Stock Selection: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-29
DeepSeek picked LLY, MRK, LHX, XEL, AMZN for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +1.95%. Picks that beat SPY: 80%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-29 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-30 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +1.95% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 80% |
| Benchmark return | -1.50% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LLY | +3.17% | 78% | +4.67% | Yes |
| 2 | MRK | +0.22% | 70% | +1.72% | Yes |
| 3 | LHX | +0.26% | 64% | +1.76% | Yes |
| 4 | XEL | +2.02% | 58% | +3.53% | Yes |
| 5 | AMZN | -3.44% | 54% | -1.93% | No |
The model's market view
US equities are mixed and defensive on Thursday, 29 October 2026: Alphabet's Q3 revenue miss and surging AI capex have rekindled return-on-investment worries, leaving Nasdaq-100 futures down about 1.1% while Dow and Russell 2000 futures hold small gains. The Fed held at 3.75%-4.00% in a hawkish 10-2 vote, December hike odds sit near 80%, the 10-year yield is around 5%, September core PCE was in line at 3.1% y/y, and advance Q3 GDP beat at +3.4%. Capital is rotating out of AI/tech into healthcare, defense, utilities and other value/defensive pockets. VIX is near 16.9 and firming. Amazon and Intel report after the close, so Friday's open is the next binary catalyst. With the S&P 500 down modestly and breadth outside tech positive, single-name earnings winners and low-beta defensives are the best candidates to outpace SPY over this one-session window.
Why each pick
LLY
Eli Lilly delivered a blowout Q3 2026: adjusted EPS of $7.48 versus consensus near $5.68-$6.35, revenue up about 39%, and management raised full-year guidance on surging Mounjaro and Zepbound demand. The stock was up roughly 7% at about $1,378.88 by 10:31 ET, hitting record highs as healthcare leads the rotation away from AI/tech. Momentum, a genuine fundamental beat-and-raise, and defensive sector tailwinds make it the highest-conviction candidate to beat SPY over the session, including the overnight gap into Friday. Risks: the move is extended and vulnerable to profit-taking; a high valuation leaves little room for error; a broad risk-off wave could cap further gains.
MRK
Merck beat Q3 estimates with adjusted EPS of $2.49 versus about $2.09 and revenue above consensus, driven by Keytruda and Gardasil, and raised its full-year adjusted profit forecast. Shares traded up about 4.7% near $147.58 by 10:07 ET. As a defensive, dividend-paying pharma with a fresh beat-and-raise, MRK is well positioned to outperform if tech weakness persists and should also participate if the tape stabilizes. Risks: post-earnings profit-taking after the intraday spike, drug-pricing policy headlines, and a sharp rotation back into growth that would leave defensives behind.
LHX
L3Harris reported a strong Q3, posted a record backlog and raised FY2026 guidance, lifting its EPS outlook to $12.25-$12.35 from $11.80-$12.00, above the roughly $11.90 consensus. The stock was up about 5% at roughly $273.75 by 09:59 ET, with technical momentum improving. Defense is a beneficiary of the rotation out of high-multiple AI names, and the guidance raise provides a company-specific tailwind into Friday. Risks: premarket and early-session gains can fade, defense budgets and continuing-resolution headlines are a live risk, and the name is sensitive to broad risk appetite.
XEL
Xcel Energy beat Q3 EPS estimates by about $0.15 and is levered to data-center power demand while trading as a low-beta regulated utility. Shares were up about 0.5% near $77.77 intraday. In a session where the S&P 500 is pressured by a single mega-cap tech miss, a defensive utility with an earnings beat is a reliable way to outpace SPY with limited downside. Risks: revenue came in light at $4.17B versus about $4.26B expected, the 10-year yield near 5% and hawkish Fed pricing are headwinds for utilities, and upside is inherently modest if equities rally sharply.
AMZN
Amazon reports Q3 after the close with consensus EPS around $1.96-$2.01 and AWS growth as the key swing factor. The stock fell roughly 5% to about $241.81 by 09:38 ET, about 16% below its 52-week high, as Alphabet's capex scare hit hyperscalers and expectations were reset lower. That low bar creates asymmetric potential for a relief gap at Friday's open, which the window captures. Risks: a further capex guidance increase could trigger an Alphabet-style de-rating, the event is binary, and the position could gap sharply lower on any AWS or margin disappointment.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | LLY, PWR, MA, MRK, VRT | +0.22% | 60% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | XLE, RSP, IWM, MSFT, NVDA | +0.64% | 60% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash High | NVDA, AMD, MSFT, QQQ, AMZN | -2.61% | 20% |
| Perplexity | XLP, WMT, GLD, NVDA, QQQ | +0.45% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | LLY, RSP, CROX, NCLH, GKOS | +2.81% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-29.
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