Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-18
Muse Spark 1.1 picked XLF, XLE, JPM, NVDA, GOOG for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -0.92%. Picks that beat SPY: 40%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-18 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-21 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -0.92% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +1.11% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XLF | +0.32% | 73% | -0.78% | No |
| 2 | XLE | -2.39% | 71% | -3.50% | No |
| 3 | JPM | +1.60% | 70% | +0.49% | Yes |
| 4 | NVDA | +1.73% | 68% | +0.62% | Yes |
| 5 | GOOG | -0.33% | 66% | -1.43% | No |
The model's market view
Sep 18 2026 Friday post-Fed: Fed raised Sep 16 12-0 to 3.75%-4.00% first hike since July 2023 per Freedom969 and Cambridge. Markets pricing 90%+ hike per Livemint, stocks pulled back after hike points to another hike this year. ADVFN SPY options Sep 17 show strikes 753-755 trading heavy volume 6k-40k with last 8-9.40 up 132-140% indicating ~754 SPY level. Finnhub Sep 18 live shows financials XLF $55.61 -0.48% previous close $55.88, energy XLE $64.36 -0.18% previous $64.48, JPM $346.26 -0.87% previous $349.31, NVDA $219.16 -0.08% previous $219.34. After 2-day digestion, oversold semis and rate-beneficiary financials likely to outperform SPY next session Sep 18-21.
Why each pick
XLF
Financial Select Sector benefits from 3.75-4.00% Fed hike Sep 16 unanimous 12-0 per freedom969. Finnhub Sep 18 live $55.61 open $55.66 high $55.765 low $55.46 previous close $55.88 -0.27 -0.48% intraday washout after -5.04% 5-day -4.38% 1-month. Rate hike widens NIM. SPY ~754 flat. XLF oversold vs 52-week high $58.10 Aug 28 per Webull. Live intraday price used.
XLE
Energy Select Sector hedge after Saudi pipeline shut and Hormuz stalled supply driving Brent $106-107 per TalkMarkets Sep 15. Finnhub Sep 18 $64.36 open $64.20 high $64.505 low $64.10 previous close $64.48 -0.12 -0.18% holding YTD +43.95% 1Y +45.28% beta 0.48. Outperforms if inflation sticky post-hike. Live intraday Sep 18 used.
JPM
JPMorgan Chase top bank beneficiary of quarter-point hike Sep 16. Finnhub Sep 18 $346.26 open $347.89 high $348.15 low $345.01 previous close $349.31 -3.05 -0.87% 5-day -4.36% 1-month -4.57% but 6-month +22.16% YTD +7.46%. Strong trading desk into FOMC vol per earlier. Barchart Sep 17 showed JPM $356 +0.36% outperforming XLF. Live intraday Sep 18 used, bounce expected Monday.
NVDA
Nvidia semis leader oversold -4.07% 5-day -2.66% 1-month but 6-month +21.59% YTD +17.51% per Finnhub Sep 18. Current $219.16 open $219.35 high $220.07 low $218.03 previous close $219.34 -0.18 -0.08% flat after SOXL +9.9% bounce Sep 17. Motley Fool notes Mag 7 NVDA +2.54% Sep 17. 52-week high $236.54. Live intraday price Sep 18 used, mean reversion vs SPY.
GOOG
Alphabet Class C stable megacap $4.18T per ad-hoc-news Sep 18 price $341.74 vs 52-week high $404.47 low $236.68. Sep 17 Robinhood $343.45 high $344.70 low $337.45 +1.8% from low. Benefits from AI search and cloud, less rate-sensitive than unprofitable tech, 50-day $344.76 support. Analysts piling on buy calls per ad-hoc. Live Sep 18 price $341.74 used, defensive growth to outperform SPY ~754 flat.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | MU, LITE, COHR, AVGO, LRCX | +3.49% | 80% |
| Claude Opus 5 | GDX, LMT, ITA, NEM, GOOG | -1.56% | 0% |
| Grok 4.5 | AMD, INTC, SMCI, NVDA, AAPL | +4.31% | 80% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | NVDA, MSFT, HOOD, CRWD, XOM | +1.15% | 60% |
| DeepSeek V3 | SOXL, INTC, COIN, AMD, GOOGL | +7.69% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-18.
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