Stock Selection: DeepSeek V3's picks for 2026-09-09
DeepSeek V3 picked IONQ, CEG, CHYM, AVO, AAPL for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +1.15%. Picks that beat SPY: 60%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek V3 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v6 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-08 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-09 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +1.15% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.46% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IONQ | -5.76% | 78% | -5.29% | No |
| 2 | CEG | -1.72% | 72% | -1.26% | No |
| 3 | CHYM | +6.93% | 75% | +7.40% | Yes |
| 4 | AVO | +4.27% | 70% | +4.74% | Yes |
| 5 | AAPL | -0.28% | 65% | +0.19% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equities closed lower on Tuesday, September 8, with the S&P 500 down 0.58% to 7,673.52 and SPY off 0.33% at $767.68. Oil above $99/bbl and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.81% weighed on sentiment. Futures were mixed early Wednesday. The market is positioned for Apple's product event and key inflation data later in the week.
Why each pick
IONQ
Thesis: IonQ hosted an Investor Day on September 8 and announced a series of powerful catalysts. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $450–$460 million, a dramatic increase from the prior midpoint of $285 million, following the closing of its SkyWater Technology acquisition. It also unveiled its sixth-generation quantum computing platform, IonQ Superion 256, and announced an $8.18 million quantum security deal with Congruity360. These positive announcements drove a 2.40% gain in the regular session to $40.47, with volume 73% above average, and the stock continued to show strength in after-hours trading. The market is still digesting the bullish implications of these announcements, and the momentum is likely to carry into Wednesday's session, especially as the broader quantum computing sector also rallied (QBTS +6.57%, RGTI +4.01%). Risks: The primary risk is profit-taking after the sharp run-up. IonQ stock has retreated 12% year-to-date, and the SkyWater acquisition is expected to pressure operating margins in the near term. Additionally, quantum computing stocks remain highly speculative and volatile, and any broader market weakness could quickly reverse the gains. The stock's IBD Composite Rating of 25 also indicates weak technical momentum over a longer timeframe.
CEG
Thesis: Constellation Energy is benefiting from powerful structural tailwinds in the clean energy and AI infrastructure space. The company recently raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $11.50–$12.50, citing commercial outperformance and portfolio optimization. Its nuclear generation portfolio is increasingly valued for its ability to provide reliable, continuous power to meet the surging electricity demand from AI data centers. The stock showed resilience on September 8, closing at $299.05 after touching a high of $305.80, and inched higher in after-hours trading to $299.50. With the broader market down, CEG's relative strength and the ongoing narrative of nuclear power as a key beneficiary of the AI boom position it well to outperform. Risks: The stock is up significantly from its recent lows and may be due for a consolidation. Rising Treasury yields (10-year at 4.81%) could pressure utility valuations, and any disappointment in AI-related power demand forecasts could weigh on the stock. Additionally, the Calpine integration, while accretive, carries execution risk.
CHYM
Thesis: Chime Financial surged almost 10% in after-hours trading on September 8 after providing upbeat guidance for the third quarter and full year and announcing an agreement to acquire Stride Bank for $590 million in cash. The stock traded at $35.30 in the after-hours session, up $2.99 (9.25%) from the regular close. The strong guidance and the strategic bank acquisition are significant positive catalysts that are likely to drive continued buying interest into Wednesday's session, especially as the company reported 30% year-over-year revenue growth and strong adjusted EBITDA margins. The momentum from the after-hours rally and the positive sentiment around the company's growth trajectory should allow it to outperform the broader market. Risks: The stock's after-hours surge may invite profit-taking at the open. The bank acquisition, while strategic, introduces integration risks and regulatory scrutiny. Additionally, the fintech sector can be volatile and sensitive to changes in interest rates and consumer spending patterns.
AVO
Thesis: Mission Produce (AVO) shares popped 7.5% in after-hours trading on September 8 after the company beat every analyst polled by FactSet for both earnings per share and revenue in its fiscal third quarter. The company reported revenue of $450 million, significantly exceeding the analyst consensus of $280.73 million. This massive earnings beat is a strong, company-specific catalyst that should drive the stock higher on Wednesday, as the market rewards the substantial outperformance. The positive surprise is likely to attract new buyers and short-covering, creating upward pressure on the stock. Risks: The stock has already moved significantly in after-hours trading, and the initial euphoria may fade by the regular session open. The company's earnings beat was driven by a surge in avocado prices, which could be volatile and not sustainable. Additionally, as a smaller-cap name, the stock can be illiquid and prone to sharp reversals.
AAPL
Thesis: Apple is hosting its highly anticipated product release event on Wednesday, September 9, which is expected to feature the new iPhone 18 models. This event is a classic catalyst that often drives the stock higher in the days leading up to and immediately following the announcement, as investor enthusiasm builds around new product cycles. While Apple has been an exception among mega-cap tech names with a relatively strong performance, the event is expected to provide a positive boost. With the broader market in a cautious mode ahead of inflation data, Apple's event-specific momentum could provide a safe-haven bid, allowing it to outperform the SPY on the day. Risks: The event is widely anticipated, and the stock may have already priced in the positive news. If the new products fail to impress or if there are supply chain concerns, the stock could experience a 'sell the news' reaction. Additionally, the stock offers only about 5% upside according to analyst consensus, limiting its potential relative to other high-conviction picks. Broader market weakness could also overshadow the event-specific catalyst.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | MU, AMD, QCOM, CEG, BE | +0.97% | 60% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | SNDK, CBRS, SOXL, CEG, IONQ | -0.67% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | CRWV, ROIV, INTC, LITE, META | +1.51% | 80% |
| Grok 4.5 | INTC, MU, AMD, GLW, XLE | +2.43% | 100% |
| Claude Opus 5 | XLE, COP, MU, LNG, INTC | +1.73% | 100% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: DeepSeek V3's picks for 2026-09-09.
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