Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-11-02
Muse Spark 1.1 picked PLTR, AAPL, AMD, SHOP, PFE for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -3.87%. Picks with positive alpha: 20%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-11-02 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-03 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -3.87% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 20% |
| Benchmark return | -1.10% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PLTR | -9.31% | -9.31% | 72% | -8.21% | No | |
| 2 | AAPL | -3.20% | -3.20% | 65% | -2.10% | No | |
| 3 | AMD | -2.78% | -2.78% | 60% | -1.69% | No | |
| 4 | SHOP | -10.53% | -10.53% | 58% | -9.43% | No | |
| 5 | PFE | +0.99% | +0.99% | 55% | +2.09% | Yes |
The model's market view
Week of Nov 2-6 is peak Q3 earnings with Apple and Palantir after close Nov 2, Pfizer and Shopify before open Nov 3, and AMD after close Nov 3 plus midterm elections Nov 3. Market is pricing large gaps: options imply +-4.25% for AAPL and +-13.3% for PLTR. Friday Oct 30 saw heavy selling in semis AMD -10.88% and PLTR -6.27%. Current session Nov 2 shows modest pre-market bounces but volume remains elevated. Anticipation for Nov 3 morning earnings should drive direction, with post-close Nov 2 reports scoring in Nov 3 regular session within the window ending 15:35 UTC Nov 3.
Why each pick
PLTR
Thesis: Palantir reports Q3 after close Nov 2, guidance $2.160-2.164B revenue and $1.292-1.296B adj operating income. Consensus ~$2.18B +84% YoY EPS $0.41. Event has occurred? Scheduled and about to occur at answer time, not yet released. Fundamental change would be US commercial acceleration and RPO growth; sentiment risk is valuation 442B market cap ~55x annualized Q2 revenue. Price action: latest completed close Oct 30 184.11 down -6.27% on day with high volume 27.07M vs avg 23.06M, indicating exhaustion but also fear. Last 5 completed closes: Oct 24? Actually 5-day window shows downtrend -6.42% 5d return.
Daily 5d (oldest to newest, completed only, EST regular session, source https://StockAnalysis.com/stocks/pltr/history/): 2026-10-26 open 197.90 high 200.05 low 192.91 close 198.84 vol 16380393; 2026-10-27 open 198.12 high 201.83 low 196.79 close 198.73 vol 19907261; 2026-10-28 open 197.01 high 198.74 low 193.13 close 196.81 vol 20821251; 2026-10-29 open 198.37 high 198.51 low 190.36 close 196.42 vol 20102916; 2026-10-30 open 193.63 high 193.92 low 180.81 close 184.11 vol 27070006. return_5d_pct = 100*(184.11/196.75-1) = -6.42% using Oct 23 close 196.75 as 6th bar. high_20d = 212.94 (Oct 12 high), low_20d = 180.81 (Oct 30 low), avg_volume_20d = 23056771 shares over Oct 5-Oct 30 inclusive. Source https://StockAnalysis.com/stocks/pltr/history/ Eastern session.
Price/volume: Oct 30 bar closed near low of range (184.11 vs range 180.81-193.92) lower wick 3.3 points vs upper 9.8 points, indicating intraday selling pressure but long lower shadow suggests buyers near 180. High volume > avg suggests capitulation. 20-day range extension: close near low_20d, breakout/breakdown risk to downside if earnings disappoint.
Intraday evidence: latest_price 187.025 USD, quote_time 2026-11-02T10:30:00-05:00, source https://finnhub.io/?q=%22PLTR%22, delayed regular-session quote; reference_price 187.025 consistent. Partial session Nov 2 open 186.52 high 187.55 low 181.63 per finnhub, as of 10:30 ET. Pre-event path: down -7.4% week into earnings. Observed reaction: pre-market bounce +1.58% from 184.11 close to 187.025, not yet earnings. Expected after: after current quote, market will react to actual Q3 print at ~21:00 UTC Nov 2 and trade Nov 3 open inside window; expectation is beat on revenue and raised FY guidance drives + continuation, but if US commercial sequential growth <10% or implied Q4 < consensus $2.46B, downside 13%+ possible. Counter-evidence: options straddle pricing 13.3% implies symmetric risk, and Palantir down on 11 of 24 reports, median open gap 11.5%. Invalidation: verified price level close below 180.81 low_20d after earnings or management guiding FY revenue below $8.22B consensus would invalidate up thesis; conversely a new 52-week high above 212.94 would confirm momentum.
AAPL
Thesis: Apple fiscal Q4 earnings after close Nov 2, 1:30pm PT release 2pm PT call first with new CEO John Ternus. Expected EPS $1.99-$2.03 revenue $113.4-115.66B, covering iPhone 18 Pro launch week. Event scheduled, not yet occurred at prediction_time. Fundamental change is iPhone revenue growth mid-teens guidance and services. Sentiment high as stock near ATH $351.73.
Daily 5d (completed, EST, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/history/): 2026-10-26 open 343.92 high 347.09 low 341.03 close 343.91 vol 42743575; 2026-10-27 open 343.17 high 347.78 low 342.39 close 347.10 vol 39984395; 2026-10-28 open 346.92 high 347.18 low 343.52 close 343.83 vol 35714331; 2026-10-29 open 348.00 high 351.43 low 347.30 close 348.91 vol 42582126; 2026-10-30 open 346.72 high 349.19 low 334.35 close 344.63 vol 67841555. return_5d_pct = 100*(344.63/347.73-1)= -0.89% using Oct 23 close 347.73. high_20d=351.73 (Oct 23 high) low_20d=330.62 (Oct 6 low) avg_volume_20d=40410686 shares.
Price action: Oct 30 bearish engulfing with long upper wick 349.19 to close 344.63 near low, volume 67.8M >2x avg indicating distribution. Prior 5 days choppy inside 340-351 range. Close near middle of 20-day range, not extended. Volume spike suggests exhaustion before earnings.
Intraday: latest_price 340.4206 USD quote_time 2026-11-02T10:30:00-05:00 source https://finnhub.io/?q=%22AAPL%22 delayed regular-session; partial session Nov 2 open 342.67 high 343.8 low 339.61 per finnhub, stockanalysis shows 9:42 AM EST 341.07 -1.03% intraday. Pre-event path: down -2.1% 5d. Observed reaction: down -1.22% intraday Nov 2, no earnings yet. Expected after: beat on iPhone units plus holiday guide could drive gap up 4-5% on Nov 3 open, window captures full regular session Nov 3. Anticipation already partially reflected in pre-market near $345. Counter-evidence: consensus target $337.77 below price, moderate buy, and Alphabet negative FCF precedent makes market punish high capex; guidance for Q1 could be conservative due to memory supply. Invalidation: if Apple reports revenue below $111.7B implied by 9% growth guide or holiday outlook flat, thesis fails; verified level break below 334.35 Oct 30 low intraday would signal breakdown.
AMD
Thesis: AMD fiscal Q3 earnings scheduled after close Nov 3, after window ends (21:00 UTC Nov 3) but anticipation moves Nov 3 regular session which is inside window. Company guided Q3 revenue ~$13B +-300M +41% YoY non-GAAP gross margin ~56% after Q2 $11.5B. Event is officially scheduled, future relative to window end, so this is anticipation trade. Fundamental change is data-center MI300 ramp and OpenAI/ Meta/ Microsoft deployment as Nvidia alternative.
Daily 5d (completed, EST, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amd/history/?ref=bytenewsdaily.com): 2026-10-26 open 522.79 high 533.50 low 514.01 close 531.28 vol 16796761; 2026-10-27 open 539.49 high 563.92 low 538.50 close 560.26 vol 20599918; 2026-10-28 open 573.08 high 579.18 low 560.52 close 578.44 vol 18848560; 2026-10-29 open 562.27 high 575.10 low 560.57 close 566.42 vol 16873264; 2026-10-30 open 508.53 high 520.40 low 492.21 close 504.80 vol 39697503. return_5d_pct = 100*(504.80/516.79-1)= -2.32% using Oct 23 close 516.79. high_20d=658.52 (Oct 6 high) low_20d=492.21 (Oct 30 low) avg_volume_20d=20508742 shares.
Price action: Oct 30 -10.88% gap down from 566.42 to 504.80, closed near low of day with huge volume 39.7M nearly 2x avg, indicating capitulation after semi selloff (NVDA -4.2%). Prior path was down -20% month. Nov 2 partial recovery: open 510.71 high 512.82 low 501.88 close partial 504.92 vol 6M as of 10:35 ET, showing attempt to reclaim 500 level. 20-day range shows breakdown from 658 to 492, oversold.
Intraday: latest_price 504.1 USD quote_time 2026-11-02T10:30:00-05:00 source https://finnhub.io/?q=%22AMD%22 delayed regular-session; partial session per stockanalysis Nov 2 open 510.71 high 512.82 low 501.88. Pre-event path: sharp decline into earnings, expectation reset. Observed reaction: none yet to Q3 print, only bounce from oversold. Expected after: short covering and positioning ahead of Nov 3 after-close report likely lifts stock 4-6% intraday Nov 3 before actual release, as traders price in AI revenue beat. Anticipation explains move even though event outside window. Counter-evidence: AMD historically down on 41 of 67 report days, median -1.6%, and recent median swing 7% with large downside days -17.3% Feb and -10.6% Oct 30 2024, so sentiment fragile. Invalidation: break below verified 492.21 Oct 30 low on Nov 3 regular session would signal continued selling and invalidate up anticipation; also if peers report weak data-center demand, thesis fails.
SHOP
Thesis: Shopify Q3 2026 earnings before open Nov 3, 8:30am ET call. Confirmed date announced Oct 6 via company. Event scheduled within window (morning Nov 3). Q2 revenue $3.58B +33.7% YoY. Expectation is continued GMV growth and payments monetization. Fundamental vs sentiment: revenue growth solid but market cap 202B, stock down -8.6% 1Y.
Daily 5d (completed, EST, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/shop/history/): 2026-10-26 open 168.50 high 171.41 low 167.59 close 168.18 vol 5222924; 2026-10-27 open 168.58 high 171.00 low 163.57 close 165.81 vol 5485007; 2026-10-28 open 165.42 high 169.20 low 164.42 close 168.22 vol 5688841; 2026-10-29 open 165.22 high 168.55 low 162.52 close 166.89 vol 4549758; 2026-10-30 open 161.89 high 162.10 low 154.26 close 157.49 vol 10541418. return_5d_pct=100*(157.49/168.68-1)= -6.63% using Oct 23 close 168.68. high_20d=180.88 (Oct 12 high) low_20d=151.70 (Oct 5 low) avg_volume_20d=7982558 shares.
Price action: Oct 30 -5.63% close near low 157.49 with volume 10.5M > avg 7.9M, bearish, lower wick 3.2 points. Prior 4 days sideways 165-168. Breakdown from 180 high early Oct. Oversold bounce potential into earnings.
Intraday: latest_price 158.91 USD quote_time 2026-11-02T10:30:00-05:00 source https://finnhub.io/?q=%22SHOP%22 delayed regular-session, pre-market 158.00 +0.32% per stockanalysis Nov 2 9:20 AM EST. Partial session not yet high/low for Nov 3. Pre-event path: down -5.79% 5d. Observed reaction: slight pre-market up +0.9% from close. Expected after: Q3 beat on revenue and operating income could cause +5-7% gap up on Nov 3 open, within window (window ends 10:35 EST Nov 3, after open). Counter-evidence: high beta 2.68, e-commerce sensitive to consumer spend and valuation stretched at 105 P/E; prior earnings volatile. Invalidation: if SHOP guides Q4 below consensus or reports GMV slowdown, gap down below 154.26 Oct 30 low would invalidate up; also break above 168.55 Oct 29 high would confirm momentum but failure to hold would suggest reversal.
PFE
Thesis: Pfizer Q3 2026 earnings before open Nov 3, call 10am ET. Confirmed via Pfizer webcast notice. Event scheduled within window. Consensus EPS ~$0.76-0.78 revenue ~$15.9B. Fundamental change: Seagen integration, cost cuts, COVID to non-COVID transition. Sentiment improving +21% YTD but low beta 0.29.
Daily 5d (completed, EST, source https://StockAnalysis.com/stocks/pfe/history/): 2026-10-26 open 30.00 high 30.31 low 29.72 close 29.79 vol 25656348; 2026-10-27 open 29.54 high 29.86 low 29.51 close 29.80 vol 25592917; 2026-10-28 open 29.49 high 29.82 low 29.22 close 29.45 vol 27260375; 2026-10-29 open 29.99 high 30.18 low 29.61 close 29.95 vol 34259421; 2026-10-30 open 30.51 high 30.67 low 30.14 close 30.52 vol 45485398. return_5d_pct=100*(30.52/30.03-1)= +1.63% using Oct 23 close 30.03. high_20d=30.67 (Oct 30 high) low_20d=27.12 (Oct 5 low) avg_volume_20d=29529546 shares.
Price action: uptrend last 5 days +1.63% with rising volume, Oct 30 +1.90% close near high 30.52 vs range 30.14-30.67, strong close near high suggests accumulation. Breakout above 30.5 resistance near 52-week high 30.67. 20-day range near top.
Intraday: latest_price 30.32 USD quote_time 2026-11-02T10:30:00-05:00 source https://finnhub.io/?q=%22PFE%22 delayed regular-session; finnhub shows open 30.45 high 30.635 low 30.2 previous close 30.52. Partial pre-market Nov 2 30.46 -0.20% per stockanalysis 8:44 AM EST. Pre-event path: up +9% month into earnings, positive momentum. Observed reaction: none to earnings yet. Expected after: beat on cost savings and Paxlovid/Comirnaty stabilization plus Seagen growth could drive +2-3% move on Nov 3 open, window captures open. Counter-evidence: Pfizer historically low earnings volatility, rarely moves >5% (Pfizer never moved 10% on report per jorgai analysis), and high expectations after +15% 6-month run may limit upside; miss on EPS due to R&D could cause -2% downside. Invalidation: close below 29.79 Oct 26 low or guidance cut for FY would invalidate up thesis; break above 30.67 high_20d with volume > avg would confirm continuation.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | PLTR, ON, UPST, SHOP, FN | +7.19% | 80% |
| GPT-6 | PLTR, SHOP, ON, VRTX, AAPL | -0.32% | 40% |
| GPT-6.1 Sol | INTC, PLTR, VRTX, AAPL, MAR | -0.49% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | IDXX, MRVL, PLTR, FN, CHKP | +3.95% | 80% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | PLTR, AAPL, AMD, SMCI, VRTX | -0.86% | 40% |
| Grok 4.7 | PLTR, ON, AMD, MRVL, AAPL | -0.73% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-11-02.
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