Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-29
DeepSeek picked GOOGL, MSFT, INTC, AMZN, SBUX for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +7.08%. Picks with positive alpha: 80%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-29 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-30 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +7.08% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 80% |
| Benchmark return | -1.23% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOOGL | -1.86% | +1.86% | 66% | +3.09% | Yes | |
| 2 | MSFT | -0.32% | +0.32% | 63% | +1.55% | Yes | |
| 3 | INTC | -28.85% | +28.85% | 60% | +30.08% | Yes | |
| 4 | AMZN | -3.51% | -3.51% | 58% | -2.28% | No | |
| 5 | SBUX | -1.74% | +1.74% | 55% | +2.96% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equities enter the Oct 29 session with an AI-capex bifurcation: Alphabet's Q3 miss and negative free cash flow are pressuring megacap technology, Microsoft's beat is being sold, and Amazon, Intel and Starbucks report after the close. I favour event-driven shorts in already-disappointing or crowded names, plus one upside catalyst where options positioning and analyst expectations remain constructive, while keeping the portfolio net short into a binary after-hours earnings cluster.
Why each pick
GOOGL
Daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-22 O330.46 H331.43 L322.00 C324.22 V27,748,100; 2026-10-23 O321.15 H324.53 L320.18 C320.21 V17,569,600; 2026-10-26 O320.89 H321.48 L316.60 C316.80 V23,991,800; 2026-10-27 O317.00 H323.88 L316.86 C320.58 V28,633,100; 2026-10-28 O323.77 H326.41 L322.66 C324.89 V60,294,600. return_5d_pct=-2.95; high_20d=359.40; low_20d=316.60; avg_volume_20d=25,444,620. Latest_price=284.58; quote_time=null (Yahoo history shows the live partial 2026-10-29 line but does not expose a precise timestamp, so freshness cannot be verified); source=https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/; delayed regular-session intraday quote. Pre-event path drifted from 324.22 on Oct 22 to 324.89 on Oct 28. Observed reaction: opened 286.77, high 288.20, low 280.36, now 284.58, about -12.4% from the 324.89 close; partial volume 45.5M versus 25.4M full-day 20d average, but a same-time-of-day volume baseline is unavailable, so relative intraday volume cannot be established. The catalyst is verified: Q3 revenue $127.58B missed $128.20B, EPS $2.12 missed $3.02, free cash flow was -$9.07B, and Citizens downgraded the stock. This is a fundamental change, not only sentiment. Strongest counter-evidence: Google Cloud revenue more than doubled and the stock is already deeply oversold, so a relief bounce is plausible. Invalidation: a close above $292.50 or reclaim of $300 would negate the bearish continuation thesis. I forecast the remaining move down 4%.
MSFT
Daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-22 O533.14 H533.60 L520.30 C521.08 V21,266,600; 2026-10-23 O517.75 H525.77 L515.70 C524.51 V13,671,500; 2026-10-26 O527.40 H533.25 L521.69 C532.60 V19,021,000; 2026-10-27 O532.35 H534.70 L528.33 C531.33 V19,532,300; 2026-10-28 O531.82 H535.00 L526.14 C531.01 V27,681,000. return_5d_pct=-0.36; high_20d=551.15; low_20d=512.17; avg_volume_20d=20,097,875. Latest_price=525.33; quote_time=2026-10-29T10:15:18-04:00; source=https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/; live regular-session quote. Pre-event path rose from 521.08 on Oct 22 to 531.01 on Oct 28. Observed reaction: opened 540.21, high 540.97, low 523.25, now 525.33, below the prior close and below the open; the after-hours gain has fully reversed. Partial volume 12.7M versus 20.1M full-day 20d average, but relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time baseline. Already observed reaction is -1.07% from the prior close; remaining forecast is down 3%. Strongest counter-evidence: revenue beat, EPS beat and Azure growth of 48% are strong fundamentals, and the stock is only modestly lower. Invalidation: reclaiming 535 and holding above 540 would negate the failed-gap-up thesis.
INTC
Daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-22 O87.92 H89.19 L84.65 C85.49 V134,128,100; 2026-10-23 O85.92 H87.87 L84.74 C86.96 V72,093,700; 2026-10-26 O87.94 H92.09 L86.46 C90.47 V98,744,200; 2026-10-27 O92.47 H94.98 L91.86 C93.74 V90,523,300; 2026-10-28 O95.09 H95.68 L93.00 C95.53 V81,862,000. return_5d_pct=2.76; high_20d=126.00; low_20d=84.65; avg_volume_20d=96,803,565. Latest_price=92.65; quote_time=2026-10-29T10:15:31-04:00; source=https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/; live regular-session quote. Pre-event path rallied from 85.49 on Oct 22 to 95.53 on Oct 28, a five-session gain of about 11.7%. Observed reaction before the event: gapped down to 93.00, low 91.55, now 92.65, about -3.0% from the prior close. Event is after today's close, so no post-earnings reaction has occurred. Partial volume 18.3M versus 96.8M full-day 20d average, but same-time volume cannot be established. Forecast is down 5.5% after the print on sell-the-news risk: INTC is up over 150% year-to-date, down about 20% over the past month, Bernstein and Wedbush rate it Hold, and options imply about a 9.4% move. Strongest counter-evidence: server demand is strong and Wedbush expects a Q3 beat. Invalidation: reclaiming 95.50 or Q4 guidance above $17.5B revenue and $0.49 EPS would negate the bearish thesis.
AMZN
Daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-22 O258.18 H258.41 L248.00 C250.38 V48,814,000; 2026-10-23 O248.85 H250.01 L246.45 C248.00 V25,569,000; 2026-10-26 O249.47 H250.79 L247.23 C249.09 V32,696,400; 2026-10-27 O250.43 H254.68 L248.71 C253.10 V34,477,800; 2026-10-28 O253.00 H255.36 L251.98 C254.60 V34,594,500. return_5d_pct=-2.96; high_20d=265.34; low_20d=246.12; avg_volume_20d=35,494,500. Latest_price=245.60; quote_time=2026-10-29T10:15:55-04:00; source=https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/; live regular-session quote. Pre-event path was range-bound from 250.38 on Oct 22 to 254.60 on Oct 28. Observed pre-event reaction today: opened 246.91, low 241.24, now 245.60, down 3.53% amid the tech selloff. The after-close earnings event has not occurred, so no post-event reaction is observed. Partial volume 17.1M versus 35.5M full-day 20d average; relative intraday volume cannot be established. Forecast is up 4% from the current quote over the remaining window, capturing the earnings reaction: options show a call bias, the analyst consensus is Strong Buy, Mizuho expects AWS growth to offset retail weakness, and the stock has already de-risked 3.5% today. Strongest counter-evidence: price is below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and Alphabet's negative free-cash-flow reaction shows investors are punishing AI capex. Invalidation: a close below 241.24 or guidance with capex above $230B and AWS deceleration would negate the upside thesis.
SBUX
Daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-22 O99.17 H102.03 L98.63 C101.91 V9,589,700; 2026-10-23 O101.38 H102.20 L100.43 C100.80 V5,917,900; 2026-10-26 O101.15 H103.40 L101.04 C102.69 V6,332,300; 2026-10-27 O102.52 H103.14 L101.37 C103.04 V5,667,300; 2026-10-28 O103.09 H104.45 L102.54 C103.20 V7,601,600. return_5d_pct=4.16; high_20d=104.45; low_20d=87.35; avg_volume_20d=9,381,195. Latest_price=105.13; quote_time=2026-10-29T10:15:18-04:00; source=https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBUX/; live regular-session quote. Pre-event path rose from 101.91 on Oct 22 to 103.20 on Oct 28. Observed pre-event reaction today: opened 105.13, high 105.74, low 104.75, now 105.13, up 1.87% and near the 52-week high of 110.51. The after-close earnings event has not occurred, so no post-event reaction is observed. Partial volume 0.997M versus 9.38M full-day 20d average; relative intraday volume cannot be established. Forecast is down 3% on sell-the-news risk: the stock has rallied about 35% from its 52-week low, is priced for perfection, options imply about a 4.6% move, and post-earnings announcement drift after the last report was negative. Strongest counter-evidence: Starbucks has beaten and raised guidance, and Morgan Stanley is constructive on margin recovery. Invalidation: holding above 105.74 and breaking 110.51 after earnings would negate the bearish thesis.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | AMZN, INTC, CAT, DASH, LLY | +9.13% | 100% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | RBLX, AMZN, SBUX, SNDK, INTC | -3.33% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-29.
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