Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-10
Muse Spark 1.1 picked AVAV, COO, ORCL, ADBE, CAL for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -0.04%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v7 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-09 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-10 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -0.04% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.03% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AVAV | up | +0.20% | +0.20% | 70% | +0.23% | Yes |
| 2 | COO | up | +4.41% | +4.41% | 68% | +4.44% | Yes |
| 3 | ORCL | up | -3.43% | -3.43% | 75% | -3.41% | No |
| 4 | ADBE | up | -1.18% | -1.18% | 70% | -1.16% | No |
| 5 | CAL | down | -0.34% | -0.34% | 66% | -0.31% | No |
The model's market view
Source Sep 9 close ends quiet summer. Target Sep 10 is heavy earnings day: Q1 FY27 AVAV defense tech after close Sep 9, Q3 COO medical devices after close Sep 9, Q2 CAL footwear before open Sep 9 already released, plus anticipation for Sep 10 after close mega caps ORCL Q1 FY27 and ADBE Q3 FY26 officially scheduled. SPY $765.88 Sep 8 baseline. Expect sharp gaps for AVAV and COO on actual prints, and anticipatory gaps up for ORCL and ADBE as AI cloud optimism builds into session, with CAL gapping down on weak footwear guide. Equal-weight LONG portfolio targets open-to-close continuation after overnight gaps vs SPY.
Why each pick
AVAV
Scheduled after close Sep 9 Q1 FY27, consensus $0.30 EPS $459.9M revenue muted growth. Defense drone demand and Ukraine contracts could surprise. Occurrence is scheduled, not yet observed as of prediction time early Sep 10. Anticipation of beat could drive gap up at Sep 10 open if preliminary leak. Substantive catalyst: DoD spending. Expect continuation open-to-close long as beat sustains, but emotional fade risk if guide soft.
COO
Scheduled after close Sep 9 Q3 FY26, Street $1.11 EPS $1.1B revenue minimal YoY growth. Medical instruments defensive, beat would support gap up. Event scheduled and has occurred after Sep 9 close by target open. Substantive earnings. Expect gap up 2.5% and open-to-close continuation if margins improve, vs SPY.
ORCL
Officially scheduled Sep 10 after close Q1 FY27, announced Sep 2 PRNewswire. Consensus $1.74 EPS $19.13B revenue, prior Q beat $2.11 vs $1.96, RPO $638B and OCI growth 58-64% guide. Event has not yet occurred at target open, but anticipation affects Sep 10 session now as traders front-run. Substantive catalyst: cloud backlog. Expect gap up 2% at Sep 10 open on pre-earnings momentum vs SPY, with open-to-close continuation if positioning stays long. Risk emotional reversal if expectations too high.
ADBE
Officially scheduled Sep 10 after close Q3 FY26, announced Aug 31 Business Wire, call 2-3pm PT. Consensus around $4.7 EPS. AI monetization of Firefly and Document Cloud key. Event scheduled future but anticipation lifts Sep 10 session. Substantive software earnings. Expect gap up 1.8% at open on sympathy with ORCL cloud strength. Open-to-close long continuation if guidance steady. Risk: creative cloud churn concerns could cause fade.
CAL
Occurred event Sep 9 before open: Q2 2026 results moved earlier from Sep 10 to Sep 9, consensus $0.37 EPS $702M revenue. Footwear retail weak after LULU -17% guide cut. CAL reported before open Sep 9, so by Sep 9 close results known, but gap diagnostic for Sep 10 reflects delayed reaction or second-day continuation. Expect gap down 3% at Sep 10 open if sales miss and guide low single digits, but open-to-close LONG bounce as oversold bargain hunting vs SPY. Event occurred, substantive retail.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | COO, AVAV, SKIL, M, DBI | -1.97% | 80% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | COO, IQV, BAX, ADBE, CPRT | +0.18% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | COO, AEO, NAVN, AVAV, CHWY | +0.33% | 60% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | ASO, NET, COO, NAVN, AVAV | +1.38% | 60% |
| Claude Opus 5 | AVAV, NAVN, AEO, M, COO | -0.08% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-10.
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