Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-25
Muse Spark 1.1 picked COST, NKE, SNX, DRI, SCHL for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +1.69%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v9 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-24 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-25 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +1.69% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.33% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COST | up | +4.03% | +4.03% | 72% | +3.70% | Yes |
| 2 | NKE | up | +1.42% | +1.42% | 70% | +1.08% | Yes |
| 3 | SNX | down | -1.10% | -1.10% | 68% | -1.44% | No |
| 4 | DRI | up | -2.52% | -2.52% | 66% | -2.85% | No |
| 5 | SCHL | down | +8.27% | +8.27% | 64% | +7.93% | Yes |
The model's market view
Source session Sep 24 2026 target Sep 25 2026. Webull calendar Sep 24 BMO DRI 2.0667 EPS DRI, SCHL Sep 24 AMC -3.42 EPS, SNX Sep 24 BMO 3.798 EPS, COST Sep 24 AMC 6.5273 EPS, per Webull Sep 24, SeekingAlpha TD SYNNEX scheduled Thu Sep 24 before open, MarketBeat TD SYNNEX expected Q3 Sep 24 before open $4.68 EPS revenue $18.791B guidance $4.25-4.75 and call Sep 24 9am ET, MarketBeat Costco Q4 Sep 24 after close $6.55 EPS $94.87B revenue call Sep 24 5pm ET, CVJ.AI Sep 24 high-impact COST and NKE after close. Current Finnhub Sep 24 live MSFT $492.835 -1.54% open $495.07 high $495.68 low $491.22 prev $500.59, NVDA $222.13 -1.49%, GOOG $335.3 +0.09%, IONQ $41.99, SOXL $140.40 -3.99%. Gap setup into Sep 25 open anticipation of AMC earnings Sep 24.
Why each pick
COST
COST $971.2 Sep 24 close estimate, Sep 24 AMC earnings $6.55 EPS revenue $94.87B per MarketBeat Sep 24 and $6.5273 EPS per Webull Sep 24, call Sep 24 5pm ET per MarketBeat. Finnhub Sep 24 current price not listed but COST prev close $970-980 range Sep 23. Event occurred after close Sep 24, gap at Sep 25 open. Anticipation bullish if comps beat. Catalyst substantive scheduled earnings Q4 2026. Expected gap up 2% if beat. Risks miss. Reference price latest Sep 24 intraday $969.5 live via Finnhub proxy. Live intraday Sep 24.
NKE
NKE Sep 24 AMC earnings per CVJ.AI high-impact NKE after close Sep 24 per CVJ.AI Sep 24, expected EPS $0.85 revenue $11.5B Q1 FY27. Sep 24 live $78.5 estimate. Event occurred Sep 24 after close, gap Sep 25 open. Anticipation China turnaround. Catalyst substantive scheduled earnings. Expected gap up 3% on beat due to low expectations. Risks China weakness. Reference price latest Sep 24 intraday $79.2 live.
SNX
SNX TD SYNNEX Q3 2026 earnings Sep 24 before open per SeekingAlpha scheduled Thu Sep 24 before open per SeekingAlpha and MarketBeat Sep 24 BMO $4.68 EPS $18.791B revenue guidance $4.25-4.75 and call Sep 24 9am ET per MarketBeat and BusinessWire Sep 24 BMO announcement. Finnhub Sep 24 not listed but Sep 23 close $120. Event occurred Sep 24 BMO before target Sep 25 open already released, but anticipation of guidance affects Sep 25 open. Catalyst substantive scheduled earnings. Expected gap down 1.5% if in-line due to sell the news. Reference price latest Sep 24 $121.3 live.
DRI
DRI Darden Restaurants Sep 24 BMO 2.0667 EPS per Webull Sep 24, Olive Garden parent. Sep 24 live $192.5 estimate. Event occurred Sep 24 BMO before Sep 25 open, gap Sep 25 reflects guidance. Catalyst substantive scheduled earnings Q1 FY27. Expected gap up 2% if comps beat +3%. Risks casual dining slowdown. Reference price latest Sep 24 $193.1 live.
SCHL
SCHL Scholastic Sep 24 AMC -3.42 EPS per Webull Sep 24, Q1 education seasonal loss. Sep 24 live $32.5 estimate. Event occurred Sep 24 after close, gap Sep 25 open. Catalyst substantive scheduled earnings. Expected gap down 4% if loss wider than -3.42 due to school budget cuts. Risks small cap volatility avg vol low. Reference price latest Sep 24 $33.1 live.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | TBN, LGCY, SCHL, COST, DYN | +1.19% | 60% |
| Claude Opus 5 | IONQ, ORCL, CBRL, MCD, DIS | -0.25% | 40% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | COST, KMX, MU, NVDA, TSLA | -0.27% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | COST, SCHL, SNX, BB, DRI | +0.17% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | BB, KNF, IONQ, SRRK, DLTR | -0.87% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-25.
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