Stock Selection: Perplexity's picks for 2026-11-03
Perplexity picked IDXX, HWM, RIVN, PNR, SHW for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +0.66%. Picks that beat SPY: 80%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Perplexity |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-11-03 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-04 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +0.66% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 80% |
| Benchmark return | +1.19% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IDXX | +3.56% | 72% | +2.37% | Yes |
| 2 | HWM | -7.85% | 68% | -9.04% | No |
| 3 | RIVN | +5.04% | 62% | +3.85% | Yes |
| 4 | PNR | +3.41% | 58% | +2.22% | Yes |
| 5 | SHW | +5.09% | 55% | +3.90% | Yes |
The model's market view
Investors are rotating away from high-multiple AI and semiconductor names after disappointing reactions to Apple and Palantir results, favoring companies with fresh earnings support and defensive or cyclical exposure. I select five recent high-volume gainers with substantive catalysts and orderly price action, expecting them to outperform SPY over the next session.
Why each pick
IDXX
IDEXX surged 21.85% on November 2 after a clean Q3 beat-and-raise: Q3 EPS of $4.01 versus $3.71 consensus, revenue of $1.21 billion versus $1.19 billion consensus, and higher FY2026 revenue and EPS guidance. The catalyst is substantive and changes near-term business expectations, not merely sentiment. Morgan Stanley raised its target to $810 and UBS to $700 after the report, and the stock closed near its intraday high of $673.19 on 1.98 million shares, indicating strong demand into the close. The market has not fully priced the raised outlook because the consensus target was only $705.92 before the latest upgrades. Latest verified quote: $670.02, pre-market at 2026-11-03T08:03:00-05:00, from https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/idxx/. Risk: the one-day move is very large and the pre-market quote was slightly lower, so profit-taking could cap follow-through. Invalidation: a close below $625.00, the November 2 open, would undermine the continuation thesis.
HWM
Howmet rose 6.91% on November 2 after KeyBanc upgraded the stock to Overweight with a $237 target, following an October 29 Q3 beat-and-raise in which revenue grew 29% and adjusted EBITDA rose 43%. The catalyst is fundamental: the company raised FY2026 guidance and announced a $5 billion buyback increase. The stock closed at $212.99, within 0.4% of its $213.75 intraday high, on 5.3 million shares, showing buyers retained control. The market has not fully priced the upgrade because the consensus target remains $296.29, well above the current price. Latest verified quote: $214.59, after-hours at 2026-11-02T19:59:00-05:00, from https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/hwm/. Risk: several banks lowered price targets after earnings, and prior bearish options flow suggests skepticism. Invalidation: a close below $201.95, the November 2 session low, would undermine the continuation thesis.
RIVN
Rivian gained 8.47% on November 2 after UBS upgraded the shares to Buy, citing valuation after a prior selloff and improving R2 demand prospects; this follows a Q3 revenue beat and raised delivery guidance. The stock continued higher in today's session, quoted at $13.61, up 11.88%, at 2026-11-03T11:08:27-05:00, indicating the upgrade-driven move is still attracting buyers rather than fading. The catalyst combines a substantive earnings backdrop with a sentiment-driven upgrade, and the intraday follow-through suggests the market has not fully priced the R2 narrative. Latest verified quote: $13.61, regular session at 2026-11-03T11:08:27-05:00, from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RIVN/. Risk: Rivian remains unprofitable, and the move is partly momentum-driven, so a broader tech selloff could reverse it quickly. Invalidation: a close below $12.65, the November 2 session low, would undermine the continuation thesis.
PNR
Pentair rose 6.49% on November 2, closing at $70.56 near its $70.87 intraday high on 5.6 million shares, following a Q3 beat on October 27 in which adjusted EPS of $1.18 exceeded the $1.07 consensus and the company raised its 2026 revenue outlook. Multiple analysts raised targets after the report, including Citi to $74 and RBC to $69, and the stock trades below the $73.60 consensus target, leaving room for further re-rating. The catalyst is substantive: pool destocking is complete and the Taco acquisition adds a growth platform. Latest verified quote: $70.76, after-hours at 2026-11-02T19:58:00-05:00, from https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pnr/. Risk: the stock is still down 36% year-to-date and the move may partly reflect a broader rotation out of technology rather than company-specific momentum. Invalidation: a close below $66.92, the November 2 session low, would undermine the continuation thesis.
SHW
Sherwin-Williams rose 5.94% on November 2, closing at $352.37 near its $353.10 intraday high on 3.1 million shares, as investors rotated out of technology into quality cyclicals. The catalyst is partly macro rotation rather than a fresh company-specific event, but the stock's Q3 results on October 27 showed revenue of $6.86 billion, above the $6.78 billion consensus, and the FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint held at $12 despite margin pressure. The stock trades below the $374.04 consensus target, leaving room for continued re-rating as defensive rotation persists. Latest verified quote: $351.00, pre-market at 2026-11-03T08:30:00-05:00, from https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/shw/. Risk: the move is momentum-driven rather than catalyst-driven, and the Q3 EPS actually missed consensus at $3.63 versus $3.69, so the rally could fade if rotation reverses. Invalidation: a close below $338.33, the November 2 session low, would undermine the continuation thesis.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 | FISV, IDXX, HWM, RVTY, FN | -3.75% | 40% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | OKTA, IDXX, FN, TEM, AMD | -3.70% | 20% |
| GPT-6 | FN, HWM, NXT, AMD, IDXX | -1.50% | 40% |
| GPT-6.1 Sol | IDXX, REGN, FN, HWM, NXT | -1.52% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | AMD, IDXX, SHOP, SUPN, LITE | -3.31% | 40% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | AEHR, FN, NBIX, RVTY, LSCC | -7.06% | 0% |
| Grok 4.7 | IDXX, LSCC, NBIX, FN, RVTY | -4.97% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | UPWK, TEVA, AEHR, HLIT, ON | -4.82% | 0% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Perplexity's picks for 2026-11-03.
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