Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-15
Grok 4.5 picked XLE, CRWD, CVX, PANW, XOM for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +0.15%. Picks that beat SPY: 40%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v7 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-15 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-16 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +0.15% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.12% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XLE | -1.04% | 65% | -1.16% | No |
| 2 | CRWD | +2.15% | 60% | +2.03% | Yes |
| 3 | CVX | -0.51% | 58% | -0.63% | No |
| 4 | PANW | +1.70% | 55% | +1.58% | Yes |
| 5 | XOM | -0.94% | 53% | -1.06% | No |
The model's market view
US equities opened soft on Tuesday with SPY futures pressured by elevated oil prices, 10-year yields above 5%, and positioning ahead of the September 16 FOMC decision (high odds of a 25bp hike). Semiconductor and broader tech remain cautious after the prior session's AI-related selloff, while energy continues to benefit from higher crude. Relative strength is expected in energy and cybersecurity names versus the broad market.
Why each pick
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR benefits directly from sustained high oil prices (Brent near $108 and WTI elevated on Middle East supply concerns). The sector has shown relative outperformance amid broader equity softness and is less exposed to pre-Fed growth-stock pressure. Risk is a sudden de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or a sharp risk-on equity rebound that reduces the commodity premium.
CRWD
CrowdStrike has displayed strong relative strength amid the AI-security theme and prior-session gains in cybersecurity names. It offers a liquid way to capture defensive tech exposure that can hold up better than pure semiconductor or hardware plays on a cautious pre-FOMC day. Risk is profit-taking or correlation with a broader tech selloff if risk sentiment deteriorates further.
CVX
Chevron is a major integrated energy name leveraged to higher crude prices and refining margins. Elevated oil supports earnings expectations and relative performance versus SPY while growth sectors face headwinds. Risk is a rapid pullback in oil prices or broader equity weakness that overrides sector strength.
PANW
Palo Alto Networks shares the cybersecurity relative-strength theme tied to heightened focus on AI-related security risks. It has shown resilience in recent sessions and provides exposure less directly tied to the semiconductor selloff. Risk is a sharp risk-off move that pulls all high-beta tech lower or rotation away from the sector.
XOM
Exxon Mobil offers broad exposure to the elevated oil-price environment and has historically shown relative strength when energy leads. It provides a large-cap, liquid vehicle for capturing the commodity tailwind on a day when SPY faces rate and AI-related pressure. Risk is profit-taking after recent energy gains or a broader market rebound that reduces relative outperformance.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek V3 | RLGT, WAY, FPS, AGL, RMD | -0.62% | 60% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | USO, XLE, ETSY, CE, LMT | +0.11% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | XLE, OXY, MPC, XOM, CVX | -0.89% | 20% |
| Claude Opus 5 | XLE, SMH, XLV, XOP, ITA | -0.20% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | XLE, USMV, XLP, XLV, CIBR | +0.11% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-15.
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