Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-22
Grok 4.5 picked SPOT, WCN, XLE, CVX, XOM for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +3.12%. Picks that beat SPY: 100%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-22 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-23 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +3.12% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 100% |
| Benchmark return | -0.03% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SPOT | +1.07% | 72% | +1.10% | Yes |
| 2 | WCN | +2.51% | 70% | +2.54% | Yes |
| 3 | XLE | +4.11% | 68% | +4.14% | Yes |
| 4 | CVX | +3.69% | 65% | +3.72% | Yes |
| 5 | XOM | +4.09% | 64% | +4.12% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equities are lower, led by tech and semiconductors on renewed AI spending concerns after mixed Tesla and Meta results, while crude oil has surged to multi-month highs on Middle East tensions including Saudi strikes and Iran-related risks. Defensive and commodity-linked names are relatively resilient; energy stands out as a clear relative outperformer versus SPY in a risk-off session with elevated oil prices.
Why each pick
SPOT
Strong Q3 results and above-consensus Q4 operating-income guidance drove a sharp gap-up and sustained intraday gains of roughly 8-9%. Momentum from the beat and raised outlook should support continued relative strength versus the broader market, which is pressured by AI and growth-stock weakness. Risks include profit-taking after the large move and any broader risk-off spillover if tech selling intensifies.
WCN
Q3 earnings beat and a second raise to full-year 2026 guidance produced a strong open and continued gains near 8%. Waste-management fundamentals and the raised outlook provide a defensive, cash-flow-driven catalyst that is insulated from AI and oil volatility. Risks are limited follow-through if the broader market sells off further or if guidance optimism fades on higher fuel costs.
XLE
Energy sector ETF is positioned to capture the sharp rise in Brent and WTI driven by Middle East supply risks. While the broader market is down, energy has relative support from higher crude; the ETF offers diversified exposure to integrated majors and producers that benefit directly. Risks include any sudden de-escalation headlines that reverse oil prices or general market beta drag.
CVX
Integrated major with direct leverage to the oil price spike; shares have been hitting multi-month highs on geopolitical risk premium. Relative performance versus SPY should remain constructive while crude stays elevated and the market stays risk-off. Risks are profit-taking after recent gains and any reversal in oil if tensions ease.
XOM
Largest integrated oil company benefits from the same crude rally and Middle East risk premium supporting energy majors. It has shown relative resilience amid tech-led declines and offers liquidity and dividend support. Risks include correlation to broader equity weakness and potential oil price pullback on any diplomatic progress.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | LMT, CSX, XLV, XLP, SPOT | -0.10% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | LMT, XLP, SPOT, CSX, ZS | +0.79% | 60% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | BHVN, LRCX, IBM, ALLE, TSLA | -0.55% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | LMT, ALLE, CSX, ROP, PG | +0.88% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-22.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.