Stock Selection: DeepSeek V3's picks for 2026-09-22
DeepSeek V3 picked VICR, META, AMD, ARM, SHOP for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +0.03%. Picks that beat SPY: 60%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek V3 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-22 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-23 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +0.03% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.63% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VICR | +4.49% | 80% | +5.12% | Yes |
| 2 | META | -0.62% | 78% | +0.01% | Yes |
| 3 | AMD | -1.29% | 76% | -0.67% | No |
| 4 | ARM | +0.63% | 74% | +1.26% | Yes |
| 5 | SHOP | -6.22% | 72% | -5.59% | No |
The model's market view
US equities are riding a powerful AI-driven rally, with the Nasdaq closing at a record high on Monday and semiconductor stocks leading gains. The momentum is driven by Meta's Muse AI agent traction, AMD's $1 trillion market cap milestone, and Intel's foundry progress. Bitcoin's surge above $85,000 is adding risk-on sentiment, though oil's rebound and geopolitical tensions introduce cross-currents. The session favours high-beta tech and AI-linked names over the broad market, with pre-market action showing continued demand for semiconductors and AI enablers.
Why each pick
VICR
Vicor surged 9.6% in pre-market trading after raising its third-quarter revenue guidance, tied to a new patent licence. The catalyst is substantive and company-specific: the raised guidance signals stronger-than-expected demand for its power modules used in AI data centres. The after-hours quote on September 21 showed $249.08, up 11.25% from the regular-session close of $223.90, indicating strong follow-through buying. Vicor has gained 323% over the past year and is a key enabler of high-density power delivery for AI accelerators. The primary risk is valuation: the stock trades at a P/E of 71.76 and has a beta of 2.36, making it vulnerable to sharp reversals if AI sentiment cools. Reference price is the latest regular-session close from Yahoo Finance, with the after-hours move noted.
META
Meta surged 11.43% on Monday to $741.24 as its Muse AI agent gained rapid traction, reaching 448,000 daily active users within 12 days. The catalyst is substantive: Muse represents a new AI-driven engagement layer across Meta's family of apps, with potential to monetise through advertising and commerce. Meta has also announced a subsea cable project connecting France and the US, reinforcing its AI infrastructure commitment. The stock is up 10.52% over the past week and remains a core AI beneficiary. Risks include regulatory scrutiny, high AI capital expenditure, and the possibility of profit-taking after a sharp one-day move. Reference price is a delayed NASDAQ quote from eToro.
AMD
AMD rose 9.95% on Monday to $615.52, crossing a $1 trillion market capitalisation for the first time. The catalyst is substantive: AMD's data centre GPU roadmap and AI system offerings are gaining traction, and CEO Lisa Su expects data centre sales to double by 2027. The stock has risen for five consecutive days, gaining about 25% cumulatively, and remains the primary challenger to Nvidia in AI accelerators. Risks include high valuation relative to near-term earnings, competition from Nvidia, and the potential for a pullback after a record run. Reference price is the latest regular-session close from Yahoo Finance.
ARM
ARM surged 17.16% on Monday to $322.90, its largest single-day gain since April 2025, as the AI-driven semiconductor rally broadened. The catalyst is substantive: ARM's chip design IP is central to AI data centres and edge computing, and its licensing model benefits from rising chip volumes across multiple customers. The stock is up over 37% in a month but remains below its 52-week high of $452.70. Risks include an extremely high P/E ratio of 326, making it vulnerable to sharp reversals, and the stock's high beta to AI sentiment. Reference price is the latest regular-session close from Yahoo Finance Taiwan.
SHOP
Shopify rose 7.33% on Monday to $137.92 and was up another 2.99% in pre-market trading to $142.05 after announcing a strategic partnership with Meta to integrate the Muse AI agent into its platform. The catalyst is substantive: Muse integration could drive higher conversion and merchant engagement across Shopify's 1.7 million businesses. The stock has a beta of 2.17 and is highly sensitive to AI-related news flow. Risks include competition from other e-commerce platforms, high valuation (P/E of 93), and the possibility that the Muse partnership takes time to monetise. Reference price is a delayed NASDAQ quote from eToro.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | PANW, CRWD, META, LRCX, AVGO | +0.73% | 60% |
| Claude Opus 5 | USAR, IWM, EMAT, MP, XXI | -0.37% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | GOOG, NVDA, SOXL, IONQ, SMR | -0.47% | 20% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | NVDA, SOXL, GOOG, AAPL, MSFT | -1.71% | 20% |
| Grok 4.5 | VKTX, AMD, INTC, SOXX, META | -0.07% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: DeepSeek V3's picks for 2026-09-22.
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