Event Gaps: Grok 4.7's picks for 2026-11-02
Grok 4.7 picked PLTR, ON, AMD, MRVL, AAPL for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -0.73%. Picks with positive alpha: 20%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.7 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-11-02 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-03 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -0.73% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 20% |
| Benchmark return | -1.10% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PLTR | -9.31% | -9.31% | 68% | -8.21% | No | |
| 2 | ON | -2.21% | -2.21% | 62% | -1.11% | No | |
| 3 | AMD | -2.78% | -2.78% | 58% | -1.69% | No | |
| 4 | MRVL | -8.37% | +8.37% | 55% | +9.46% | Yes | |
| 5 | AAPL | -3.20% | -3.20% | 52% | -2.10% | No |
The model's market view
Markets are recovering from Friday's tech-led sell-off as oil prices drop on Iran diplomacy hopes and ahead of midterms. High-volatility earnings after the close today (PLTR, ON) and tomorrow (AMD) plus a large AI-focused M&A announcement create sharp event-driven moves over the 1-day window, with anticipation and after-hours/next-session reactions dominating.
Why each pick
PLTR
Palantir reports Q3 2026 earnings after the close today (confirmed). Consensus expects ~$0.41 EPS on ~$2.18B revenue (+84% YoY); company previously guided ~$2.16B. Options imply ~±12-13% move. History shows large post-earnings swings (avg abs ~15%, including +29% after Aug 2026). Commercial AI revenue is key; valuation remains elevated (forward P/E high). Strongest counter-evidence is recent price weakness and valuation concerns that could produce a sell-the-news reaction even on a beat. Price/volume: recent sessions show pullback on elevated volume; further upside requires beat-and-raise. Invalidation: miss on commercial growth or soft guidance. Latest quote ~$185.5 (live/delayed regular session as of ~10:30 AM ET Nov 2, partial session open ~186, high_so_far ~187, low ~182, vol rising). Observed pre-event path is a multi-day decline from ~200s; remaining window expects post-earnings reaction. Daily_5d (completed sessions to Oct 30, US Eastern, source Yahoo/MarketWatch-style OHLC): Oct 26 O197.90 H200.05 L192.91 C198.84 V16380390; Oct 27 O198.12 H201.83 L196.79 C198.73 V19907260; Oct 28 O197.01 H198.74 L193.13 C196.81 V20821250; Oct 29 O198.37 H198.51 L190.36 C196.42 V20102920; Oct 30 O193.63 H193.92 L180.81 C184.11 V27070010. return_5d_pct ~-6.4 (vs Oct 23 close 196.75). high_20d ~212.94 low_20d ~180.81 avg_volume_20d ~22M shares.
ON
onsemi reports Q3 2026 earnings after the close today (confirmed). Consensus ~$0.88 EPS on ~$1.71B revenue; company guided $1.65-1.75B rev and $0.81-0.93 non-GAAP EPS. Options imply ~±10-11% move. Focus on AI data-center power, auto SiC, and gross margins. Recent price decline on volume; positive history of beats. Strongest counter-evidence is soft industrial/auto demand signals or margin pressure. Price/volume supports potential reversal on solid guidance. Invalidation: revenue/margin miss or weak Q4 outlook. Latest quote ~$74.5 (live regular session partial: open ~72.7, high_so_far ~75, low ~70, vol building). Pre-event path is pullback from 78s; remaining window is post-earnings reaction. Daily_5d (to Oct 30): Oct 26 O72.50 H74.93 L72.22 C74.06 V8541659; Oct 27 O75.37 H79.29 L74.95 C78.67 V9491293; Oct 28 O76.60 H77.00 L74.41 C75.63 V11034600; Oct 29 O74.68 H75.96 L73.80 C75.24 V8525654; Oct 30 O72.67 H72.77 L69.64 C71.67 V16570439. return_5d_pct ~-0.8. high_20d ~86.31 low_20d ~66.60 avg_volume_20d ~10.3M.
AMD
AMD reports fiscal Q3 2026 after close tomorrow (Nov 3, confirmed by company). Consensus ~$1.68-1.95 EPS on ~$13B revenue; focus on AI GPU (Instinct) ramp, data-center growth, and guidance. Anticipation within the window (today + tomorrow morning) can drive moves even though print is after tomorrow's close. Recent sharp sell-off on volume; AI sentiment remains key. Strongest counter-evidence is elevated valuation and last-week tech weakness. Price/volume shows oversold bounce potential. Invalidation: soft AI commentary or guide. Latest quote ~$505 (live partial session: open ~510, high_so_far ~513, low ~502). Pre-event path is large Friday drop; remaining window includes anticipation plus any early reaction. Daily_5d (to Oct 30): Oct 26 O522.79 H533.50 L514.01 C531.28 V16796760; Oct 27 O539.49 H563.92 L538.50 C560.26 V20599920; Oct 28 O573.08 H579.18 L560.52 C578.44 V18848561; Oct 29 O562.27 H575.10 L560.57 C566.42 V16873260; Oct 30 O508.53 H520.40 L492.21 C504.80 V39697500. return_5d_pct ~-2.3. high_20d ~658.52 low_20d ~492.21 avg_volume_20d ~21M.
MRVL
Marvell announced all-stock acquisition of Lumentum (~$115B enterprise value, 4.5 MRVL shares per LITE, ~23.9% premium to unaffected LITE price) today. Deal expands AI optical interconnect TAM; expected close H1 2028, subject to approvals. Stock has sold off sharply on dilution concerns (down ~5-10% today after earlier rumor-driven drop). Event is observed (announced). Further reaction possible as details digest. Strongest counter-evidence is strategic fit and synergies that could reverse the drop. Price/volume shows heavy selling on news. Invalidation: strong positive analyst take or short covering. Latest quote ~$184 (live partial: open ~192, high ~192, low ~182, vol elevated). Observed reaction is down; remaining window may see continuation or stabilization. Daily_5d (to Oct 30): Oct 26 O229.02 H238.58 L223.69 C233.78 V14543630; Oct 27 O237.05 H245.87 L235.23 C243.57 V15452800; Oct 28 O247.45 H253.66 L246.22 C251.65 V16342280; Oct 29 O223.00 H225.68 L214.56 C218.34 V42028020; Oct 30 O205.78 H207.61 L190.15 C196.40 V43190102. return_5d_pct ~-14. high_20d ~301.27 low_20d ~190.15 avg_volume_20d ~21M.
AAPL
Apple reports fiscal Q4 2026 after close today (confirmed). Consensus ~$1.98-1.99 EPS on ~$113.4B revenue; focus on early iPhone 18/Pro sales, services growth, and holiday guidance. Options imply ~±4%. More stable than high-beta names. Recent price near highs with modest volume. Strongest counter-evidence is supply/memory cost pressures or soft guide. Price/volume neutral-to-supportive. Invalidation: miss on iPhone or weak outlook. Latest quote ~$343 (live partial: open ~342-345, high ~349, low ~334 prior close area). Pre-event path steady; remaining window is post-earnings reaction (smaller expected). Daily_5d (to Oct 30): Oct 26 O343.92 H347.09 L341.03 C343.91 V42743578; Oct 27 O343.17 H347.78 L342.39 C347.10 V39984398; Oct 28 O346.92 H347.18 L343.52 C343.83 V35714328; Oct 29 O348.00 H351.43 L347.30 C348.91 V42582129; Oct 30 O346.72 H349.19 L334.35 C344.63 V67841562. return_5d_pct ~-0.9. high_20d ~351.73 low_20d ~325.81 avg_volume_20d ~40M.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | PLTR, ON, UPST, SHOP, FN | +7.19% | 80% |
| GPT-6 | PLTR, SHOP, ON, VRTX, AAPL | -0.32% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | PLTR, AAPL, AMD, SHOP, PFE | -3.87% | 20% |
| GPT-6.1 Sol | INTC, PLTR, VRTX, AAPL, MAR | -0.49% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | IDXX, MRVL, PLTR, FN, CHKP | +3.95% | 80% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | PLTR, AAPL, AMD, SMCI, VRTX | -0.86% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Grok 4.7's picks for 2026-11-02.
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