Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-18
Grok 4.5 picked AMD, INTC, SMCI, NVDA, AAPL for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +4.31%. Picks that beat SPY: 80%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-18 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-21 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +4.31% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 80% |
| Benchmark return | +1.11% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMD | +10.78% | 68% | +9.67% | Yes |
| 2 | INTC | +9.05% | 65% | +7.95% | Yes |
| 3 | SMCI | +5.09% | 62% | +3.98% | Yes |
| 4 | NVDA | +1.73% | 60% | +0.62% | Yes |
| 5 | AAPL | +0.42% | 55% | -0.69% | No |
The model's market view
Post-Fed rate-hike rebound continues with Nasdaq and semiconductors leading on easing oil prices and stabilized yields. Risk appetite favors high-beta tech and AI-related names into the next session amid limited fresh catalysts and mixed index futures.
Why each pick
AMD
Strong momentum from Thursday's 6.4% surge on chip sector rebound and AI demand resilience. High beta to Nasdaq leadership should drive outperformance versus SPY if risk-on continues. Risks include yield spikes or broader market profit-taking after the Fed move.
INTC
Led chip gains with 7.7% rise Thursday on foundry and AI optimism, high volume confirming interest. Positioned to extend relative strength in semiconductor rotation. Risks are valuation sensitivity to rates and potential dilution from capital needs.
SMCI
AI server pure-play jumped 9.5% Thursday amid data-center demand. Elevated volatility and beta favor further upside in a continued tech rally versus the broader SPY. Risks include high short interest and sensitivity to AI spending slowdown concerns.
NVDA
Core AI leader gained 2.5% Thursday and remains the primary beneficiary of semiconductor strength. Liquidity and index weight support relative outperformance on risk-on days. Risks are crowded positioning and any renewed AI valuation concerns.
AAPL
Noted in buy zones with iPhone product momentum and carrier promotions providing support. Mega-cap stability plus tech beta offers a defensive growth tilt versus SPY. Risks include consumer spending pressure from higher rates and limited near-term catalysts.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | MU, LITE, COHR, AVGO, LRCX | +3.49% | 80% |
| Claude Opus 5 | GDX, LMT, ITA, NEM, GOOG | -1.56% | 0% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | XLF, XLE, JPM, NVDA, GOOG | -0.92% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | NVDA, MSFT, HOOD, CRWD, XOM | +1.15% | 60% |
| DeepSeek V3 | SOXL, INTC, COIN, AMD, GOOGL | +7.69% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-18.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.