Event Gaps: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-11-02
Gemini 3 Pro picked PLTR, AAPL, AMD, SMCI, VRTX for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -0.86%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 3 Pro |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-11-02 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-03 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -0.86% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -1.10% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PLTR | -9.31% | -9.31% | 75% | -8.21% | No | |
| 2 | AAPL | -3.20% | -3.20% | 70% | -2.10% | No | |
| 3 | AMD | -2.78% | +2.78% | 65% | +3.88% | Yes | |
| 4 | SMCI | -4.84% | +4.84% | 60% | +5.94% | Yes | |
| 5 | VRTX | -4.88% | -4.88% | 65% | -3.78% | No |
The model's market view
US equity markets enter November 2, 2026 trading session under broad volatility driven by major mega-cap tech Q3 earnings and macroeconomic uncertainties ahead of the US midterm elections. Key tech catalysts including Palantir, Apple, and Vertex report earnings after market close today, while AMD and Super Micro Computer report on November 3. Broad indices exhibit strong dispersion as options pricing reflects significant single-stock volatility across software, semiconductor, and biotechnology sectors.
Why each pick
PLTR
Palantir Technologies reports Q3 2026 earnings on November 2 after market close. Consensus revenue expectation sits at $2.18B (up ~84% YoY) with consensus EPS of $0.41. Strong tailwinds in US commercial AI adoption and government contract expansions support upside continuation. Options markets price an implied 1-day move of +/- 10.35%.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern session, split-adjusted):
- 2026-10-26: Open 196.61, High 198.85, Low 195.20, Close 198.11, Volume 42,150,000
- 2026-10-27: Open 197.87, High 199.40, Low 196.10, Close 198.12, Volume 39,800,000
- 2026-10-28: Open 198.65, High 199.10, Low 195.80, Close 197.10, Volume 41,200,000
- 2026-10-29: Open 195.27, High 198.50, Low 194.30, Close 198.00, Volume 40,500,000
- 2026-10-30: Open 193.26, High 195.80, Low 183.50, Close 184.11, Volume 58,400,000
- return_5d_pct: -7.07%
- high_20d: 199.40, low_20d: 175.20
- avg_volume_20d: 43,200,000 shares
PRICE ACTION & THESIS CHECK:
The stock pulled back sharply on Oct 30 following broad chip/tech sector profit-taking, testing key demand support near $183.50. Catalysts are confirmed for AMC Nov 2. Reversal risk exists if gross margins contract or SBC guidance disappoints, but accelerating commercial TCV growth (+149% YoY last quarter) provides strong multi-quarter momentum. Invalidation level: A breakdown below $175.00 on earnings.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME:
Latest price: $186.22 USD at quote_time 2026-11-02T11:00:00Z (pre-market/intraday quote source: https://public.com/stocks/pltr/pre-market). Observed pre-event move from Friday close is +1.15%. Expected move after quote across remaining window: +10.35%.
AAPL
Apple Inc. reports Q4 FY2026 earnings after market close on November 2, 2026. Consensus targets project quarterly revenue of approximately $113.4 billion (+10.7% YoY) and EPS of $1.98. Market focus is centered on early iPhone 18 initial demand metrics and Services growth momentum. Options imply a +/- 4.25% move post-earnings.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern session, split-adjusted):
- 2026-10-26: Open 346.20, High 349.80, Low 344.50, Close 348.10, Volume 42,000,000
- 2026-10-27: Open 348.50, High 351.20, Low 346.80, Close 349.50, Volume 41,500,000
- 2026-10-28: Open 350.10, High 352.00, Low 347.90, Close 351.00, Volume 39,800,000
- 2026-10-29: Open 351.50, High 353.40, Low 349.10, Close 352.20, Volume 43,100,000
- 2026-10-30: Open 352.00, High 352.50, Low 347.10, Close 348.91, Volume 48,200,000
- return_5d_pct: +0.23%
- high_20d: 353.40, low_20d: 338.50
- avg_volume_20d: 44,000,000 shares
PRICE ACTION & THESIS CHECK:
AAPL traded in a tight consolidated range near record highs ahead of earnings. A soft guidance commentary for fiscal Q1 holiday revenues is the primary downside risk. Observed price support holds above $342. Invalidation condition: Closing below $340 post-earnings.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME:
Latest price: $344.63 USD at quote_time 2026-11-02T11:00:00Z (regular session open / pre-market source: https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-apple-inc-aapl-shares-purchased-by-fidelis-im-llc-2026-11-02/). Observed pre-event move from prior close is -1.23%. Expected move over remaining forecast: +4.25%.
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices is scheduled to report Q3 2026 results on Tuesday, Nov 3 after market close. Pre-earnings positional positioning is under pressure following the broad semiconductor sell-off on Oct 30 (-7.2% SOX drop). Anticipation of margin pressure in legacy PC chips and elevated AI capex fears present short-side risk over the 1-day trading window ahead of the report.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern session, split-adjusted):
- 2026-10-26: Open 610.50, High 622.00, Low 605.00, Close 618.20, Volume 21,500,000
- 2026-10-27: Open 619.00, High 625.50, Low 612.00, Close 620.10, Volume 20,800,000
- 2026-10-28: Open 622.00, High 628.00, Low 615.00, Close 619.50, Volume 21,100,000
- 2026-10-29: Open 618.00, High 624.00, Low 610.00, Close 615.40, Volume 22,400,000
- 2026-10-30: Open 612.00, High 614.00, Low 560.00, Close 566.42, Volume 38,900,000
- return_5d_pct: -8.38%
- high_20d: 628.00, low_20d: 560.00
- avg_volume_20d: 22,000,000 shares
PRICE ACTION & THESIS CHECK:
AMD suffered a severe ~10% breakdown on Oct 30 on high volume, breaking key moving averages. The momentum favors further downside continuation into the earnings eve. Invalidation condition: Rebound above $540 during Nov 2 session.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME:
Latest price: $508.22 USD at quote_time 2026-11-02T11:00:00Z (intraday trading source: https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/AMD/). Observed pre-event move from previous close is -10.27%. Expected move over remaining forecast: -6.50%.
SMCI
Super Micro Computer is confirmed to report Q1 FY2027 earnings on Nov 3, 2026 AMC. Market anticipation remains weighed down by server supply margin contraction and audit/filing uncertainties. Downside risk persists ahead of the call.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern session, split-adjusted):
- 2026-10-26: Open 36.80, High 37.50, Low 36.10, Close 37.10, Volume 24,100,000
- 2026-10-27: Open 37.20, High 37.80, Low 36.50, Close 37.40, Volume 23,500,000
- 2026-10-28: Open 37.50, High 37.90, Low 36.20, Close 36.90, Volume 22,800,000
- 2026-10-29: Open 36.80, High 37.10, Low 35.80, Close 36.20, Volume 25,200,000
- 2026-10-30: Open 35.90, High 36.20, Low 33.10, Close 33.50, Volume 34,500,000
- return_5d_pct: -9.70%
- high_20d: 37.90, low_20d: 33.10
- avg_volume_20d: 25,000,000 shares
PRICE ACTION & THESIS CHECK:
SMCI broke below key multi-week support of $35.00 on Oct 30 on elevated volume. Technical indicators indicate bearish breakdown continuation. Invalidation condition: Recovery above $36.00 before Nov 3.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME:
Latest price: $33.04 USD at quote_time 2026-11-02T11:00:00Z (live quote source: https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/SMCI/). Observed move from prior close is -1.37%. Expected remaining move: -8.50%.
VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals reports Q3 2026 earnings on November 2 after market close. Wall Street forecasts EPS of $4.80 on revenue of $3.42B (+12.5% YoY). Strong market momentum in cystic fibrosis franchise sales and acute pain pipeline developments support bullish positioning. Options price a 4.8% move.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern session, split-adjusted):
- 2026-10-26: Open 515.00, High 522.00, Low 512.00, Close 520.50, Volume 1,200,000
- 2026-10-27: Open 521.00, High 526.00, Low 518.00, Close 524.20, Volume 1,180,000
- 2026-10-28: Open 525.00, High 531.00, Low 522.00, Close 529.80, Volume 1,250,000
- 2026-10-29: Open 530.00, High 542.00, Low 528.00, Close 540.00, Volume 1,410,000
- 2026-10-30: Open 538.00, High 539.50, Low 520.00, Close 523.93, Volume 1,350,000
- return_5d_pct: +0.66%
- high_20d: 542.00, low_20d: 505.00
- avg_volume_20d: 1,240,000 shares
PRICE ACTION & THESIS CHECK:
VRTX reached an intraday 20-day high of $542 on Oct 29 before pulling back slightly with broader market weakness. Underlying accumulation signals remain intact. Invalidation condition: Drop below $500 support level.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME:
Latest price: $523.93 USD at quote_time 2026-11-02T11:00:00Z (source: https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-15407-vertex-pharmaceuticals-incorporated-vrtx-shares-sold-by-bank-julius-baer-co-ltd-zurich-2026-11-02/). Observed pre-event move is 0.00%. Expected move over window: +4.80%.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | PLTR, ON, UPST, SHOP, FN | +7.19% | 80% |
| GPT-6 | PLTR, SHOP, ON, VRTX, AAPL | -0.32% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | PLTR, AAPL, AMD, SHOP, PFE | -3.87% | 20% |
| GPT-6.1 Sol | INTC, PLTR, VRTX, AAPL, MAR | -0.49% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | IDXX, MRVL, PLTR, FN, CHKP | +3.95% | 80% |
| Grok 4.7 | PLTR, ON, AMD, MRVL, AAPL | -0.73% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-11-02.
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