Stock Selection: DeepSeek V3's picks for 2026-09-15
DeepSeek V3 picked RLGT, WAY, FPS, AGL, RMD for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -0.62%. Picks that beat SPY: 60%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek V3 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v7 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-15 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-16 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -0.62% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.12% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RLGT | +0.75% | 82% | +0.63% | Yes |
| 2 | WAY | -1.23% | 76% | -1.35% | No |
| 3 | FPS | +3.90% | 71% | +3.78% | Yes |
| 4 | AGL | -6.33% | 67% | -6.46% | No |
| 5 | RMD | +0.42% | 64% | +0.30% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equities enter the September 15 session under broad selling pressure, with S&P 500 futures down roughly 0.5% and the 10-year Treasury yield having briefly breached 5% for the first time since 2023. The FOMC meeting begins today with a rate decision due September 16, and traders are pricing a ~90% probability of a 25bp hike. AI-linked stocks are under acute pressure after Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI leaders publicly called for a slowdown in frontier model development, with Nvidia down 3.4% and Micron off over 5% on Monday. Bank stocks are also weak after Bank of America's CEO flagged flat trading revenue. In this environment, broad beta exposure is unlikely to outperform SPY; stock-specific catalysts — earnings beats, strategic reviews, and analyst initiations — are the most plausible source of relative outperformance over a single session.
Why each pick
RLGT
Thesis: Radiant Logistics reported Q4 FY2026 results after Monday's close, with revenue of $261.4 million beating the consensus estimate of $231.3 million and EPS of $0.15 beating the $0.09 consensus (Benzinga, September 15). The stock jumped 17.8% to $9.68 in Tuesday's session. Citizens JMP simultaneously upgraded RLGT to Market Outperform with a $10 price target, implying further upside from the reported $8.21 pre-earnings price. The company also amended its $200 million credit facility, extending maturity to 2031 and expanding the acquisition accordion to $100 million. Risks: The stock is a small-cap with limited liquidity; the 17.8% single-day move may attract profit-taking; and the broader market sell-off could cap gains if risk-off intensifies into the FOMC decision.
WAY
Thesis: Waystar is exploring strategic options including a potential sale, according to Reuters, and has engaged Evercore as an advisor (September 15). The stock jumped 8.6% to $27.05 on the news, with premarket gains reaching as high as 16%. EQT holds a 13% stake and CPP Investments owns 10%, giving the process credible strategic backing. M&A-driven situations often see sustained buying interest as event-driven funds accumulate and the market assigns a deal premium. Risks: The reports explicitly state discussions are at an early stage and no transaction is assured; if the sale process stalls or EQT signals it will not sell, the deal premium could unwind quickly; and the stock's 12-month performance has been weak, indicating underlying business pressure.
FPS
Thesis: Forgent Power Solutions reported Q4 results with EPS of $1.63 and revenue of $462 million, beating expectations, and issued FY27 guidance above estimates (GuruFocus, September 15). The stock rose 8.4% to $31.06 in Tuesday's session (Benzinga). Forgent is a power solutions company tied to data-center and industrial electrification demand, a theme that retains structural support even as AI software sentiment wobbles. The stock's reaction to the earnings beat and guidance raise suggests genuine fundamental momentum rather than a sympathy move. Risks: Forgent's P/E ratio exceeds 600x on a trailing basis, leaving little room for multiple compression if growth expectations moderate; the stock had fallen sharply from its 52-week high of $66 before this report, and a single session of strength may not reverse that downtrend.
AGL
Thesis: Bernstein upgraded agilon health from Market Perform to Outperform and raised its price target from $86 to $125, implying substantial upside from the $92.38 close (Benzinga, September 15). The upgrade is based on the company's turnaround gaining traction, with the analyst citing improving fundamentals. AGL gained 2.91% on Monday and was up another 1.12% in premarket trading. Healthcare services names have been relative safe havens in the current risk-off environment, and an upgrade of this magnitude from a credible sell-side shop can drive multi-day institutional accumulation. Risks: AGL has a negative EPS of -$15.23 on a trailing basis and trades at a negative P/E, meaning the thesis rests entirely on the recovery trajectory; any disappointment in upcoming operational updates could cause a sharp reversal; and the stock remains well below its 52-week high of $133.04.
RMD
Thesis: RBC Capital upgraded ResMed from Sector Perform to Outperform and raised its price target to $262 from $244, citing the company's leadership in obstructive sleep apnea devices and accelerating global market penetration (Investing.com, September 15). KeyBanc also raised its RMD price target to $267, maintaining an Overweight rating. The stock gained 2.16% on Monday to $222.99 and was up another 0.49% in premarket trading. RMD offers defensive healthcare exposure with a 21x P/E, 10% revenue growth, and 14 consecutive years of dividend increases, making it a plausible relative outperformer if the market's risk-off tone continues into the FOMC. Risks: ResMed's revenue slightly missed consensus in its most recent quarter; the stock has already been outperforming, so the upgrade-driven pop may be modest; and if a hawkish FOMC triggers a broad de-risking that spares nothing, even defensives can decline.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | USO, XLE, ETSY, CE, LMT | +0.11% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | XLE, CRWD, CVX, PANW, XOM | +0.15% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | XLE, OXY, MPC, XOM, CVX | -0.89% | 20% |
| Claude Opus 5 | XLE, SMH, XLV, XOP, ITA | -0.20% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | XLE, USMV, XLP, XLV, CIBR | +0.11% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: DeepSeek V3's picks for 2026-09-15.
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