Event Gaps: Claude Sonnet 5.5's picks for 2026-10-29
Claude Sonnet 5.5 picked RBLX, AMZN, SBUX, SNDK, INTC for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -3.33%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Claude Sonnet 5.5 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-29 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-30 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -3.33% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -1.23% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RBLX | -18.97% | +18.97% | 55% | +20.20% | Yes | |
| 2 | AMZN | -3.51% | -3.51% | 52% | -2.28% | No | |
| 3 | SBUX | -1.74% | +1.74% | 48% | +2.96% | Yes | |
| 4 | SNDK | -11.12% | -11.12% | 45% | -9.89% | No | |
| 5 | INTC | -28.85% | -28.85% | 45% | -27.62% | No |
The model's market view
Tech sentiment is fragile this morning. Alphabet missed on EPS, ServiceNow and Fortinet gapped down on guidance, and Nasdaq futures were weak in pre-market trading, while Microsoft rose on strong cloud results. All five picks report after the close today (Oct 29), so the whole scored window contains the event and the gap should arrive at the start of the Oct 30 session. Directions are low-conviction calls on expectations versus reported results: names that rallied into the print and have a history of selling off (RBLX, SBUX) are leaned short, and names that sold off into the print (AMZN, SNDK, INTC) are leaned long. Quotes were taken between 10:18 and 10:21 ET, a few minutes after the 10:12 ET window start, so the move elapsed since the start of the window cannot be separated and is null.
Why each pick
RBLX
Thesis: Roblox reports Q3 after the close today and looks set to reverse part of a sharp run-up. The stock rose from 43.00 (Oct 1 close) to 54.27, about +26%, while the average analyst price target is 50.12, below the quote. Sources show three prior earnings reactions of about -15.5% (Oct 2025), about -18% (May 2026) and -26.9% (Jul 31, 2026), each driven by bookings and guidance. Facts: earnings are officially scheduled for Oct 29 after the close (about 4:05 PM ET per Earnings Whispers); consensus EPS is about -0.39 to -0.41 and revenue about 1.85B; an options-implied move of about +/-13.4% was published on Oct 6, so it is stale. Inference: the pre-print rally and recent target raises (BTIG, Wedbush, JPMorgan) leave less room for a positive surprise, and a short-seller report on safety and slowing growth is circulating. Strongest counter-evidence: Roth Capital says trends are improving and RBLX beat EPS in 7 of the last 8 quarters, so strong bookings could trigger a short squeeze (short interest 3.6% of shares). Price action: closes of 54.37, 54.47 and 53.28 on Oct 26 to 28; the Oct 28 bar hit a high of 56.08 but closed in the lower quarter of its range, a mild rejection near the 20-day high (56.08). Oct 28 volume of 7.54M was below the 20-day average. Invalidation: bookings or DAU guidance above expectations followed by trading above 56.08 (the 20-day high), or a reported-results gap higher on Oct 30. Anticipation: positioning ahead of the print may support the stock into the close. Daily bars (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted):
2026-10-22 O=52.65 H=54.05 L=52.57 C=53.96 V=7845994
2026-10-23 O=53.50 H=54.13 L=52.42 C=52.89 V=5609945
2026-10-26 O=52.75 H=54.47 L=51.45 C=54.37 V=6803955
2026-10-27 O=54.34 H=54.82 L=52.50 C=54.47 V=6829888
2026-10-28 O=54.49 H=56.08 L=52.36 C=53.28 V=7536167
return_5d_pct=1.39 (Oct 28 close 53.28 vs Oct 21 close 52.55)
high_20d=56.08 low_20d=41.81 avg_volume_20d=8722683 (mean of the 20 completed sessions Oct 1 to Oct 28)
history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rblx/history/ (S&P Global data, US Eastern session convention)
Intraday: latest_price=54.27 quote_time=2026-10-29T14:21:00Z (10:21 ET), source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rblx/statistics/, displayed as a real-time regular-session quote (delay not verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of about 10:20 ET: open=52.86 high_so_far=54.60 low_so_far=52.18 cumulative_volume=1450390; relative intraday volume cannot be established because no same-time baseline is available. Pre-event price path: climb from 43.00 to 54.27 since Oct 1. Observed event reaction: null because the event has not occurred. Elapsed-window move: null. Expected move after the current quote: about -9%, driven by the post-earnings gap. Market cap 38.72B and 20-day average dollar volume about 424.7M (computed as mean of close x volume over the 20 sessions; approximate) both pass the floors.
AMZN
Thesis: Amazon reports Q3 after the close today after falling about 3.3% this morning in a weak tech tape triggered by Alphabet's results. The reported facts: Microsoft's cloud results beat and Alphabet's EPS missed. Inference: Microsoft's strong cloud numbers are a positive read-across for AWS, and the stock now sits at the bottom of its 20-day range, which lowers the bar. Facts: earnings are officially scheduled for Oct 29 after the close; consensus EPS is about 1.96 to 2.01 and revenue about 202.2B; mean analyst target is 332.41 with 60 analysts and a Strong Buy consensus; one source cites a market-implied move of roughly 6% (older, may not apply to this print). Strongest counter-evidence: Alphabet's reaction shows that capex and AI spending worries can overwhelm top-line beats, and Amazon's trailing free cash flow is negative at about -11.6B against capex of about 173B. Price action: Oct 22 saw a gap-down bar (-4.57%) on 48.8M volume; Oct 26 to 28 recovered to 254.60 on near-average volume (34.9M vs 35.5M average); today's price of 246.12 is at the 20-day low (246.12). A close near this level would be a breakdown. Invalidation: AWS growth or capex guidance disappointing, with the price holding below the 20-day low of 246.12 after the event. Anticipation: the stock may stabilize ahead of the print if the sector selloff fades. Daily bars (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted):
2026-10-22 O=258.18 H=258.41 L=248.00 C=250.38 V=48814021
2026-10-23 O=248.85 H=250.01 L=246.45 C=248.00 V=25569043
2026-10-26 O=249.47 H=250.79 L=247.23 C=249.09 V=32696380
2026-10-27 O=250.43 H=254.68 L=248.71 C=253.10 V=34477821
2026-10-28 O=253.00 H=255.36 L=251.98 C=254.60 V=34915856
return_5d_pct=-2.96 (Oct 28 close 254.60 vs Oct 21 close 262.37)
high_20d=265.34 low_20d=246.12 avg_volume_20d=35510579 (mean of the 20 completed sessions Oct 1 to Oct 28)
history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/history/ (S&P Global data, US Eastern session convention)
Intraday: latest_price=246.12 quote_time=2026-10-29T14:21:00Z (10:21 ET), source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/statistics/, displayed as a real-time regular-session quote (delay not verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of about 10:20 ET: open=246.95 high_so_far=248.46 low_so_far=241.24 cumulative_volume=17448272; relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event price path: 254.60 close on Oct 28 after a recovery. Observed event reaction: null because the event has not occurred. Elapsed-window move: null. Expected move after the current quote: about +4% if AWS and guidance reassure. Market cap 2.66T and 20-day average dollar volume about 9.06B (computed from close x volume; approximate) both pass the floors.
SBUX
Thesis: Starbucks reports fiscal Q4 after the close today after a rally into the print, so the bar is high even though fundamentals have improved. Facts: the company raised its FY2026 EPS guidance twice (latest range 2.55 to 2.65), guided Q4 U.S. comparable sales of 6.5% or more, and posted 7.9% comps in Q3; consensus Q4 EPS is about 0.71 to 0.73 (whisper about 0.77) on revenue of about 9.23 to 9.25B. Earnings are officially scheduled for Oct 29 after the close. Stock rose from 90.75 (Oct 9 close) to 105.03, and the average analyst target is 109.93, only about 4.6% above the quote. Several brokers cut targets recently (BofA, Mizuho to 105, Citi to 104), and the forward P/E is about 35.7. Strongest counter-evidence: improving traffic-driven comps and two guidance raises mean a clean beat plus FY2027 guidance could extend the rally; Chipotle gained in pre-market trading after its results, which supports restaurant sentiment. Price action: five straight closes up from 100.80 to 103.20 through Oct 28, and today's quote of 105.03 is above the prior 20-day high of 104.45 (a breakout into the event), on below-average volume (Oct 28 volume 7.61M vs 9.38M average). Invalidation: Q4 U.S. comps clearly above 6.5% with FY2027 guidance above consensus, or a gap-up through 105.75 (today's partial-session high so far). Daily bars (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted):
2026-10-22 O=99.17 H=102.03 L=98.63 C=101.91 V=9593938
2026-10-23 O=101.38 H=102.20 L=100.43 C=100.80 V=5917989
2026-10-26 O=101.15 H=103.40 L=101.04 C=102.69 V=6333548
2026-10-27 O=102.52 H=103.14 L=101.37 C=103.04 V=5668414
2026-10-28 O=103.09 H=104.45 L=102.54 C=103.20 V=7606222
return_5d_pct=4.16 (Oct 28 close 103.20 vs Oct 21 close 99.08)
high_20d=104.45 low_20d=87.35 avg_volume_20d=9383207 (mean of the 20 completed sessions Oct 1 to Oct 28)
history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sbux/history/ (S&P Global data, US Eastern session convention)
Intraday: latest_price=105.03 quote_time=2026-10-29T14:21:00Z (10:21 ET), source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sbux/statistics/, displayed as a real-time regular-session quote (delay not verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of about 10:20 ET: open=105.13 high_so_far=105.75 low_so_far=104.75 cumulative_volume=1039414; relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event price path: 94.88 (Oct 1 close) to 103.20 (Oct 28 close). Observed event reaction: null because the event has not occurred. Elapsed-window move: null. Expected move after the current quote: about -3.5% as expectations are fully priced. Market cap 119.83B and 20-day average dollar volume about 901.2M (computed from close x volume; approximate) both pass the floors. Options-implied move for this print was not verified.
SNDK
Thesis: Sandisk reports fiscal Q1 2027 after the close today, with the stock about 24% below its Oct 1 high area and valuation compressed (forward P/E about 6.4). Facts: earnings are officially scheduled for Oct 29 after the close; consensus EPS is about 45 to 46.4 and revenue about 10.64 to 10.7B, against company guidance of 44 to 46 EPS and 10.3 to 10.8B revenue; the company reported EPS beats of 17.6% to 80.8% over the last four quarters and signed multi-year supply agreements worth about 93.9B. The average analyst target is 2,143.83, but Cantor cut its target to 2,200 from 2,900 on Oct 26. Options after the last report implied about 14% to 16% and the stock then fell about 6.4% (about -12% after hours) despite a beat, so the market has punished high expectations before. Strongest counter-evidence: that Aug 5 selloff on guidance, memory stocks falling in pre-market trading today after yesterday's rally, and the stock having dropped from 1,787.69 (Oct 1 close) to 1,376.60. Price action: Oct 28 closed +7.66% at 1,404.77 near the top of its range on 9.26M volume (1.12x the 20-day average), and today's quote is about -2% from that close; the stock is in the lower half of its 20-day range (1,228.89 to 1,802.00). Invalidation: lower-than-guided Q2 revenue or margin guidance, or NAND pricing commentary turning negative; a close below 1,228.89 (20-day low) on Oct 30 would also contradict the thesis. Daily bars (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted):
2026-10-22 O=1317.26 H=1355.00 L=1244.60 C=1260.93 V=10414775
2026-10-23 O=1271.62 H=1299.99 L=1228.89 C=1238.03 V=7923529
2026-10-26 O=1251.88 H=1287.84 L=1229.00 C=1255.58 V=6713868
2026-10-27 O=1267.90 H=1315.98 L=1259.00 C=1304.84 V=7061906
2026-10-28 O=1356.60 H=1408.45 L=1343.85 C=1404.77 V=9261242
return_5d_pct=1.93 (Oct 28 close 1404.77 vs Oct 21 close 1378.22)
high_20d=1802.00 low_20d=1228.89 avg_volume_20d=8246219 (mean of the 20 completed sessions Oct 1 to Oct 28)
history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sndk/history/ (S&P Global data, US Eastern session convention)
Intraday: latest_price=1376.60 quote_time=2026-10-29T14:21:00Z (10:21 ET), source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sndk/statistics/, displayed as a real-time regular-session quote (delay not verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of about 10:20 ET: open=1381.50 high_so_far=1385.80 low_so_far=1347.70 cumulative_volume=1703725; relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event price path: 1,787.69 (Oct 1) to 1,404.77 (Oct 28). Observed event reaction: null because the event has not occurred. Elapsed-window move: null. Expected move after the current quote: about +6%, low confidence because the options-implied move is large (about 14% to 16% last quarter) and direction is close to a coin flip. Market cap 201.18B and 20-day average dollar volume about 12.10B (computed from close x volume; approximate) both pass the floors.
INTC
Thesis: Intel reports Q3 after the close today (call at 5 PM ET) after a 35% drawdown from its June high of 142.35, with the options market pricing a move of about 9%. Facts: earnings are officially scheduled for Oct 29 after the close; consensus is adjusted EPS of about 0.40 on revenue of about 16.49B (+21% YoY); New Street upgraded the stock to Buy citing CPU scarcity; Intel announced the Classiq quantum acquisition (about 2.3B, reported by Bloomberg); the average analyst target is 117.71, about 26% above the quote. Investors are watching for a major 14A foundry customer commitment. Strongest counter-evidence: the stock is up about 123% over 52 weeks, trailing GAAP results are still negative, free cash flow is thin (about 2.8B), and chip stocks fell in pre-market trading today, so any missing customer news could trigger another leg down; the stock fell 8% on Oct 22 on heavy volume. Price action: three straight up closes (90.47, 93.74, 95.53) from Oct 26 to Oct 28 on declining volume (Oct 28 volume 82.6M vs 96.8M average), with today's quote of 93.19 down about 2.5%, inside the 20-day range (84.65 to 126.00). Invalidation: guidance or foundry customer commentary that disappoints, with a decline through 84.65 (the 20-day low) in the Oct 30 session. Daily bars (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted):
2026-10-22 O=87.92 H=89.19 L=84.65 C=85.49 V=134128080
2026-10-23 O=85.92 H=87.87 L=84.74 C=86.96 V=72093680
2026-10-26 O=87.94 H=92.09 L=86.46 C=90.47 V=98744158
2026-10-27 O=92.47 H=94.98 L=91.86 C=93.74 V=90523294
2026-10-28 O=95.09 H=95.68 L=93.00 C=95.53 V=82592443
return_5d_pct=2.76 (Oct 28 close 95.53 vs Oct 21 close 92.96)
high_20d=126.00 low_20d=84.65 avg_volume_20d=96840084 (mean of the 20 completed sessions Oct 1 to Oct 28)
history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/intc/history/ (S&P Global data, US Eastern session convention)
Intraday: latest_price=93.19 quote_time=2026-10-29T14:21:00Z (10:21 ET), source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/intc/statistics/, displayed as a real-time regular-session quote (delay not verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of about 10:18 ET: open=92.97 high_so_far=93.48 low_so_far=91.55 cumulative_volume=18560251; relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event price path: 120.00 (Oct 1) to 95.53 (Oct 28). Observed event reaction: null because the event has not occurred. Elapsed-window move: null. Expected move after the current quote: about +4%, low confidence given the roughly 9% implied move and the near-even odds. Market cap 489.88B and 20-day average dollar volume about 9.69B (computed from close x volume; approximate) both pass the floors.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | AMZN, INTC, CAT, DASH, LLY | +9.13% | 100% |
| DeepSeek | GOOGL, MSFT, INTC, AMZN, SBUX | +7.08% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Claude Sonnet 5.5's picks for 2026-10-29.
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