Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-10-29
Perplexity picked AMZN, INTC, CAT, DASH, LLY for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +9.13%. Picks with positive alpha: 100%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Perplexity |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-29 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-30 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +9.13% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 100% |
| Benchmark return | -1.23% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMZN | -3.51% | +3.51% | 58% | +4.74% | Yes | |
| 2 | INTC | -28.85% | +28.85% | 55% | +30.08% | Yes | |
| 3 | CAT | -2.71% | +2.71% | 62% | +3.94% | Yes | |
| 4 | DASH | +1.64% | +1.64% | 60% | +2.86% | Yes | |
| 5 | LLY | +2.77% | +2.77% | 56% | +4.00% | Yes |
The model's market view
The one-session outlook is event-driven and dispersion-heavy: Amazon and Intel report after Thursday's close, while Eli Lilly, Caterpillar, and DoorDash have already released material results or deal news. Alphabet's revenue miss and negative free cash flow have revived scrutiny of AI capital spending, creating downside sensitivity for Amazon and Intel even where company-specific results may be solid. I favor continued downside continuation in Caterpillar after its sharp earnings-driven gap lower, upside continuation in DoorDash after its earnings beat and Instacart acquisition, and a modest upside follow-through in Eli Lilly after its beat; Amazon and Intel are binary earnings positions with wide two-sided risk.
Why each pick
AMZN
Amazon is the highest-conviction binary catalyst: its Q3 2026 results are officially scheduled for after Thursday's close, with investors focused on AWS growth, AI capacity constraints, margins, and free cash flow. The verified pre-event context is cautious: Alphabet's late-Wednesday report showed negative free cash flow of $9.07 billion and sent its shares down about 10-11%, pressuring AI-infrastructure names and Nasdaq futures; Amazon's premarket quote was $250.83, down 1.48% from the $253.10 prior close. The latest completed daily close was $254.60 on 2026-10-28; the forecast is made from the most recent verifiable premarket quote, not the prior close. I expect a modest downward move into and after the report because the market is now demanding cash-flow proof for AI spending, but this is an uncertain expectation rather than an observed post-earnings outcome; a strong AWS print or disciplined capex commentary could invalidate it quickly. Strongest counter-evidence: Microsoft's Azure revenue grew 48% and its shares rose, showing that cloud strength can still be rewarded. Verified price level: a break below the premarket low near $250 would support the bearish continuation; recovery above $254.60 would weaken it. Historical five-session OHLC, 20-session high/low, average share volume, and 20-day dollar volume could not be verified from the available sources, so those figures are null; the stock passes the stated price and market-cap screens based on the verified $254.60 close and $2.75 trillion market capitalization, but the $20 million dollar-volume floor could not be independently verified. Latest quote: $250.83 at 2026-10-29T05:14:00-04:00, premarket, from stockanalysis.com.
INTC
Intel reports Q3 2026 results after Thursday's close, making it a high-volatility, two-sided event. The stock closed at $95.53 on 2026-10-28, then traded at $92.43 in premarket, down 3.25%, as Alphabet's disappointing results and AI-capex concerns hit semiconductor sentiment; this is an observed pre-event reaction, not an earnings reaction. Consensus cited in pre-earnings coverage was EPS of $0.40, and options coverage suggested traders expected a sizable move, but the eventual result is unknown. I lean down because Intel enters the print after a major 2026 rally, carries high valuation risk, and the sector narrative has turned toward demanding returns on AI investment; however, the recent Classiq acquisition and Oracle collaboration are positive company-specific news that could support an upside surprise. Strongest counter-evidence: Intel rose 1.91% on Wednesday and had substantial trading interest, indicating buyers remained active before the report. Invalidation would be a post-earnings guide or foundry/data-center update that restores confidence in AI-related demand. Verified price level: $92.43 premarket is the near-term reference; a move below it after the report would confirm downside, while a reclaim of $95.53 would invalidate the bearish view. Five-session OHLC, 20-session range, average volume, and 20-day dollar volume were not verifiable from available sources and are null; market cap was verified at $501.96 billion, but the $20 million liquidity floor could not be independently verified. Latest quote: $92.43 at 2026-10-29T08:33:00-04:00, premarket, from stockanalysis.com.
CAT
Caterpillar reported Q3 2026 results before Thursday's open: adjusted EPS of $7.20 beat the $7.03 consensus and revenue of $20.7 billion was roughly in line, but the market focused on softer-than-hoped sales momentum, Q4 construction volume expected down modestly year over year, and about $2.2 billion of full-year tariff costs. The observed reaction is a severe gap down: the stock traded at $646.66 at 9:38 AM EDT, down 9.35% from the $713.38 prior close, with a session low of $631.62. This is a continuation setup rather than a rebound thesis: the gap broke far below the prior session and the early tape shows persistent selling, while management commentary about strong orders, record backlog, and data-center demand is the principal counter-evidence. I expect further downside over the remaining session as investors digest the guidance and as analysts revise estimates, though an oversold intraday bounce is possible. Invalidation would be a sustained recovery above the $670-680 area, which would suggest the initial gap is being aggressively bought. Five-session OHLC, 20-session high/low, average volume, and 20-day dollar volume could not be verified and are null; the verified $646.66 quote and $297.25 billion market cap satisfy the price and market-cap screens, while the dollar-volume floor could not be independently verified. Latest quote: $646.66 at 2026-10-29T09:38:00-04:00, live market-open quote, from stockanalysis.com.
DASH
DoorDash reported Q3 2026 results and simultaneously announced a definitive agreement to acquire Instacart for $65.00 per share, approximately $17 billion. The reported quarter beat expectations: EPS of $1.06 versus an $0.81 consensus, revenue of $4.616 billion versus $4.56 billion expected, with total orders up 28% and marketplace GOV up 36% year over year. The stock traded at $179.51 at 10:06 AM EDT, up 5.91% from the $169.49 prior close, after opening at $179.13; this is an observed reaction to the earnings-and-M&A package. I expect additional upside over the remaining session if investors continue to reward the strategic grocery expansion and the stated $500 million annual net-synergy target, although integration spending and a long expected closing timeline are risks. Strongest counter-evidence: the stock remains well below its 52-week high of $268.00, and antitrust or integration concerns could cap the move. Invalidation would be a reversal below the $172.23 session low, which would indicate the initial pop is being sold. Five-session OHLC, 20-session range, average volume, and 20-day dollar volume were not verifiable and are null; the verified $179.51 quote and $77.78 billion market cap satisfy price and market-cap screens, but the dollar-volume floor could not be independently verified. Latest quote: $179.51 at 2026-10-29T10:06:00-04:00, live market-open quote, from stockanalysis.com.
LLY
Eli Lilly reported Q3 2026 results before Thursday's open: adjusted EPS of $7.48 beat the $6.26 consensus and revenue of $24.4 billion exceeded the $22.61 billion expectation, according to CNBC's premarket coverage. Separately, Lilly announced positive head-to-head TRANSCEND-T2D-2 data for retatrutide versus injectable Ozempic, reporting greater A1C reduction and roughly double the weight loss. The stock traded at $1,311.50 after hours on 2026-10-28, up 1.80% from the $1,288.30 regular-session close, and CNBC reported shares about 4% higher premarket; the latest directly verified quote available in the source snapshot was the after-hours $1,311.50. I expect modest upside continuation as the earnings beat and retatrutide data reinforce the obesity/diabetes growth narrative, but much of the news may already be priced in after the stock approached its $1,321.21 52-week high. Strongest counter-evidence: the move is relatively small for the size of the beat, suggesting high expectations and potential profit-taking. Invalidation would be a reversal below the prior close of $1,288.30 during the regular session. Five-session OHLC, 20-session high/low, average volume, and 20-day dollar volume were not verifiable and are null; the verified $1,288.30 close and $1.15 trillion market cap satisfy price and market-cap screens, while the dollar-volume floor could not be independently verified. Latest quote: $1,311.50 at 2026-10-28T19:59:00-04:00, after hours, from stockanalysis.com; a fresher regular-session quote could not be verified at answering time.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | RBLX, AMZN, SBUX, SNDK, INTC | -3.33% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | GOOGL, MSFT, INTC, AMZN, SBUX | +7.08% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-10-29.
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