Stock Selection: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-09-10
Gemini 3 Pro picked ASO, NET, AVAV, ORCL, ADBE for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +0.95%. Picks that beat SPY: 40%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 3 Pro |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v6 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-09 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-10 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +0.95% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.60% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASO | +5.99% | 82% | +6.59% | Yes |
| 2 | NET | -0.96% | 78% | -0.36% | No |
| 3 | AVAV | +4.45% | 75% | +5.05% | Yes |
| 4 | ORCL | -5.38% | 70% | -4.78% | No |
| 5 | ADBE | -2.37% | 68% | -1.77% | No |
The model's market view
US equities fell for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, September 9, with the S&P 500 losing 0.48% to close at 7,636.36 and SPY slipping roughly half a percent to $765.16. The tech-heavy Nasdaq showed resilience, finishing down only 0.29% as investors continued to defend technology names despite rising Treasury yields and oil above $100/bbl. The 10-year yield broke through 4.809% resistance to trade around 4.841% after Treasury buybacks came in below market expectations. Semiconductors held up better than the broader market, with SMH closing positive and above its 50-day moving average. After-hours trading saw sharp moves on earnings and corporate announcements, with ASO surging 14%, NET climbing 10.5%, and TTAN tumbling nearly 30%. Thursday brings Oracle and Adobe earnings after the close, with pre-market catalysts likely to drive selective outperformance.
Why each pick
ASO
Thesis: Academy Sports and Outdoors surged 14.40% in after-hours trading to $51.15 following a Q2 earnings beat and guidance upgrade. The company posted a profit beat and raised its forward outlook, triggering a significant post-earnings rally. Momentum from the after-hours move is likely to carry into Thursday's regular session as investors continue to price in the positive surprise. The retail sector has been volatile, but a clean earnings beat with raised guidance typically generates sustained buying interest over the following session. With the broader market under pressure from rising yields and oil prices, company-specific positive catalysts offer a clear path to outperformance. Risks: The stock has already moved sharply higher in after-hours trading, and some profit-taking at the open is possible. Retail stocks can be sensitive to consumer spending data and macro headwinds. However, the magnitude of the beat and guidance raise suggest fundamental support for the move.
NET
Thesis: Cloudflare closed the regular session up 10.57% at $314.35, leading the day's gainers among 111 priority names, and continued its momentum in after-hours trading with an additional 10.51% climb to $314.18. The stock is benefiting from strong AI infrastructure demand and the broader technology resilience seen on Wednesday, where the Nasdaq held up better than the S&P 500. Cloudflare's position as a key beneficiary of the AI and cloud computing buildout provides a fundamental tailwind. The stock's strong relative performance on a down day for the broader market suggests institutional conviction. Risks: The stock has rallied significantly, and president Michelle Zatlyn's $27.6 million stock sale reported on September 9 could raise concerns about insider selling. Additionally, any broad technology pullback could reverse the gains. However, the company's strong market position and the sector's relative strength support continued outperformance.
AVAV
Thesis: AeroVironment jumped 2-3% in after-hours trading after delivering a strong fiscal Q1 beat, reporting adjusted EPS of $0.59 ($0.29 ahead of consensus) on revenue of $480.5 million. The defense contractor reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $2.125–$2.225 billion, supported by sustained international military demand for its autonomous uncrewed aircraft systems and loitering munition platforms. With geopolitical tensions elevated — including U.S.-Iran clashes and oil above $100/bbl — defense spending tailwinds are particularly strong. The company's clean beat and reaffirmed guidance provide a clear catalyst for continued buying interest. Risks: The stock's after-hours move was modest relative to other movers, and defense stocks can be sensitive to geopolitical developments. However, the fundamental beat-and-raise setup is compelling.
ORCL
Thesis: Oracle is set to report earnings after the close on Thursday, September 10, with analysts expecting EPS of $1.73 on revenue of $19.13 billion. The stock is a classic 'pre-earnings momentum' play, as investors often position ahead of technology earnings reports, particularly for companies with strong AI and cloud exposure. Oracle's cloud infrastructure business has been a key growth driver, and any positive pre-announcement or analyst commentary could provide a lift. With the technology sector showing resilience on Wednesday, Oracle is well-positioned to benefit from sector rotation into quality tech names ahead of its print. Risks: If the company delivers in-line or disappointing results, the stock could sell off after the close. Additionally, elevated expectations may already be priced in. However, the pre-earnings setup and the stock's relative strength in the tech sector support a positive bias for the session.
ADBE
Thesis: Adobe is also scheduled to report earnings after the close on Thursday, with consensus estimates of $6.07 EPS on $6.69 billion in revenue. Like Oracle, Adobe benefits from the pre-earnings anticipation trade, particularly as a bellwether for enterprise software and creative cloud demand. The stock has been a consistent performer, and the AI-driven product cycle (Firefly, generative AI integration) provides a positive narrative. With technology holding up better than the broader market on Wednesday, Adobe could see continued buying interest ahead of its print. The company's strong recurring revenue model and pricing power offer a defensive quality within the growth tech space. Risks: Adobe has high expectations baked in, and any guidance disappointment could trigger a post-earnings selloff. The stock's valuation also leaves it vulnerable to macro headwinds. However, the pre-earnings setup and sector resilience support a positive near-term view.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | XLE, MU, AMD, META, QCOM | -1.40% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | ORCL, SNDK, CEG, CBRS, IONQ | -3.00% | 0% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | SIG, ASO, META, DOW, QCOM | +0.80% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | XOM, META, NET, XLE, MU | -0.85% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5 | XLE, MRVL, FRO, META, ORCL | -1.06% | 40% |
| Kimi | VLO, XLE, META, XOM, CULP | +2.09% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-09-10.
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