Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-09-25
DeepSeek picked BB, KNF, IONQ, SRRK, DLTR for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -0.87%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v9 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-24 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-25 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -0.87% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.33% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BB | up | -6.17% | -6.17% | 78% | -6.51% | No |
| 2 | KNF | up | +2.21% | +2.21% | 75% | +1.88% | Yes |
| 3 | IONQ | down | +1.74% | +1.74% | 72% | +1.41% | Yes |
| 4 | SRRK | up | -1.14% | -1.14% | 70% | -1.47% | No |
| 5 | DLTR | up | +0.67% | +0.67% | 65% | +0.34% | Yes |
The model's market view
The September 25 session is shaping up to be event-driven, with several distinct catalysts creating gap potential at the open. Earnings beats (BlackBerry), activist campaigns (Knife River), and strategic AI partnerships (IonQ) are producing premarket moves that suggest directional open gaps. The broader market faces macro headwinds from elevated Treasury yields, but company-specific news is overwhelming the macro backdrop for the names below. The key is to distinguish between substantive catalysts that justify sustained moves and speculative ones that may fade after the open.
Why each pick
BB
BlackBerry reported Q2 FY2027 results on September 24 before the open, with revenue of $163.3 million (up 26% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $0.07, both significantly beating analyst expectations. The company raised its full-year FY2027 revenue guidance to $616-636 million from a prior range of $594-621 million, and lifted adjusted EBITDA guidance to $141-158 million. The QNX automotive software unit posted a record quarter, and operating cash flow improved by $25.9 million year-over-year to $29.3 million. The stock was up 6% in premarket trading at $8.88 shortly after the release. The catalyst is substantive: the beat-and-raise pattern, particularly the second guidance increase this year, signals genuine operational momentum. The main risk is that the stock had already rallied 121% year-to-date into the print, and some profit-taking may emerge once the initial premarket enthusiasm fades. A second risk is that the broader tech sell-off could overwhelm the company-specific catalyst. Reference price is the September 23 regular-session close of $8.38, sourced from eToro, as the most recent verifiable quote available.
KNF
Knife River surged 5% in premarket trading on September 24 after The Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Starboard Value has taken a significant stake in the construction materials company and is pushing management to improve margins or explore a sale. The catalyst is substantive: Starboard is a well-known activist with a track record of successful campaigns, and the margin gap between Knife River's roughly 15% EBITDA margin and peers like Vulcan Materials at approximately 30% represents a clear value-creation opportunity. The stock fell 7.86% in the prior session to close at $51.43 after the company's investor presentation detailed headwinds including delayed jobs and higher fuel costs, creating an oversold setup that the activist news is now reversing. Risks include the possibility that Starboard's campaign faces resistance from management, the narrow buyer universe for a construction-materials company of this size, and the fact that the stock gapped up sharply in the prior session's after-hours, which may limit the opening gap. Reference price is the September 23 regular-session close of $51.43, sourced from eToro, the most recent verifiable quote.
IONQ
IonQ announced on September 23 that its Superion 256 quantum computer will be the first quantum processor installed at Nvidia's Accelerated Quantum Research Center (NVAQC), directly linked to an Nvidia GB200 NVL72 system. This follows the September 22 announcement of the industry's first end-to-end real-time quantum error-correction decoder. The two catalysts together drove the stock up 4.42% on September 23 to close at $42.54. However, the stock is indicated down approximately 3% in premarket trading on September 24, suggesting that some of the initial enthusiasm has faded and profit-taking has begun. I am forecasting a gap down because the stock is trading below its September 23 close in premarket, and the prior day's gains were partly driven by short covering and options speculation. The catalyst is substantive long-term but may not sustain a second consecutive day of gains. Risks include the stock's extreme volatility (5-year beta of 3.30), its rich valuation at approximately 38x sales, and the possibility that the broader tech sell-off deepens. Reference price is the September 23 regular-session close of $42.54, sourced from Yahoo Finance Taiwan, the most recent verifiable quote.
SRRK
Scholar Rock received FDA approval for ISEMBYLD (apitegromab-mstn) on September 11, 2026, for the treatment of spinal muscular atrophy in adults and children aged 2 and older. The stock closed at $49.85 on September 23, down 2.62%, and is trading roughly flat in premarket at $49.89. The catalyst is substantive and binary: ISEMBYLD is the first and only muscle-targeted treatment for SMA, and analysts project it as a potential blockbuster. JPMorgan raised its price target to $70 from $63 following the approval. However, the stock has not sustained a rally above $52 since the approval, suggesting that the news is largely priced in. I am forecasting a modest gap up because the premarket indication is marginally positive and the approval provides a fundamental floor. Risks include the binary nature of the commercial launch, the possibility that reimbursement or adoption is slower than expected, and the stock's high valuation relative to pre-revenue biotechs. Reference price is the September 23 regular-session close of $49.85, sourced from eToro, the most recent verifiable quote.
DLTR
Dollar Tree raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.70-$8.05 per share on September 22, including approximately 60 cents of net benefit from tariff refunds, following a Q2 earnings beat where adjusted EPS of $1.39 exceeded the Zacks consensus of $1.13 by 23%. The company received $383 million in tariff refunds during the quarter and plans to reinvest about $210 million into pricing, marketing, and store operations. The stock closed at $113.16 on September 23, down 1.63%, and is trading marginally higher in premarket at $113.30. I am forecasting a small gap up because the guidance raise is substantive and the premarket indication is positive, but the stock has been under pressure over the past month as investors weigh margin risks. Risks include the possibility that the tariff refund benefit is one-time in nature, the company's soft near-term earnings forecast, and the potential for further margin compression if reinvestment does not drive traffic. Reference price is the September 23 regular-session close of $113.16, sourced from Yahoo Finance, the most recent verifiable quote.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | TBN, LGCY, SCHL, COST, DYN | +1.19% | 60% |
| Claude Opus 5 | IONQ, ORCL, CBRL, MCD, DIS | -0.25% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | COST, NKE, SNX, DRI, SCHL | +1.69% | 60% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | COST, KMX, MU, NVDA, TSLA | -0.27% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | COST, SCHL, SNX, BB, DRI | +0.17% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-09-25.
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