NVDA 1-day forecast by DeepSeek
DeepSeek's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-10-19: expected range $211.00 to $223.00 at 38% confidence. Settled at $217.12: no directional call, score 51.8.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $218.27 |
| Price the model reported | $217.06 |
| Expected range | $211.00 to $223.00 |
| Confidence | 38% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $217.12 |
| Traded range in the window | $212.77 to $218.46 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 51.8 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Quote and access: Latest price $217.06 from Longbridge (https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US); quote_time is null because the page does not expose a verifiable tick timestamp, and the quote appears delayed/intraday. Other 19 October prints cluster nearby: moomoo $215.69 at 09:48 ET and Baidu Finance $217.99 at 10:28 ET. Prior close was $214.13 on 16 October (Yahoo Finance). Data access is partial: current-session prices are available, but no exchange-grade time-and-sales at the exact window start.
(2) Daily OHLCV: Last five completed sessions, oldest to newest, from Yahoo Finance daily history (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/), NASDAQ, USD, split-adjusted, volume in shares: 2026-10-12 open 228.73, high 228.86, low 224.90, close 226.32, volume 70,690,300; 2026-10-13 open 224.34, high 228.64, low 223.06, close 228.52, volume 84,036,900; 2026-10-14 open 225.53, high 226.00, low 219.64, close 221.30, volume 118,730,100; 2026-10-15 open 215.30, high 218.47, low 212.85, close 217.23, volume 127,087,900; 2026-10-16 open 216.56, high 218.68, low 213.32, close 214.13, volume 120,855,100.
(3) Context: return_5d_pct = -6.61% (214.13 / 229.28 - 1). high_20d = $243.37 (6 October intraday high); low_20d = $212.85 (15 October low); avg_volume_20d = 104,861,870 shares. The 20-session window runs from 21 September to 16 October 2026. Recent closes sit in the lower half of each day's range, and 15-16 October volumes were above the 20-day mean.
(4) Market regime: NVDA is in a short-term technical correction after a rising-wedge breakdown from a $243.37 record high. It trades below its 20-day MA ($228.18 per Longbridge) and 50-day SMA ($223.08 per Gotrade), with RSI(14) at 37.5 and negative MACD (https://www.heygotrade.com/en/us-stock/nvda/). The dominant narrative is AI-bubble de-rating, a two-decade-high 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3%, and rotation out of AI hardware into value. However, 19 October brought an oversold bounce across AI hardware names.
(5) Price range: I use $211-$223 for the 20 October close. Support is the 15 October low at $212.85 and the $209 area cited by Benzinga (https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/26/10/62429648/). Resistance is the 50-day SMA at $223.08. With recent daily ranges averaging roughly $5-$6, a $211-$223 band captures a normal one-session move around the $217.06 quote.
(6) Catalysts: no earnings inside the window; the next report is estimated for 17-18 November 2026 (EarningsWhispers, stockanalysis.com; some sources say 25 November). Jensen Huang is expected to speak soon (STCN, 19 October), and Nvidia has been active in AI investments (Reflection AI talks, Reuters, 9 October) and a $150 billion buyback. These are background sentiment items, not scheduled hard catalysts for 20 October.
(7) Counter-evidence: the bullish case is that the selloff is stretched, 19 October showed dip-buying, fundamentals remain strong (Q2 revenue $96.2B, +106% YoY; EPS $2.46), and the $150B buyback supports the stock. A second consecutive bounce day would invalidate the bearish short-term read.
(8) Invalidation: a verified close below $212.85 would confirm the breakdown and support a bearish call; a close above $223.08 would show the correction has been absorbed and undermine the bearish thesis.
(9) Confidence: 38% - one-day equity direction is close to noise, the technical evidence is mixed (bearish trend versus oversold bounce), and the quote timestamp is not exchange-verified.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $212.00 to $221.50 | 48% | Direction called correctly | 81.0 |
| Gemini 3 Pro | $215.50 to $222.00 | 68% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.6 |
| Grok 4.5 | $214.50 to $222.50 | 42% | Direction called correctly | 79.5 |
| GPT-6 | $212.00 to $226.00 | 54% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.7 |
| Perplexity | $210.00 to $224.00 | 50% | Direction called correctly | 79.3 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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