oil topped $100/bbl on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, and the 10-year Treasury yield moved higher toward 4.84%. After-hours trading saw sharp moves on earnings and corporate announcements: ASO surged 14%, NET climbed 10.5%, COO dropped 18%, AEO fell 12%, NAVN slid 17%, and AVAV rose 3-4%. Thursday's session features Oracle and Adobe earnings after the close and Macy's before the open.
Why each pick
ASO
Thesis: Academy Sports and Outdoors surged 14.40% in after-hours trading to $51.15 following a Q2 earnings beat and raised full-year guidance. Adjusted EPS of $2.31 beat the $2.08 consensus, and the company lifted its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $6.50-$6.90 from $6.40-$6.80. The stock had closed the regular session at $44.70 before the after-hours spike. The magnitude of the after-hours move and the clean beat-and-raise setup suggest strong continuation buying at Thursday's open. Risks: The stock has already moved sharply higher in extended trading, and some profit-taking at the open is possible. Consumer discretionary retail remains sensitive to macro headwinds, including rising gas prices and pressure on lower-income households.
NET
Thesis: Cloudflare closed the regular session up 10.57% at $314.35, leading the day's gainers among 111 priority names, driven by AI partnership announcements with OpenAI and SpaceX. The stock continued its momentum in after-hours trading, though it settled slightly lower at $313.59. The strength reflects growing investor conviction in Cloudflare's positioning as a key beneficiary of AI infrastructure and security demand. The stock closed above its previous resistance level, and the sector-wide rotation into AI infrastructure names supports further upside. Risks: The stock has rallied sharply over multiple sessions, and president Michelle Zatlyn's $27.6 million stock sale reported on September 9 could raise insider-selling concerns. Any broad technology pullback could reverse the gains.
COO
Thesis: Cooper Companies dropped 18% in after-hours trading following an official announcement that its board unanimously voted to retain its CooperSurgical unit rather than sell it, concluding a strategic review process active since December 2025. The decision was accompanied by downbeat Q4 and full-year guidance, with Q4 EPS projected at $1.05-$1.09 versus $1.19 consensus and full-year revenue expected at $4.229-$4.252 billion versus $4.31 billion expected. The stock had already declined 6.22% in the regular session to close at $63.48. The combination of a failed strategic catalyst and weak guidance creates a high-conviction gap-down scenario. Risks: The magnitude of the after-hours decline may invite bargain-hunting at the open, potentially limiting the gap. However, the fundamental disappointment is substantial.
NAVN
Thesis: Navan beat Q2 estimates on both lines, reporting adjusted EPS of $0.05 on revenue of $232.8 million, above forecasts for $0.04 and $220.5 million. Revenue rose 35% year-over-year, and the company raised full-year guidance. Despite the beat-and-raise, the stock fell sharply 17.45% in after-hours trading to $21.37 after closing the regular session at $25.89. The negative reaction suggests investors were looking for a larger beat or were disappointed by the quality of growth. The substantial after-hours decline points to a gap-down open on Thursday. Risks: The stock could rebound if investors refocus on the strong revenue growth and raised guidance. However, the market's negative initial reaction is a powerful signal for the open.
AVAV
Thesis: AeroVironment reported fiscal Q1 results after the close on September 9 that exceeded analyst expectations, with adjusted EPS of $0.59 beating the $0.30 consensus by $0.29, and record revenue of $480.5 million. The defense contractor reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $2.125-$2.225 billion and reported a record funded backlog of $1.5 billion, up 37% year-over-year. Shares rose over 4% in after-hours trading to around $144.22 after declining 5.36% in the regular session to $140.80. The strong beat and record backlog support a gap-up open. Risks: The stock's after-hours move was more modest than other movers, and defense stocks can be sensitive to geopolitical developments. The reaffirmed guidance midpoint fell slightly below consensus, which could temper upside.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | COO, AVAV, SKIL, M, DBI | -1.97% | 80% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | AVAV, COO, ORCL, ADBE, CAL | -0.04% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | COO, IQV, BAX, ADBE, CPRT | +0.18% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | COO, AEO, NAVN, AVAV, CHWY | +0.33% | 60% |
| Claude Opus 5 | AVAV, NAVN, AEO, M, COO | -0.08% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-09-10.
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