Event Gaps: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-09-25
Gemini 3 Pro picked COST, KMX, MU, NVDA, TSLA for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -0.27%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 3 Pro |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v9 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-24 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-25 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -0.27% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.33% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COST | up | +4.03% | +4.03% | 75% | +3.70% | Yes |
| 2 | KMX | down | +0.81% | +0.81% | 70% | +0.48% | Yes |
| 3 | MU | up | -1.24% | -1.24% | 72% | -1.57% | No |
| 4 | NVDA | up | -0.03% | -0.03% | 68% | -0.36% | No |
| 5 | TSLA | down | -3.25% | -3.25% | 65% | -3.59% | No |
The model's market view
US equity markets demonstrate mixed positioning ahead of upcoming central bank communications and corporate catalyst events. Large-cap technology and semiconductor equities remain driven by enterprise AI capital expenditure signals, while consumer discretionary and retail sectors face scrutiny regarding inflation persistence and interest-rate sensitivity. The expected opening gaps across target stocks reflect event-driven volatility around earnings reports and key operational updates.
Why each pick
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation is scheduled to publish its Q4 FY2026 earnings results following the market close. The investment thesis centers on stable membership retention rates, positive comparable store sales trends, and international store expansion momentum. Primary risks include potential margin compression from supply chain cost fluctuations and cautious discretionary consumer spending. Live real-time reference price lookup was unavailable at execution time.
KMX
CarMax, Inc. is scheduled to disclose its Q2 FY2027 financial results before the market open. The negative outlook is driven by persistent headwinds in used vehicle affordability, elevated auto loan interest rates, and loan loss provisions in the financing division. Upside risk includes faster-than-expected retail unit volume recovery. Live real-time reference price lookup was unavailable at execution time.
MU
Micron Technology, Inc. recently reported its quarterly earnings and provided forward-quarter revenue guidance. The positive catalyst thesis stems from surging demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM3e) integrated into AI accelerator chips. Downside risks involve potential price softness in standard DRAM and NAND flash markets for consumer electronics. Live real-time reference price lookup was unavailable at execution time.
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation continues to experience volatility linked to anticipated updates regarding next-generation GPU server architecture production schedules and customer deployment metrics. The thesis rests on strong order visibility from major cloud service providers, whereas key risks involve international trade restriction compliance and supply chain bottlenecks. Live real-time reference price lookup was unavailable at execution time.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc. faces gap volatility driven by anticipation surrounding its upcoming quarterly vehicle delivery release and updates on full self-driving technology. The downside thesis considers pricing pressures and aggressive promotional discounting affecting gross margins. Upside risks include unexpected surges in delivery volumes across key overseas markets. Live real-time reference price lookup was unavailable at execution time.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | TBN, LGCY, SCHL, COST, DYN | +1.19% | 60% |
| Claude Opus 5 | IONQ, ORCL, CBRL, MCD, DIS | -0.25% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | COST, NKE, SNX, DRI, SCHL | +1.69% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | COST, SCHL, SNX, BB, DRI | +0.17% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | BB, KNF, IONQ, SRRK, DLTR | -0.87% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-09-25.
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