NVDA 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-10-19: expected range $214.50 to $222.50 at 42% confidence. Settled at $217.12: direction called correctly, score 79.5.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $218.27 |
| Price the model reported | $219.20 |
| Expected range | $214.50 to $222.50 |
| Confidence | 42% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $217.12 |
| Traded range in the window | $212.77 to $218.46 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 79.5 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from multiple sources (MarketWatch, Investing.com, Stocknear, TradeSmith, CNBC) show NVDA trading near $218.50-$219.40 in regular session on 2026-10-19 around 12:00-12:30 EDT (16:00-16:30 UTC). Prior close 2026-10-16 was $214.13. Daily OHLCV (completed sessions, NASDAQ, USD, share volume, split-adjusted): 2026-10-12 O 228.73 H 228.86 L 224.90 C 226.32 V 70.7M; 2026-10-13 O 224.34 H 228.64 L 223.06 C 228.52 V 84.0M; 2026-10-14 O 225.53 H 226.00 L 219.64 C 221.30 V 118.7M; 2026-10-15 O 215.30 H 218.47 L 212.85 C 217.23 V 127.1M; 2026-10-16 O 216.56 H 218.68 L 213.32 C 214.13 V 121.3M. Sources: marketwatch.com, stocknear.com, investing.com. return_5d_pct ≈ -5.4% (214.13 / 226.32 - 1). high_20d $243.37 (2026-10-06), low_20d $212.85 (2026-10-15), avg_volume_20d ≈ 105-110M shares.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Short-term pullback from early-October peak near $243, with three consecutive lower closes into Oct 16 and elevated volume on down days. Intraday Oct 19 shows recovery from prior close with price reclaiming $218-219 area on lighter relative volume so far. Regime is consolidation after a multi-week decline from the 52-week high, still well above the March 2026 low of $164.27.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live ~$219 quote. Recent daily ranges have been $4-6; ATR near $5-6. Range $214.50-$222.50 covers roughly one ATR below the current level (near the Oct 15-16 lows) and a modest extension above the session high so far (~$219.6). No assumption of a large gap or breakout over one session.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No verified company-specific catalyst (earnings next estimated mid-to-late November 2026 per AlphaStreet/Wall Street Horizon). Recent news (UK/US research commitments, product updates) already absorbed. Move is primarily technical/sentiment within the ongoing AI-related consolidation.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Counter-evidence is the multi-day downtrend and higher volume on declines, which could resume if the recovery fails. Invalidation of the neutral/mild-up bias would be a close below the Oct 15 low of $212.85 on elevated volume, signaling continuation of the pullback.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live intraday and multi-source daily data support the price and recent path, but one-day direction after a recovery bounce is inherently noisy; no catalyst and mixed short-term signals keep confidence modest at 42%.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $212.00 to $221.50 | 48% | Direction called correctly | 81.0 |
| Gemini 3 Pro | $215.50 to $222.00 | 68% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.6 |
| DeepSeek | $211.00 to $223.00 | 38% | No directional call | 51.8 |
| GPT-6 | $212.00 to $226.00 | 54% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.7 |
| Perplexity | $210.00 to $224.00 | 50% | Direction called correctly | 79.3 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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