Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-29
Muse Spark 1.1 picked LLY, PWR, MA, MRK, VRT for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +0.22%. Picks that beat SPY: 60%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-29 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-30 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +0.22% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -1.50% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LLY | +3.17% | 78% | +4.67% | Yes |
| 2 | PWR | -3.10% | 75% | -1.60% | No |
| 3 | MA | -0.16% | 72% | +1.34% | Yes |
| 4 | MRK | +0.22% | 70% | +1.72% | Yes |
| 5 | VRT | -6.53% | 68% | -5.03% | No |
The model's market view
Market is risk-off on Oct 29 after Alphabet GOOGL missed Q3 with revenue $111-127B vs $132B expected, EPS $2.12 vs $3.11 expected, $51.4B capex driving -$9B free cash flow and $8.7B unrealized loss on 【entity-SpaceX¦canonical_name=SpaceX】, down 12% pre-market to $285.9 dragging SPY to $768.85 down 0.45%. Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% on Oct 28 providing support. Heavy earnings day with 480 reports including 【entity-Apple¦canonical_name=Apple】 and 【entity-Amazon¦canonical_name=Amazon】 after close. Outperformance likely in defensive pharma and payments and AI infrastructure contractors that beat today.
Why each pick
LLY
Eli Lilly reported Q3 2026 before open Oct 29: revenue $24.4B up 39% YoY, EPS $7.48 vs consensus $5.68 beat by $1.80, net income $6.45B, raised full-year guidance to $91-92B from $85-87B (+$5.5B), driven by 41% volume growth in Mounjaro/Zepbound with 63% US obesity share. Stock trading intraday live $1380.955 up 7.19% from prior close $1288.3, high $1408.38, showing strong momentum. Low beta 0.41 defensive in tech selloff caused by GOOGL, will outperform SPY which is down due to mega-cap drag. Thesis: guidance raise + GLP-1 dominance continues into next session. Risks: stretched valuation P/E 45, profit-taking after +7% move, high expectations for obesity market, possible rotation back to tech if 【entity-Amazon¦canonical_name=Amazon】 beats after close.
PWR
Quanta Services beat Q3 2026 before open Oct 29: EPS $6.06 vs $5.03 consensus (+20.48% surprise), vs $3.33 year ago, revenue $12.01B vs $11.03B consensus (+$980M), profit $694.9M. Record revenues vs $7.63B last year, strong backlog for utility and energy AI data center power. Intraday live price $646.88 vs prior close $606.89, up 6.59%, open $632.115, high $647.5. Benefits from same AI infra theme as Vertiv but without GOOGL capex concerns. Likely to outperform SPY down -0.45% as analysts raise targets. Risks: construction beta 1.29, high P/E 64.8, already extended, sensitive to interest rates despite Fed hold.
MA
【entity-Mastercard¦canonical_name=Mastercard】 beat Q3 2026 before open Oct 29: adjusted EPS $5.31 vs $5.14-$5.17 consensus, revenue $9.807B up 14% vs $9.65B expected, operating income up, cross-border and services +19%. Consumer spending resilient despite macro uncertainty. Intraday live $637.865 vs prior close $610.31 up 4.51%, open $621.83 high $641.56, pre-market $628.49 up 3%. Payment network is defensive vs tech selloff, low beta 0.80, will hold gains vs SPY. Thesis: continues to outperform as value-added services grow. Risks: consumer spending slowdown, regulatory pressure on interchange, mean reversion after gap up.
MRK
【entity-Merck¦canonical_name=Merck】 beat Q3 2026 before open Oct 29: EPS $2.49 vs $2.12 consensus (+17.45% surprise) vs $2.58 a year ago, revenue $18.085B up 5% vs $17.31B expected (+$760M), Keytruda sales $8.6B +6% offsetting generics. Raised full-year sales outlook to $66.8-67.3B and narrowed EPS guidance up. Intraday live $147.45 vs prior close $140.93 up ~4.6%, open $144.62 low $143.32 high $149.26, pre-market +2.17% to $143.99. Low beta 0.12 pharma defensive in GOOGL-led market drop, will outperform SPY. Risks: Keytruda patent cliff, Gardasil China weakness, GAAP EPS down 12% YoY to $2.04, lowered EPS due to charges in past.
VRT
Vertiv surged 16.48% Oct 28 to $242.94 after Q3 revenue $4.31B vs $3.76B forecast (+14.7%), EPS $2.21 vs $1.82 (+21.4%), organic orders doubled YoY, operating cash flow +64% to $794M, FCF +50% to $652M, raised 2026 revenue by $650M. Continuation momentum Oct 29 intraday live $251.03 vs prior close $242.94 up 3.33%, open $237.96 high $251.24 low $236.5. AI data center power/cooling pure-play benefits from AI buildout even as GOOGL punished for capex, decoupled demand signal. Beta 2.12 gives high upside vs SPY. Thesis: short squeeze and analyst upgrades persist 1 session. Risks: extended after +23% 5-day return, valuation P/E 44.9, profit-taking, high beta downside if risk-off accelerates.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | XLE, RSP, IWM, MSFT, NVDA | +0.64% | 60% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash High | NVDA, AMD, MSFT, QQQ, AMZN | -2.61% | 20% |
| Perplexity | XLP, WMT, GLD, NVDA, QQQ | +0.45% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | LLY, MRK, LHX, XEL, AMZN | +1.95% | 80% |
| GPT-6 | LLY, RSP, CROX, NCLH, GKOS | +2.81% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-29.
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